So...I keep seeing weird doomer rhetoric about the AI bubble, with people going on about how OMG YOU SHOULD BUY NOW IT'S ONLY GONNA GET WORSE, THE PRICES WILL NEVER COME BACK DOWN AND THEY'RE KILLING HARDWARE OWNERSHIP AND BLAH BLAH BLAH!
While I dont deny rich people be rich people and will continually find new ways to screw people, these people dooming like this need to chill. This is another weird hardware bubble, similar to the COVID and crypto booms. Prices are expensive because rich people are in their own little bubble about how great AI is, and how we need to buy up the entire productive capacity of PC hardware years in advance for AI datacenters no one wants, for AI that no one wants, and at some point, the bills are gonna come due. These companies are gonna have to turn a profit somehow, and they're selling a product that most people dont want. Dont get me wrong, there ARE customers, but it's a B2B thing, it's businesses selling to each other. But NORMAL people? They're not on board with AI. And to be fair i dont blame them. it's always been this artificial thing. I am normally pro tech and even I kinda hate AI. it's just a bunch of tech bros telling us that this is "it", and we gotta get "with it" or we're gonna be "left behind", and most people are like F off.
So...what happens when the bill for all of this current hardware for data centers no one wants for AI no one wants comes due? Well, if these companies cant turn a profit, they're screwed. They're gonna go out of business, the industry is gonna consolidate. I dont think that AI will go away entirely, but I think it will be a painful lesson for many wealthy people heavily investing in it, and suddenly there will be tons of hardware no one wants and more and prices are gonna POP.
Look at COVID. Look at the RX 6000 series I venerate so hard in recent years. 6650 XT. $400 MSRP. $800+ during COVID. Bought for $230 in 2022. Yeah. That's what's gonna happen here eventually. RX 9000 and RTX 5000 cards will go for 2x+ MSRP, and then....prices will crash and things will return to normal. When? 2028 or later. Not sure. 2026 and 2027 are gonna be bad. We're in that 2021 phase with high demand and prices that are ridiculous. But eventually, it'll crash. Might take a few years, but yeah. The industry is gonna have to crash eventually. What is happening now isnt sustainable. I dont think that this is a new normal or permanent. Ive seen variations of this happen in recent years. Crypto booms in 2017 and 2018, COVID in 2020-2022. And now this. 2025-2027ish? Again, idk when exactly it'll pop, but I'm guessing some time between 2028-2030.
I just wanted to push back against the doomers since some of them are getting overly dramatic. If this were truly a new normal that's one thing, but again what's driving this is rich people buying up the entire world's supply of computer parts years in advance for a product no one actually wants. This isn't sustainable and if I had to guess, it'll crash eventually. Maybe I'm wrong, but I see the writing on the wall. This is a bubble IMO.
And yes, I fully recognize that this bubble popping could lead to a massive market correction that will likely throw us into a new great recession style recession. And it will be painful to many. Again, think the housing bubble, again. But yeah, that's really the only thing keeping the US economy going right now. It's like 10 billionaires siphoning trillions in funds to each others companies in a giant circle until the whole thing collapses. It really is that ridiculous in my view. Again, how is this even remotely sustainable? It isn't.
Again, just pushing back on the doomers.
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