So....let's really start thinking about this empirically. I understand my simulation model is kinda flawed, but it's good or close situations like this. With Platner dropping out, let's assume a blank slate for Maine. We don't know who the candidate is, what their polling data will look like and while I've seen internals going around, who knows. Maine is also a very weird state with polling, with Collins being a historic underperformer. So we really don't know where Maine is right now. it was at D+0.7% with Platner still in, but that was pre scandal, and I'm gonna assume it's now closer to R+4.
In terms of my raw election model, with Maine being neutral, we're at a 50% chance to win the senate, with Maine and Iowa both being coin flips, and the result being 50-48 with either faction gaining up to 2 seats.
We could see 52-48 DEMs as Iowa and Maine go democrat. 50-50 if both go republican, or maybe some 51-49 mix as one goes each way. Given how close the other races are, we could see anything from 48-52 REP to 54-46 DEM. It really is up in the air. I mean, ANY of these outcomes is reasonably possible. This is why I'm saying that the senate doesnt RELY on maine, but it does help to win it. There are like 6 races in coin flip range and any of them could go for either party. We might see the republicans sweep all 6, the democrats sweep all 6, or some mix in between. And maine itself doesnt change my main model much given Iowa also being as pivotal here.
With that said, let's discuss simulations. With Maine being at 0.0% or a tie, if I do 100 simulations with my current model, I get:
Dems: 50
Reps: 17
Tie: 33
We can get some variation between sample sizes of 100, but anything within, say, 3-5% of that is probably within the margin of error I'd say.
With that said, let's change Maine to R+4, simulating an unpopular outcome for replacing platner (or even a possible keeping him on the ballot, since I'd estimate R+4 is about where the race is post scandal)::
This is what the main forecast looks like, given it operates on a wave theory of elections, it's not much different, but that can lack some variation. If we assume individual outcomes aren't linked, and we go with another 100 simulations, we get:
Dems: 36
Reps: 35
Tie: 29
It seemed pretty even between the three options with Maine being R+4. And it did hurt the dems' chances at taking the senate. One less seat functionally up or grabs means one less seat to their totals in the simulator a decent amount of the time, meaning that given near 50-50 nature of the senate predictions, means that assuming we dont assume a wave does most of the work here, we could see a lot of weird scenarios happen. Democrats go from a 50% chance of winning in my simulator to a 36% chance, with the republicans making up most of that ground directly, going from 17% to 35%.
If we want to look at it simply, I'd say this. If Maine is a tossup, the general distribution of results is 50% D, 33% tie, and 17% R. That's 1/2 of the results being D, 1/3 being ties, and 1/6 being R. Given the GOP controls the vice presidency, that's functionally 50-50.
Assuming that the dems screw up on the platner replacement (or alternatively, if he stays in), we could see a shift to 33% D, 33% R, and 33% tie. All 3 outcomes are roughly as likely as each other, +/- some small amount of variation. That amounts to a 2/3 chance the republicans functionally maintain the senate.
So yeah, losing Maine WILL hurt the democrats, and it CAN in theory decide the whole thing assuming all the tossups are functionally independent of each other. Whether you see elections like that is another thing. I think in the real world, error is gonna go one way or another, meaning most will go one way or the other. A stronger blue wave will amount to a bluer map, a weaker one will lead to a redder one. Remember what happened in 2024, my map had all kinda of weird combinations of the 7 swing states going red and blue, but in reality what ended up happening was all went red as trump systemically overperformed. Had harris overperformed, we could've seen the states swing back the other way and we could've seen a 319-219 outcome. The same can happen here. So it really depends what kind of model you believe in. With that said, if wave theory of elections turns out to be accurate, we could see a blowout for either side, with Maine not making much of a difference. But assuming the result is somewhere in between and things are a lot more marginal, and individual error on the state level matters a lot more, yeah, losing Maine will functionally destroy the democrats' current electoral advantage in the senate.
Just something more to think about for anyone thinking of protest voting against the eventually democratic nominee in maine.
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