So, I'm seeing betting sites are now favoring the democrats to win the senate in the 2026 election. And....uh....it's still republican favored. Trust me.
We've discussed the map. Long time readers will understand just how insane it would be for the democrats to actually win the senate. Is it possible? Sure. Is it likely to happen? Eh, probably not. I still consider the senate to be lean R.
Here's where things stand right now:
Yep....still republican led....
Now, with all of that considered, let's consider how insane it is that the democrats are doing as good as they are here. As it is, they need to keep all existing seats and flip four new ones.
They're at risk of losing Michigan. We will need to see how the data shifts closer to the election on that one. Two candidates are very similarly likely to go up against the republican nominee, and one favors the dems by 1.3, and the other the GOP by 1.5. It averages out to R+0.1, so basically a tossup.
And then we need four new states. North Carolina is a shoe in. Maine is looking increasingly likely to lean dem given Graham Platner is now the favored nominee. If Mills runs, the GOP will probably win that though. Mills has very low enthusiasm.
And then you need two more. Right now, the races most covered are Ohio, where we just got a new R+2 poll there, making it shift to R+1.4 from R+1. James Talarico won the dem primary in Texas, but the whole Paxton vs Cornyn thing is in the air right now, Paxton is R+1, Cornyn R+2. So that averages to 1.5.
All that being said, I still give the senate to republicans. Democrats CAN win it, don't get me wrong, but they're not FAVORED to win it based on current polling data. I still give the edge to republicans retaining control.
A lot can change between now and November. Remember, polling has shifted roughly 7-8 points in the democrats' favor since 2024. And we're now at a point where if it shifts any more...yeah, we COULD see the kind of democratic landslides that make something like democratic control of the senate possible.
But as of now, the odds of that happening are roughly 1 in 3.
Let's not get high on hopium here. Remember 2024? So many dems had this idea that we'd just magically outdo the polling data, and while, if anything, I would expect the error to work in favor of democrats, let's not get ahead of ourselves here. We'll need to win several rather red leaning states to pull off an actual senate victory here. We're talking Ohio and Texas, and if not them, something like Florida, Iowa, Nebraska, or Alaska here. Again, it can happen. I dont even have polling data on those states. Would I count on it though? No.
So...again. 1 in 3. Nice, healthy odds given the circumstances, but no, they're not favored...at least not yet. Of course, I expect this year to be packed with all kinds of Trump behavior that alienates voters. We got this war with iran, gas prices going up, talk of a draft, talk of him trying to steal the 2026 midterms somehow. I mean, really. It baffles me he's doing as good as he is, but that's why I keep saying his supporters are in a cult. They seem to be very resistant to our country seemingly being on fire and still act like "this is fine." No, it's not fine. But...that's where the voters are. And that's what the map for the senate is.
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