Okay, 2 weeks until election day, this will either be my second or third from last update. I plan on doing one the day before election day and I may do another between now and then, I'll have to see. Anyway, let's look at what's going on. I hear Donald is losing badly.
Aggregate polling - 5.5% Clinton
Clinton seems to have gone down a bit in the two way polls.
Aggregate polling with third party candidates - 5.3% Clinton
Slightly lower in the four way too.
Electoral College
Added a few states. Unsurprisingly PA was added back to the list as it reverted to about 6% ahead for Clinton. Now the surprising one: Texas is in play. Yes, TEXAS, the biggest red state in the game. It's expected for Texas to become more liberal in the next few decades, but it's surprising to see it technically in play now, even if that does mean Trump will probably win it by 5 points.
Arizona - 1.3% Clinton
Colorado - 7.2% Clinton
Florida - 3.8% Clinton
Georgia - 4.0% Trump
Indiana - 5.0% Trump
Iowa - 3.7% Trump
Maine - 5.2% Clinton
Maine CD2 - 5.4% Trump
Minnesota - 4.3% Clinton
Missouri - 6.7% Trump
Nevada - 4.7% Clinton
New Hampshire - 8.0% Clinton
North Carolina - 2.1% Clinton
Ohio - 0.6% Trump
Pennsylvania - 6.2% Clinton
South Carolina - 7.6% Trump
Texas - 4.8% Trump
Utah - 5.5% Trump
Virginia - 8.0% Clinton
Wisconsin - 6.7% Clinton
Election Scenarios
Most likely scenario (best guess) - 333-205 Clinton
Last week's most likely scenario - 340-198 Clinton
Most likely scenario with no swing states (<=1% lead) - 333-187 Clinton
Clinton + 1 - 351-187 Clinton
Trump + 1 - 333-205 Clinton
Most likely scenario with no swing states (<=4% lead) - 278-165 Clinton
Clinton + 4 - 373-165 Clinton
Trump + 4 - 278-260 Clinton
Most likely scenario with no swing states <=8% lead) - 203-90 (no winner)
Clinton + 8 - 448-90 Clinton
Trump + 8 - 203-335 Trump
Current statistics
Current tipping point: Trump + 4.3% - 268-270 Trump
The state that tips it: Minnesota (+4.3% Clinton)
Standard deviations: 1.075
Current chance of Clinton winning: 85.9%
Current chance of Trump winning: 14.1%
Previous statistics
Previous tipping point: Trump + 3.6% - 268-270 Trump
The state that tipped it: New Hampshire (+3.6% Clinton)
Standard deviations: 0.9
Previous chance of Clinton winning: 81.5%
Previous chance of Trump winning: 18.5%
Discussion
At first glance, looking at the aggregate polls and the electoral college as it has changed, it would look like Clinton's lead is lessening, but when one looks at what's going on in the electoral college and looks at the chances of various states flipping, the presidency becomes further and further out of Trump's grasp. The tipping point is currently polling 4.3% in Clinton's favor rather than 3.6%, and this means that Clinton's chance of winning has increased by more than 4% from around 82% to around 86%. It doesn't look good for the Donald. On the other hand it looks very good for Clinton.
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