Okay, I know I just did one of these yesterday, but it looks like a whole lot of new data came out today that made yesterday's projections irrelevant so that was my bad for jumping the gun and not waiting for more changes in data to begin with. I'm just going to make some modifications here.
Aggregate polling
Clinton - 46.4%, Trump - 42.0% (4.4% Clinton)
Clinton keeps surging ahead post convention and is now up 4 points over Trump. This is looking worse and worse every day.
Aggregate polling with third party candidates
Clinton- 42.2%, Trump- 37.8%, Johnson- 7.4%, Stein- 3.2% (4.4% Clinton)
She's gone up a lot in recent polls and again, just as my article last week indicated, third parties are "taking" from both candidates equally.
Electoral College
No changes from yesterday in methodology. Just data.
Arizona - 0.5% Clinton (no change)
Florida - 0.3% Trump (no change)
Georgia - 4.0% Trump (down from 4.5%)
Iowa - 0.5% Clinton (no change)
Kentucky - 3.0% Clinton (no change)
Michigan - 5.2% Clinton (no change)
Mississippi - 3.0% Trump
Missouri - 6.3% Trump
Nevada - 2.5% Clinton (flipped from 0.5% Trump)
New Hampshire - 3.7% Clinton (no change)
North Carolina - 2.0% Clinton (no change)
Ohio - 0.8% Clinton (no change)
Oregon - 4.5% Clinton (no change)
Pennsylvania - 5.0% Clinton (up from 4.4%)
Texas - 5.0% Trump
Virginia - 5.3% Clinton (no change)
Wisconsin - 5.6% Clinton (no change)
Maine CD2 - 1% Trump (no change)
Election Scenarios
These new changes do make some differences in the electoral college level
Most likely scenario with toss ups - 301-172 Clinton
Most likely scenario (best guess) - 336-202 Clinton
All toss ups Clinton (Clinton + 1) - 366-172 Clinton
Clinton + 2 - 366-172 Clinton
Clinton + 3 - 372-166 Clinton
Clinton + 4 - 388-150 Clinton
Clinton + 5 - 426-112 Clinton
All toss ups Trump (Trump + 1) - 301-237 Clinton
Trump + 2 - 286-252 Clinton
Trump + 3 - 272-266 Clinton
Trump + 4 - 268-270 Trump
Trump + 5 - 241-297 Trump
Trump + 6 - 202-336 Trump
All things considered, Nevada shifting to being more pro Clinton helped secure that state's lead. Trump also saw some erosion in Georgia, where Clinton now gets that in the +4 scenario. Pennsylvania now being +5 doesnt change the scenario much since I basically still flip the states on even numbers, but if it gets any stronger for Clinton, it's going to basically be as good of a stronghold as Michigan, Wisconsin, and Virginia are right now.
Conclusion
All in all, this is not good for Trump and he looks like he is going to lose big. He's losing support like crazy and his already low chances are becoming more distant by the day. It could be the only reason Trump gained at all was because of his convention and the democrats having a really bad week, and that trend is now reversing itself and regressing to the mean.
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