Might as well update my senate predictions too while I'm at it.
Close races
Florida - 3.4% R
Illinois - 7.0% D
Indiana - 4.3% D
Missouri - 1.0% R
Nevada - 2.3% D
New Hampshire - 2.0% D
North Carolina - 3.1% R
Pennsylvania - 1.8% R
Wisconsin - 5.3% D
How the senate make up will work
Most likely single outcome: 50-50 split
Tipping point for the Republicans: New Hampshire (D + 2.0) (0.5 SD)
Tipping point for the Democrats: Missouri (R + 1.0) (0.25 SD)
Chance of Republican control: 30.9%
Chance of Democratic control: 40.1%
Chance of a 50-50 split: 29.0%
Discussion
There's some shifting around. Pennsylvania is no longer the closest race, although is very close. New Hampshire flipped from republican to democrat so that deserves to have an eye kept on it. Missouri's race does too.
All in all, the most likely single outcome, looking at the probabilities of each race, is a 50-50 split. Now, keep in mind, that's a de facto win for democrats, assuming Clinton wins the presidency. However, chance of both republican and democratic control is very possible, assuming that the numbers shift in a uniform way. Since the default outcome is 50-50 and the numbers are so close, one race in one state could shift the entire balance. There's about a 40% chance on a probability curve of the democrats getting 51 or more seats, but there's also a 31% chance for the same to happen to the republicans. As such, while senate control slightly leans toward the democrats, it's still anyone's game and it could turn out either way. I plan on following this closely and at least doing one more senate analysis before the election.
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