There isn't a whole lot to discuss this week, other than the house, it's mostly relying on data from the previous update.
Senate
The senate is still at 51-48D, with Iowa as a true tossup. We don't know what's going on with Maine at all, I'm just holding Platner's numbers for now when he dropped out. It's close to 50-50 anyway and that's roughly where the race is. Democrats hold a slight advantage, but due to declining GCV numbers, we might be seeing a sagging here too that isn't represented by these dated numbers.
If the senate shifts as much as the house over the last two weeks, THIS is the actual outcome: A 52-48 republican blowout. And it can happen. This is an extremely possible outcome. heck, I dont trust nebraska's numbers either so this could even end up being 47-53R, with the senate maintaining its current composition except trading Michigan for North Carolina. Anything can happen and a slight breeze can flip the senate either way.
House
As indicated by the senate discussion, the real shift since two weeks ago is the house. The generic congressional vote has narrows significantly. I started noticing it sagging with the last round of predictions, but yeah, it's narrowing a lot. Why is that? Well, here's my theory. Once again, we got 40% of the country ride or die on republicans, 40% ride or die on democrats. The remaining 20% bounce back and forth, either not voting and being less reliable voters, or ping ponging between the parties. You got some voters who are less reliable, are more motivated to vote for democrats when republicans are in office and vice versa, and you got swing voters who bounce between the two. neither party is really popular. Even though the democrats stand to gain over 2024 simply by being out of power, they're not really popular. And a lot of their gains is due to backlash to the Trump administration.
I think gas prices have a lot to do with this for example. The Iran war spiked gas prices A LOT, but now things are stabilizing a bit more, even going down a bit. Gas is nowhere near back to normal, but the shock of the change has worn off, and people are slightly less reflexively against him. Still, you got around 7.5% of the country that has shifted from 2024, and while it's normally around 8-9% this election cycle, yeah, the GCV has gone down a little for democrats. Still a solid showing that doesn't fundamentally change the model, but it is going to reduce the projected margin to 230-205, with a 93% chance of them taking the house. And because people are wondering how the model works because I dont show the whole spreadsheet due to its sheer size, I'll discuss a bit what this model looks like under different scenarios.
So, if we get the 2024 result again, we get 215-220 in raw results, although due to gerrymandering I would predict 213-222R under such circumstances. There are 4 gerrymandered races on my radar, with 3 being gerrymandered in favor of republicans, meaning the dems are projected to win 3 seats simply due to gerrymandering, while the dems are projected to win 1. This gives us a net of 2 seats in favor of the republicans, hence the "corrected result" category.
If we have, say, a 0% tied GCV, it shifts the result 2.7% to the left, because the end result of 2024 was R+2.7. This would give us a 223-211 raw result, or a 221-213 corrected result, with the dems having a roughly 61% chance of winning the house under those circumstances. All it would really take for dems to flip the house from 2024 is a R+1.1 GCV, meaning a 1.6% shift to the left. And just to give you an idea of what the result is at various milestones and what seats flip, this is what we get:
R+2- 214-221R, IA-01 flips
R+2- 214-221R, IA-01 flips
R+1- 218-217D, CO-08, PA-07, PA-10, PA-08 flip
D/R+0- 221-214D, NE-02, AK-AL, AZ-06 flip
D+1- 222-213D, MI-07 flips
D+2- 226-209D, AZ-01, IA-03, VA-02 flip
D+3- 227-208D, NJ-07 flips
D+4- 229-206D, MI-10, NY-17 flip
D+5- 231-204D, CA-22, MT-01 flip
D+6- 231-204D, no flips
D+7- 233-202D, AZ-02, FL13 flip
D+8- 234-201D, WI-01 flips
D+9- 234-201D, no flips
D+10- 235-200D, MI-04 flips
Now, some of these flips might be questionable. Some balk at say, AK-AL or MT-01 flipping. However, they went red by such a narrow margin in the previous cycle that we gotta consider it a possibility. The model suggests they should be flippable, although individual races and candidates might shift things.
Still, I think it's pretty reasonable that the dems will flip the house no matter what, as long as they comfortably outdo their 2024 baseline, which should basically be their floor given this is expected to be a blue wave year. D+4-5 seems to be where we're at right now, although we were at D+6 not long ago. Honestly, any of these results should comfortably put the house in democrat hands.
Again, the real question is what the SENATE is gonna do. As we know, while the house is relatively inflexible, the senate has the potential of wide variation with only a 1-2 point shift in either direction. Well, if anything, despite what my model says, I'd be inclined to believe a more conservative outcome where the dems have a competitive showing in a lot of states like Ohio, Texas, Alaska, Nebraska (Osborn/Independent), and Iowa, but I dont think they'll take them. I've seen this song and dance before. We keep having this weird trend as a party where polls have us within a few points of some "red wall" states and then they end up going R+6 or something. I think it'll happen here. We'll flip North Carolina, and maybe Maine, and maybe keep Michigan, but honestly? Im not a big believer in us going further than that. Now, it CAN happen. And even a few flips could make a huge difference for us here, but again, I'd be inclined to lean a bit more conservative on the senate. Even the house, we might underperform my prediction a couple of seats, but even, say, 226-209 or something would likely benefit us. I mean, as far as I'm concerned, the house is a foregone conclusion, it's just what the margins will end up being.
Governors
Conclusion
So yeah, we've had a lull in polling. I probably would have cancelled this week's prediction if I didnt wanna ramble about the house as much as I did. And yeah. Not much has changed. Senate data largely the same, governor's data exactly the same, house is a bit narrower due to a sagging GCV average, but all in all the house is pretty rock solid and likely gonna flip no matter what happens unless trump massively reshapes the electorate through authoritarianism. The real question is whether the senate is shifting too, and a lack of polling data isn't showing it. That can be consequential.
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