So, there's a lot of debate on the internet in the last few days about whether Williamson is a serious candidate or not, or deserves to be taken seriously. I know Kyle Kulinski looked at how the mainstream media took her, and as you would expect, they kinda just...dismissed her as not serious. of course, anyone who is astute should know that of course the corporate media would do that. They did it to bernie, they did it to yang, and it kind of creates a self fulfilling prophecy that she's not serious because no one takes her seriously, and then she loses. I mean I would argue if Bernie or Yang was given the support the media gives to so called "serious" candidates, that they would be far more able to get the job done. But because the media sabotages them, they shut them down before they can get off the ground.
Marianne herself seems to take herself seriously. She goes, of course those clowns would say that, but I'm serious about making sure this country doesnt fall to fascism, we need a new FDR, blah blah blah. Ya know, the same talking points that I've been pushing since 2016. Whether it's true or not at this point is another thing. The fact is, the media did kind of control the narrative for so long that america is far more polarized than it was in 2016, and many conservatives are in trumpworld and unwilling to listen to lefties any more. While I could make the case for a lot of normie trump voters in 2016 supporting bernie, by now they've been listening to the QAnon crap for so long im not sure they can be reasoned with. And of course the democratic party is fractured. A lot of people are just stuck in bidenworld. They lost in 2016 and 2020, the energy isnt there any more, and even I'm kinda like backing off somewhat. I kinda recognize the moment has been lost, and I'm not really sure a progressive like Williamson could win it this time. I mean, in 2016, yes, the polls showed that Bernie had a clear advantage over Hillary. You can see how for a lot of the time times, Bernie's polling data clearly exceeded Hillary's. And if that trend held through the general, Bernie would have easily won. Sanders vs Biden in 2020? I dont know, the polling data looks...about the same roughly. And let's face is, Bernie wouldn't have won AZ or GA at all, as they're very conservative and only swung left because of the suburbanite and POC crowds that the hard left struggles with. And 2020 was CLOSE. Very close. The thing is that election was more about getting rid of trump than it was about the democrats. And in 2024, the democrats are a damaged brand and all they have is "not republicans". They dont even have room to think about policies, and i think a lot of people just dont care at this point. There's a cynicism and a malaise on our politics where we know everything is broken, but no one seems to wanna do anything about it. So despite a lack of a national appetite for a trump/biden rematch, I think that's the most likely outcome. And despite the lack of national appetite, as I've said previously, I think the left is effectively stuck with Biden. Like we dug ourselves into this hole, (well, to be fair, I warned you guys all along), and now we're stuck with the guy where swapping him out could lead to the dems just imploding. I'm not sure the national appetite for Williamson is there. I'm really not.
As far as what I think of Williamson...eh...I mean her rhetoric seems to imply she's serious, but I'm going to be blunt...I kinda dont think she is. I mean, she has to know what we're up against. And I would need to see polls on her before I can conclude, like Bernie 2016, that Williamson "would have won." Normally, replacing an incumbent president in a primary is a disaster. Thats why i fought so hard against Hillary and Biden in the first place. I knew if we were stuck with them, we were really stuck with them where we wouldn't have another serious shot until 2028 or 2032 when the national environment is much different. And honestly, the GOP has made a come back since the early 2010s when they were on the verge of collapse. There's a lot of populist conservative energy that just isnt there on the left, and yeah, I'm just not sure she can win. I think she's mostly there just to change the national conversation. Someone has to do it after all. Bernie did it in 2016 and 2020. Yang and Williamson helped in 2020, and Williamson is now going for it in 2024.
We don't have a lot of polling data on Williamson in the primaries yet, but the first poll out today shows 4%. I'm going to be honest, this is somewhat promising. bernie started out at 1% in 2014. I was one of those 1%ers. And then it grew from there. I do think there's an appetite within the party for an insurgent candidate, but i dont expect them to go anywhere. Most normie dems will just vote Biden. it's too risky to support anyone else, and of course, blah blah blah, biden the most progressive ever, MSNBC told me so, blah blah blah. The real question is what her ceiling is. bernie's ceiling in 2016 was a respectable 45%. He came within spitting distance, but the democratic machine beat him back just barely and Hillary got the win. In 2020, things were more grim. Again, because the national conversation moved on a bit. His ceiling was about 30-35% and once Biden got the go ahead from the centrist camp and everyone else dropped, boom, he was gone. I don't know what Williamson's ceiling is. But it's almost certainly less than 50%. A lot of people suspected she wouldn't gain more than 5%. But given this poll, I think 5% is easy. I'd say on the low end, she'll net 8-10%, and maybe she'll get up to 30-40% if she REALLY takes off. If I had to guess right now, I'd say 15-20%. She'll win over the die hard progressives, while most of the party ignores her in favor of Biden. That's how I see it.
As for whether I'll support her, I mean, she's the best we have. Bernie is too old. Yang is doing...whatever Yang is doing. Speaking of Yang, he interviewed her today. UBI wasnt mentioned, but she did push herself as being serious about running, and she even promised Yang a position in her administration. Hope she doesn't get nailed for corruption for that one. I think that might be illegal. But, I could get hyped over say, secretary of labor Andrew Yang. She mentioned having him on board to solve the automation crisis with jobs, and uh...yeah. Implicit endorsement of UBI there? Who knows. I mean, Im the UBI guy, I can hope, but I could be reading too much into it given nothing in her platform seems to imply being pro UBI this time around.
But yeah. As I said, I'm not SUPER enthusiastic about her, in part due to NOT explicitly supporting UBI, I personally dont think she has a shot. But...she's the best we got. She's a solid progressive. Her platform is pretty based despite not being pro UBI. And uh, yeah, if this were 2016 or 2020 I'd support her in a heartbeat. Even in 2024, I'd still support her, I just kinda did a lot of philosophical spring cleaning and am a bit less impressed and enthusiastic about non UBI supporting progressives. So that's a big change on my end. But still, i understand it really can't be all about me, and until a better candidate comes along, Williamson gets my nod.
That said, to anyone who says i dont ever compromise and I'm too rigid, since I get that a lot from mainstream dems...of course I compromise. I compromise all of the time. If I purity tested everyone to conform with me 100%, no one would agree with me, ever. And right now, Williamson is the best we got to push the needle my way. So Williamson 2024 it is, I guess. And if (well, when..) she loses, I'll probably go back to supporting Biden, just to stave off a fascist takeover of the US. Ugh. As I said, not enthusiastic about this election cycle. I feel like we're screwed.
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