Election Update 7/3/26

 So, it's hot. Like 100+ degrees here. 110+ heat index. My PC is in an un air conditioned room. And I'm doing this from a tablet where my charts have formatting issues. So this is going to go a little differently formatting wise, but it's still the same forecast.

On the forecasts, a lot has changed, especially with the senate, and I'll walk you through it.

Senate

So, as I said, a lot of changes, not all of them positive. Georgia finally has new data which makes it pretty solidly Likely D at a 93% chance at winning. Graham Platner is losing ground in Maine due to a combination of his scandals and democrats refusing to properly prop him up. He's still favored to win, but it's officially a toss up, and I'm not gonna lie. Susan Collins is an overperformer there. So this is BAD for him. He's shifted like 7 points in the past month. He's down just ahead of where Janet Mills was, so this race is becoming increasingly competitive. 

New polls also flipped Texas and Alaska back to the republicans, with Iowa being a toss up. It goes back and forth. Those races are all functionally tossups. And of course Michigan is still a toss up. El Sayed has a slight lead there and he's polling on par with Haley Stevens. Mallory McMorrow loses to the republicans but she aint gonna get it anyway. 

But yeah. The senate is now a tossup. Sure, its 55% chance the democrats win and a 44% chance republicans win, with the most likely outcome being 51-52D and 48-49R, but really, anything from 48-52R to 54-46D are ALL within tossup territory. A 2 point difference marks a shift from one party picking up 6 seats to the other, it really is a dead heat.

House

The house has been holding rather steady. We're still at roughly D+8 versus 2024, giving us a 96% chance of taking the house, with a 231-204 outcome being what my model produces. Most models seem to hover around the 230 mark for democrats, and I believe it. No further comment.

Governors

I finally got some data on Georgia and Maine and it's good news for democrats. Democrats are also doing quite well in Iowa and Ohio, even more so than the senate counterparts are. Yeah, this is a bad year for republicans.

Still kinda hope Hong doesnt win in Wisconsin though. I like democratic socialist types, dont get me wrong, but I dont think she can pull it off. 

Conclusion

So yeah, the senate is a dead heat, Georgia's looking pretty good. Maine isn't on the senate front, but is on the governor front. And a lot of races are pretty much tossups. The house is likely gonna be a blowout for democrats, in the senate ANYTHING can happen. The smallest shifts in public opinion will determine control of the senate. And yeah. That's where we're at. I just wanted to do a biweekly update here.