So, the reality it setting in for a lot of people that if Graham Platner steps down, he's gonna be replaced with someone. And that process is gonna be relatively undemocratic, and the Maine democratic party is essentially foisting a candidate on the public. This has been a reality I was aware of from the beginning, which is why I have the even handed approach of "yeah platner is a rapist and should drop out, BUT that doesnt mean we should trust the dems here." I mean, the dems have had it out for platner from the get go, and a lot of it IS ideological. They despise "democratic socialists", see them as an invading force within the democratic party, and wanna control their spread within the party as much as humanly possible. It is possible that they'll use this moment to force some moderate down our throats and telling us to 'vote blue no matter who", but I think the American public is finally getting fed up with that. It's like the dam is breaking, and most people online are like NO, I WON'T DO THAT, with them threatening to vote for Collins or stay home if the nominee isn't a close ideological replacement of Platner. hell, even Joy Ann Reid is saying it, and I typically see her as an establishment figure. So this is WILD. The dam is breaking in the democratic party, and we might finally be seeing a generational shift toward progressivism, with people breaking the ultimate taboo within the party of sitting out the election if it doesn't go their way.
I cant blame them. My own stance on these issues is well documented over the years. I'm spiritually on board with these guys, but I do think this moment is too consequential to history to risk blowing the election. Donald Trump is a tyrant. At least a wanna be tyrant. He wants to destroy democracy and subvert it to his will. A rebellion within the democratic party at this moment in time could empower him to do things far worse than what the dems are doing. With Trump, he's running against a clock, that clock runs out in November, or arguably January when the new congress is seated. He's almost certainly gonna lose the house. He's at risk of losing the senate, with Maine's seat being a potential flip that could contribute to that.
I would say, at minimum, we NEED to win the house. We do that, we can obstruct him. If we have the senate, even better, but I dont think it will matter as long as we dont hold 60 seats due to the filibuster. So...senate control, arguably less important here.
Maine's seat is also unique. Susan Collins is one of the most moderate, inoffensive republicans in the country. A 90s establishment republican. While she will side with trump more than she won't, I dont believe she is a threat to democracy. According to the data, she votes with Trump 95% of the time, but has broken with him on several major issues of consequence. 5% doesn't sound like a lot, but she has put a brake on Trump's more extreme tendencies, and that does matter. The fact is, you NEED to be moderate to keep a red seat in a blue state.
As far as winning the senate goes, I mean, while I initially saw Maine as one of the easier pick ups, being harder than north carolina, but significantly easier than Ohio, Texas, Iowa, or Alaska, it seems to be polling in line with them. Remember, this is where the Senate stands. Not much changed in the past week, so I'm just going to put up last week's graphics.
So...the senate is tricky. We can win it, we shouldn't count on it. We technically have paths to win it without maine, but maine could make it easier. If we do take it, Im not sure we can do much with it we can't do without it, assuming we take the house (we only need one chamber to obstruct trump's agenda), Collins is a vote against Trump's most extreme impulses anyway, and I'm not sure a centrist democrat would do much to advance a progressive agenda.
So...I guess I'll leave it at this: do what you will, vote your conscience. Democracy belongs to the voters, and I'm unclear what stance I would take myself. I do believe we are at a point where we need to weaken the GOP as much as possible to isolate and contain trump's impulses. Maine's senate seat could contribute to this, but I do not believe it is pivotal. An extra seat is an extra vote, but if a moderate obstructs us anyway, it's not gonna matter a whole lot. At the same time, Collins is THEIR moderate. She is basically a "RINO" by modern standards in the eyes of many republicans, and while she votes their party line 95% of the time, that 5% she breaks matters, and often represents principled stands against Trump's worst impulses and bills. With that said, I can reconcile a refusal to vote for the democrat here with not really throwing the entire election cycle to the GOP. Again, our lock on the house is near certain. I have a 96-97% chance that we win the house. Senate, again, its a coin flip. Maine could help, but there are likely other paths if we lose that one. And honestly, the chance that it will all come down to maine, while possible, isn't necessarily likely. Given the nature of polling error and how many seats are tossups, I could envision a situation where either the GOP sweeps the tossups and maintains control, or the democrats sweep them and gain control. In such a situation, Maine itself is only one piece of the puzzle. It helps. And in more marginal outcomes, it CAN mean the difference between retaking the senate and not.
But yeah. Again, idk. As I said, I think my final advice here is to vote your conscience. Trump is dangerous and should be controlled, but I dont like the democrats possibly screwing people and believe they should face electoral consequences if they handle the maine thing poorly. And let's face it, when platner was the nominee, the amount of "center left" types I saw threatening to vote for Collins was awfully high, so if those guys start pulling that "vote blue no matter who" crap on you, you have zero reason to ever listen to them given how they were acting. Many of them would actively prefer collins over Platner. Again, it's the "uniparty". THe moderates on both sides are closer to each other than others on their side. A lot of moderates would rather collins win than to hand that seat over to a socialist of progressive. Rememeber that.
So, again, do what you will.
No comments:
Post a Comment