So, I've kind of discussed this before, but it's very salient now that the Blue Rumbling just happened. What is the future of the republican party? It's unknown and TLDR, it ultimately depends on how democrats govern over the next few years. No matter what path they take, their best path back to relevance is to let democrats implode from their own incompetence.
As far as 2028 and forward though, they have two directions. Up until the midterms, it seemed obvious Vance and Rubio were the two strongest candidates going into 2028. However, this crushing defeat is causing people to rethink that. People seem to be distancing themselves from the Trump administration like rats fleeing a sinking ship. Vance is seen as DOA. There's talk of Rubio resigning as secretary of state, possibly to position himself as the anti MAGA candidate who had the inside scoop. And yeah, it looks like there's a potential civil war brewing within the party.
As I see it, there's two directions that the GOP can go, and neither are great for them long term. The rational move, after seeing everything that's happened, would be to moderate. Some are calling for the GOP to get back to its roots in constitutionalism and the republican party of pre Trump. This is arguably the better future for the country, as moderating away from the far right fascist crap is probably for the best. However, I don't see this as a tenable move for them. Here's the reality for the GOP: the GOP is radical because the base as radical. As I said before when discussing republicans vs democrats, the republican politicians fear the voters, the voters fear the democratic politicians. by this I mean that on the left there's a slavish culture of voting blue no matter who, with democrats pushing for candidates that quite frankly make their stomachs turn in the name of "electability", while republicans let their freak flags fly and push for the most extreme and radical candidates who align with their values, regardless of electability. If the republicans push moderates on the party, it is unlikely that the party's voters will accept them. They might even buck the party and go full Nick Fuentes, who basically pushed his supporters to vote democrat because the republicans weren't extreme enough. The republicans have a long history of tarring and feathering RINOs, and the last time the GOP faced a loss this big in 2006 and 2008, the result was the tea party. The republicans are functionally allergic to moderation and won't turn for moderate candidates. Their base is driven by their extreme values, and if a candidate doesn't represent them, a significant number of them won't turn out. It also seems that with Trump throwing out Susie Wiles and replacing her with Stephen Miller, that Trump himself has learned nothing. If anything, the weak link in his administration is him, but instead of doing introspection he's firing people like a dictator punishing his generals for losing a war, and doubling down.
However, if the republicans double down, they're going to probably repeat this week. The public is totally soured on the republicans in their current state, and only about 1/3 of the country actually likes these guys. So this offers a conundrum. If the republicans moderate, they lose their base. If they go extreme, they lose everyone else. That's the nature of the republican coalition. The democrats have similar issues in their own right, where they cant thread the needle between what parts of their base want and the public wants as well, but not as bad as the GOP right now. The GOP agenda is fundamentally unpopular, but if they moderate, they enter that uncanny valley of suck and kinda lose everyone as well. With that said, if anything, I suspect that the GOP is going to learn nothing from their loss and become even MORE extreme.
This brings us to what I said earlier, the fate of the GOP is ultimately decided by democrats. When democrats take over, they have to govern. And if they cant govern well, the public is gonna turn ON THEM. And who will they run to? The republicans. And it doesnt matter if they moderate or go extreme, ultimately we will reach a tipping point where people will prefer the devil we dont know over the one we know. Just as the other night was a kneejerk reaction to trump, and not an endorsement of democrats and their agenda, the elections of 2030, 2032, and onward are going to be a reaction to how democrats govern. And if democrats cant stick the landing and all we get over the next four or so years is more hakeem jeffries and chuck schumer doing nothing, well....the republican will be able to come in and be the opposition. It doesnt matter if they're moderate OR extreme. Maybe the memory of Trump will be so scarred into the collective memories of the populace like Hoover and Carter that we WILL see a realignment where people will jsut flock to democrats no matter how poorly they govern, but normally a realignment like that requires not just a bad leader who F-s everything up, but also a good one, or at least a decent one, to set the tone for the next generation of politics. But if we dont get a good leader, we'll just get a turnover like a football team that ran out of downs. 2027, first down, 2028, second down, 2029, third down, 2030, fourth down, either make gains or get a turnover. Tick tock the clock is running as of the democrats getting sworn in, and especially after they retake the presidency in 2028. This is why I say that the fate of the republicans ultimately depends on what WE do, and we better do it right, or we're gonna lose our newfound power to the other side who will only continue to become more extreme with every loss. And this is why I'm go critical of Schumer and Jeffries for not meeting the moment so far. The populace wants bold action, not wishy washy centrism that accomplishes nothing. We dont need to deliver full on democratic socialism, we don't need to deliver full on UBI centric human centerd capitalism. But we need to deliver SOMETHING. At least do McMorrow/Talarico wing style policy here. If we dont, then we're gonna be dealing with Groypers taking over in 2030 and 2032. And that possibility should scare ALL of us.
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