So....can Ukraine win?

 So...let's be honest. This war hasnt gone well for Russia. Their logistics are complete and utter dogcrap and they've apparently lost 9k+ troops at this point, with many vehicles being either destroyed or just running out of gas and being commandeered by Ukrainian farmers. 

The once feared "Soviet Union" that still existed in media long after it broke up seems to be no more. They've shown themselves to be a paper tiger and seem to be flopping hard on this invasion. They still havent taken Kyiv, and while they seem to be advancing overall, it seems to be at a snails pace, with them losing ground they fought hard to take. 

I'm having trouble finding it, but I believe the pentagon put out a report saying Russia COULD take Ukraine in 4-6 weeks if they ramp up the war crimes to a 10 and just start sieging cities and destroying infrastructure, but then as we know from iraq and Afghanistan a new phase of the war would start and then they would be in for a long occupation. And then they would still face resistance, and insurgencies, and they would basically try to get it under control for 10-20 years only to leave. 

So....in the long term, a Ukraine "win" seems inevitable, but only after losing and at what cost?

In the short term, it's still possible for Ukraine to "win". Russia seems to have terrible logistical and morale issues and if Ukraine keeps targetting the weak supply lines Russia is trying to form, it can potentially stop Russia in its tracks. The trick of Russian logistics is that it's primarily defensive and based on Russia's extensive rail network to transport stuff around, and that once you get more than 90 miles from their rail network, everything falls apart. 

So, I dont know. Military analysts still give the edge to Russia, but I'm cautiously optimistic that they can pull off a win. Russia seems to act primarily on intimidation tactics and displays of overwhelming force, while suffering poor logistical support, and that lack of support could cost them this war. Your military cant do crap if it runs out of gas and your soldiers have no food. And Russia, despite its overwhelming on paper force, cant seem to utilize its army effectively, which is grossly undermining progress in their campaign.

To which I say, good. Let Russia suffer. They invaded an innocent country and are screwing up everyone' life right now over an unjust conquest of territory. I hope they fail. Slava Ukraini.