So...take this with a load of salt, but apparently a report from an alleged FSB (Russian CIA equivalent) analyst appeared on the internet. And while we should take it with a grain of salt, it seems to have some credibility. Anyway, I wanted to engage with this material and discuss my thoughts here as they come up. This will be one of those "I quote text and then respond" type posts. I wont respond to everything, but I will engage with statements I find provocative or worth discussing.
The Pandora’s Box is open – a real global horror will begin by the summer – global famine is inevitable. Russia and Ukraine were the main suppliers of grain to the world. This year’s harvest will be smaller and logistical problems will result in a catastrophe. (MY COMMENTARY: I disagree that this will result in global famine.)
I lack the expertise to be able to comment either way, but I could imagine that if Russia and Ukraine are huge sources of grain this could negatively impact regions of the world dependent on them for grain. While I don't think the US will be particularly impacted as to my understanding we're largely self sufficient from a food perspective due to being on a different continent and are another breadbasket for the world, this could have more impacts on Europe, Africa, Asia, etc.
It could also have impacts here if our sources are competed over on the world market rather than going to Americans directly. I mean gas is doing that now, despite us only getting 3% of our oil from Russia.
Just goes to show war isn't good for economics.
it was concealed from everyone. For example – you are being asked to analyze various outcomes and consequences of a meteorite attack (MY COMMENTARY: Here he most likely means the West’s sanctions) – you research the mode of attack, and you are being told that it’s just a hypothetical and not to stress on the details, so you understand the report is only intended as a checkbox, and the conclusions of the analysis must be positive for Russia, otherwise you basically get interrogated for not doing good workThis is interesting. It seems like the FSB was kept in the dark and forced to analyze hypothetical scenarios that were not related to the attack. And as a result, they gave wildly inaccurate analyses as to what the end result would be. Would explain why their predictions were so crap.
----
We have no answer to the sanctions because of this.
No one knew there’d be such a war, so no one prepared for these sanctions.
It’s the flipside of the secrecy – since everyone was kept in the dark, how could we prepare for it?
Our Blitzkrieg has totally collapsed. It is impossible to complete the task: If Zelensky and his deputies were captured in the first 3 days, all key buildings also captured, and they were forced to read an address of their surrender to the country, then Ukraine’s resistance would have likely dissolved to a minimal level. Theoretically. But then what? Even in this IDEAL outcome, there remained an unsolvable problem: Who is the counterparty to our negotiations? If we remove Zelensky – fine – who is going to sign the agreement? If with Zelensky, then that agreement is worthless after we remove him.This seems to confirm a lot of what I've been suspecting. That Russia went in with the expectation that they could take the country in a few days with a shock and awe campaign, but they failed miserably. They couldn't remove Zelinsky with someone more palatable to the Russians, and they failed to take the country. So basically because they failed to do that, they completely screwed up.
To occupy? Where would we find that many people? Commandant’s office, military police, counter-intelligence, security – even at minimum resistance from the Ukrainians, we’d need over 500,000 people, not including supply & logistics. There’s a rule, if you try to cover for bad quality leadership with quantity, you’ll make everything worse. And I repeat this would be the problem in the IDEAL SCENARIO, which does not exist.
So the Russians were completely unprepared for the massive endeavor that conquering and occupying the country would require. And this was in the ideal scenario. They failed to achieve that scenario. So now this is going badly for them.
Our logistics are already over-extended today. We can send a much large contingent into Ukraine, and what would we get? Ukraine – a territorially enormous country, and their hate towards us is astronomical. Our roads simply cannot accommodate the resupply of such convoys, and everything will come to a halt. And we can’t pull it off from the management side because of the current chaos.So they didn't get that ideal scenario, and instead they're dealing with the worst case scenario of a protracted war with extreme resentment toward them. Not the 3 day excursion they expected. They not only botched the planning according to this guy, then they got hit with the worst case scenario.
It's funny. This is just a thought of mine, but if they only attacked the two regions they claimed they were trying to liberate, I don't think these problems would've occurred. And they'd be able to take them just like they did crimea. They spent years pushing russian separatist propaganda in the area to soften them up, so they could've just swooped in and took them. And they probably would have succeeded. And while the west wouldn't be happy, they wouldn't be getting the backlash they're getting now. But instead they invaded the whole country, which was biting off more than they can chew.
With regards to Russian military losses: I don’t know the reality – no one does. There was some information the first 2 days, but now no one knows what is happening in Ukraine. We’ve lost contact with major divisions (!!) They may re-establish contact, or may dissipate under an attack, and even the commanders don’t know how many are dead, injured, or captured. Total dead is definitely in the thousands, maybe 10,000, maybe 5,000, or maybe just 2,000. But even at our command no one knows. But probably closer to 10,000. And we are not counting losses at DNR & LNR.
This is in line with the Ukrainian's claims. They estimate 12k losses last I looked and while some are saying that's too high and propaganda, Russia is claiming only like 500. The reality is probably much closer to the Ukraine estimate than the Russia one.
Now even we kill Zelensky or take him prisoner, nothing will change. The level of hate toward us is similar to Chechnya. And now, even those loyal to us in Ukraine are publicly against us.
Yep, instead of making a smooth transition they kicked the beehive, leading to resistance to be far fiercer than expected.
Now, civilian losses in Ukraine will follow a geometric pattern progression, and resistance against us will only get stronger. Infantries already tried to enter cities – out of 20 paratrooper groups, only one had “provisional” success. Recall the invasion of Mosul – it’s a rule – happens with every country, nothing new.
To hold a siege? Over the last decades in Europe – Serbia being the best example, cities can remain functional under siege for years.
Humanitarian convoys from Europe to Ukraine is only a matter of time.
Things really aren't going Russia's way are they? Basically, it doesn't look good for them. Like, miscalculations everywhere, worst case scenario at all turns. Murphy's law style invasion.
Our conditional deadline is June. Conditional because in June there will be no economy left in Russia – there will be nothing left. By and large, next week there will be a collapse (in Russia) to either of the two sides, simply because the situation cannot remain under current conditions.And that's another aspect. They're running on borrowed time here. They can't maintain this over the long haul. The sanctions are wrecking their economy and by June they'll have no economy. So they gotta wrap this up fast or they're screwed. But given that they are facing fierce resistance, and are underprepared, scattered, and logistically can't support their own troops, they are screwed. They're running against the clock and time isn't on their side.
By and large, Russia does not have an out. There are no options for a possible victory, only of losses – this is it.
100% we’ve repeated our mistake from last century, when we decided to kick the “weak” Japan in order to achieve a quick victory, and it turned our army was in a state of total calamity. Then, we started a war till the victorious end, then we started conscripting the Bolsheviks for re-education in the army. Then these barely-known Bolsheviks picked up their anti-war slogans.
----
The enemy is motivated. Monstrously motivated. Knows how to fight, plenty of capable commanders. They have weapons and support. We will simply establish a precedent of human catastrophe in the world.
This seems to be the summary. They can't win. Not in the way that would require a win. I did see American reports saying they COULD take the country in 4-6 weeks if they act brutally and attack infrastructure (which they are doing) and siege cities, but they seem to have a chance to wrap it up, but honestly, this report seems much more bleak. They simply don't have the ability, or time, to mount an effective siege, and they're fighting an enemy that is extremely motivated to repel them. So it is looking bad for them.
Again, this guy could be some Ukrainian giving psy ops. Remember me covering those Russian hackers leaking DNC emails a few years ago and it turned out to be propaganda? Take this with a grain of salt. But still. It's not that far off from my summation of it. I'm not an analyst, but my political science background gives me the ability to understand what they're saying here. And their estimation is a bit more detailed than mine, but not that different. My own idea was that I give Russia 50/50 at this point at taking Ukraine itself. I mean, they have overwhelming military force, and this is supposed to be RUSSIA we're talking about. The third best military in the world. of course, I'm used to using the US as a standard, and Russia is far underperforming, but idk, I keep having a bias where I keep giving them the benefit of the doubt of "they'll find a way even if they sacrifice tens of thousands of troops". It seems clear to me that they have miscalculated. I believe the whole three days narrative and coming in with shock and awe. I believe they miscalculated. But I can't help but think, this can't be it, can it? This is RUSSIA we're talking about. But....everything this guy says seems to be right. How long can they hold out under the sanctions? How long can they sustain a military operation like this if their logistics are garbage? Can they win? Like, I didn't believe it would happen when it started, but it almost looks like the Ukrainians are...winning. They're actually BEATING Russia, the third best military in the world on paper. I honestly didn't expect them to lose this many troops, or tanks, or expect their troops to be this undisciplined or unmotivated. This is a complete nightmare and an embarrassment on the world stage for them. Great for Ukraine though. Well other than being invaded in the first place. But it seems to me they're going full on "Red Dawn" on them, and succeeding. It just amazes me. Im amazed at the fighting spirit and competency of the Ukrainian military. I'm baffled at how poorly Russia screwed this up. By all accounts, Ukraine shouldn't win, but it looks like they are.
It should be noted while this is the "conclusion", this isn't the end of the report this guy made. And I will discuss the rest of it as I see fit. Much of it seems to focus on Russia vs the world, rather than Russia vs Ukraine here.
Now we are stuck waiting until some mentally screwed up advisor convinces the top to start a conflict with Europe, with demands to reduce the sanctions – they either loosen the sanctions or war. What if the West refuses? In that instance I won’t exclude that we will be pulled into a real international conflict, just like Hitler in 1939. Our “Z” will be equated to the Swastika.
This guy is astute and discusses something I've been wondering about. While Russia attacking the west would be devastating and lead to WWIII, would it actually be good for Russia? And the answer is no. He's ALREADY perceived as the "Hitler" in this situation by the west. Everyone online is calling him "Putler". And that Z IS becoming a bit of a swastika. While Russians are turning it into a symbol of nationalist pride, it already is another coolish symbol being ruined by a bloodthirsty and imperialist military.
Is there a possibility of a localized nuclear strike? Yes. Not for any military objectives. Such a weapon won’t help with the breach of the defenses. But with a goal of scaring everyone else (The West).
Honestly, this would be suicide for Russia, and end up destroying the world potentially. But that seems to be Putin's game at this point. Resort to literal terrorism to bully the west. But again, most of the world, minus a few authoritarian countries, view Russia as the bad guy already. All this would do is seal the deal. Russia just isn't gonna win the PR game here. He lost. And any damage caused will just be blamed on him. It would be a disaster for the world, but at the end of the day everyone will blame Russia.
That's the thing. Russia is just percieved SO BADLY right now. They literally are Nazi Germany right now.
We are plowing to create a scenario in which to blame everything on Ukraine. Naryshkin (Director of Foreign Intelligence Service of Russia) and his SVR is digging the ground to prove that Ukraine was secretly building nuclear weapons. F*&K. They are hammering at what we’ve already analyzed and closed the book on: We can’t just make up any evidence or proof and existence of specialists and Uranium. Ukraine has a ton of depleted isotope 238 – this is nothing. The production cycle is such that you can’t do it in secret.
A dirty bomb can’t be created in secret. Ukraine’s old nuclear power plants can only produce the material as a by-product in minimal amounts. The Americans have such monitoring at these plants with MAGATE that even talking about this is stupid.
Yeah....this is never gonna work. Here's the thing. We went with the WMD excuse in Iraq. It didn't work. The truth came out. And Bush looked like a moron in the best possible light for it. At worst, he invaded under false pretenses for revenge or oil. And honestly? it makes no sense to do this.
Like, I've looked at Iran previously, since they're regularly accused of trying to make nukes, and here's the thing. In non nuclear countries with nuclear power plants, all that radioactive material is tracked closely to ensure people AREN'T making nukes with it. There are international agencies to oversee the entire process, and Russia can't just make up false accusations of Ukraine trying to make WMDs and have it stick. of course, they're shutting off access to non state approved sources and insisting everyone use state propaganda so maybe they can pull off a lie on misinformed citizens with no access to the outside world. but generally speaking, yeah, they can't do this. This can be debunked so easily by the international community it'll never stick.
Do you know what will start in a week? Let’s let it be even in 2 weeks. We are going to be so screwed we will start reminiscing about the good ol’ hungry days of the 90s. As the markets are being closed, Nabiullina appears to be taking the right steps, but it’s like plugging holes on a ship with your fingers. The situation will break through anyway and even stronger. Nothing will be solved in 3 or 5 or 7 days any longer.
I'm not sure it will happen that fast, but maybe. Depends how the supply lines work. And if Russia is dependent on stuff coming in and it doesnt because of sanctions, yeah, they might be in trouble. Still, I suspect it might take a couple weeks or months for that to really kick in. Economy being decimated by June sounds about right. But worse than the early 90s within 3-7 days seems a bit overly pessimistic. I mean, again, depends on supply lines, but I'd imagine Russia has some contingency plans in place. Even if it means going back to communism and everyone getting potatoes.
Our current position is like Germany in 1943-1944 – but that’s our STARTING position in Ukraine.
Eh, idk. This seems too pessimistic even for me. I mean they're the invaders. And they dont have to risk Ukraine going all USSR on them, just pushing them out of Ukraine. But still, I get it. I know things were going badly for the Germans on the eastern front by then. While they were strong in 1941 and 1942, 1942 was the turning point and by 1943-1944 they were being pushed back. So maybe that it accurate.
With regards to prisons – it will be worse. The nuts will start to get tightened till blood. Everywhere. To be frank, purely technically, this is the only way to maintain any control of the situation. We are already in total mobilization mode. But we can’t remain in this mode for long, but our timetables are unknown, and it will only get worse. Governance always goes astray from mobilization. And just imagine: You can sprint 100m – but try that in a marathon.
And so, with the Ukrainian question we lunged as if going for a 100m sprint, but turned out we’d signed up for a marathon
I dont know where he's going with some of this, but I buy the whole "they expected a sprint and got a marathon" analogy.
To offer further cynicism, I don’t believe that Putin will press the red button to destroy the entire world.
Good at least he aint that insane.
First, it’s not one person that decides, and someone will refuse. There are lots of people there and there is no single “red” button.
Second, there are certain doubts that it actually functions properly. Experience shows that the more transparent the control procedures, the easier it is to identify problems. And where it’s mirky as to who controls what and how, but always reports full of bravado, is where there are always problems.
I am not sure that the “red button” system functions according to the declared data. Besides, plutonium fuel must be changed every 10 years.
Third, and this is the most disgusting and sad, I personally do not believe in Putin’s will to sacrifice himself when he does not even allow his closest ministers and advisors to be in his vicinity. Whether it’s due to his fear of COVID or a possible assassination is irrelevant. If you are scared for the most trusted people to be near you, then how could you possibly choose to destroy yourself and those dearest to you.
I kind of believe this. I know there have been nuclear close calls where people refused to fire and saved the world in the process. So that's a good thing. And I'm sure many people would revolt against him because he would've clearly lost it.
Second, yeah I can understand systems breaking down like everything else Russian at this point. And honestly, given the state of the Russian military, I've kind of had to wonder if their missiles would explode on the launch pad if they tried firing them. Nothing else they're doing seems to work.
But yeah, apparently nukes only last 10 years before they need new plutonium, and Russia's nukes are what, 30 years old? Yeah, maybe they would just fizzle out if launched. I still wouldnt take that chance, but again, it seems in line with the rest of the Russian military. Still hyped up on cold war nostalgia, using military equipment that's decades old and hasn't been maintained, and breaks down the second they start using it.
And yeah, maybe Putin wouldn't sacrifice himself. I can't imagine him suiciding in a bunker like Hitler either. Not unless NATO is shelling Moscow the way Russia did to Berlin.
So...honestly, maybe it won't come to nukes.. My own assessment is that Putin would have literally lost it if he did go that route. But yeah, it's very possible even if he was insane and suffering from some sort of mental illness, that it wouldnt work due to the above reasons. Either way I hope it doesn't come to that.
The overall aim of this assessment seems somewhat close to my own. Putin expected this to be easy, but he planned poorly, bit off more than he can chew, and things just ended up not going his way. So now he's faced with an occupation he might not be able to handle, and fighting against the clock as Ukraine drains him on the battlefield and NATO sanctions bleed him dry economically. Russia really did dig themselves into a hole here.
The real question is whether Russia backs down, and comes out of it, despite the crushing blow it would deal to its pride, or if it doubles down and becomes North Korea. Because as I see it that's what's gonna happen. Either Russia is gonna have to make a decision and back down, and thus mitigate further damage but at the cost its its national pride. or it's gonna destroy itself due to stubbornness and not knowing when to quit. Even if they take Ukraine, and based on this Im not 100% sure they can at this point, they still face severe sanctions and a prolonged occupation that simply won't go their way. I am of the opinion that this is a no win situation long term for Russia. My only disagreements with this guy are in whether Russia can salvage this short term. Im not sure myself. I mean, again, I'm 50/50 on this. It's possible Russia resolves its supply issues and takes Ukraine over the next month or two. It will still face a long and bloody occupation as well as sanctions, but maybe they can work with China for example to help their economy. Maybe these sanctions will push them away from the west and toward newer friendlier markets in India and China? Been something I've been thinking of.
That said, I'm not fully convinced by this. It's too pessimistic even for me. But, I do believe this is a valid analysis as it seems to confirm much of what I've been expecting. And maybe, being an analyst, he simply knows more about their situation than, say, I would. And it's possible that maybe I'm just giving Russia too much of the benefit of the doubt because I was raised when the cold war was still fresh in everyone's minds and Russia was considered to be America's equal for so long. But it seems like we grossly overestimated Russia's capabilities, and maybe I'm STILL biased toward overestimation. I don't know. We shall see. Either way, I can agree that this whole operation is a nightmare for the Kremlin.
No comments:
Post a Comment