Sunday, December 4, 2016

Vote count update

Okay, well, I officially lost all rights to say that Clinton got a significantly fewer amount of votes than Obama did in 2012. Apparently that 60 million figure was more or a preliminary count and now Clinton is at 65 million votes and Trump at 62 million votes. Despite losing the popular vote by around 2.5 million votes, Trump still won because of the electoral college.

I also want to look at what happened in the rust belt again vs. 2012, because my last analysis showed that voters didn't show up. But if there are more votes in, the picture might change.

Michigan

Clinton net votes vs. 2012: -295,730

Trump net votes vs. 2012: +164,287

Total net vote difference (including third parties): +68,323

Ohio

Clinton net votes vs. 2012: -433,457

Trump net votes vs. 2012: +179,598

Total net vote difference (including third parties): -84,353

Pennsylvania

Clinton net votes vs. 2012: -75,852 

Trump net votes vs. 2012: +280,753

Total net vote difference (including third parties): +336,634

Wisconsin

Clinton net votes vs. 2012: -239,162

Trump net votes vs. 2012: +3,966

Total net vote difference (including third parties): -93,121

Updated opinion

All in all, my opinion is weakened, but I still ultimately see the election in a similar way. In three of the four states I looked at, all of which Obama won in 2012, Clinton's losses far exceeded Trump's gains. People stayed home or voted third party. The democrats had nothing to offer the rust belt. In Pennsylvania, we saw a general shift to Trump from Clinton. Voter turnout increased, and this favored Trump. On the country level, if we had a popular vote, we can now say that people did come out for Clinton and would have won, but as far as the electoral college goes, she lost miserably in the mid west.

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