Eh, so I was bored in terms of not having anything i wanted to watch while i gamed, so i decided to throw on 2016 election night coverage just to see what the vibe was. And man, it just feels like a whole different world. It's 10 years ago, we were so naive back then, and yeah, the establish was blindsided by it.
As we know, with my own posting in 2016, the media grossly overestimated Clinton's odds. This is basically what I went into 2016 election night with:
Yeah, it was pretty close. I mean, the people who acted like this was a stomp for Clinton were just wrong. I could tell that something was off here, and while I still believed Clinton would win, as I didnt believe the blue wall would fall, I understood that it actually was pretty easy for Trump to actually win. Even without the blue wall, if he just won all of the tossups, he would win 270-268. I really did think that it came down more to New Hampshire, than PA/WI/MI.
Anyway, this is the video I watched.
Hours 1-2
The video takes place over 7 hours, from 7 PM to 2 AM, but for me, its 5 hours due to no commercials. The first 2 hours of the video, so roughly...7 PM-9:45ish, were pretty normal. The discussion was rather academic. They talked about all the factors that went into the race, all the narratives, and it came off as rather objective. I know I tended to castigate the media for being biased, but here it really did feel like they did a good job. Like, someone watching this in a history in the future would get a good run down of what was going on here. One thing I'd like to point out is people didn't seem to like either candidate. They were mostly voting against what they didn't want, not what they wanted. It was a lesser evils election.
And yeah, it seemed like pretty early, Clinton was doing well. There was a bit of a blue mirage here. Ya know, the kind of thing that now causes the Trumpers to think elections are rigging, one candidate is winning and then they're not. And as we know, thats BS, sometimes early votes dont tell you the full story.
Hour 3
Hour 3 (say, between 9:45ish to 11:15ish) in the video is where the narrative started shifting. Trump started overperforming, and the race became more competitive. There were discussions of why Trump was overperforming, and I think that, again, it was pretty objective. We had the whole narrative of people left behind, believing the economy wasnt working for them, and Clinton not connecting. We had the idea that people thought that Trump offered them hope when CLinton didnt. There were discussions earlier in the night that I feel were relevant here. There was this idea of the coalition of the ascendant, and how the republican coalition was aging and becoming less white, and honestly, I dont think they really understood the racial and cultural anxiety in republicans' minds. I guess one commentator said something like after progress (first black president), you always get a reaction, but yeah, I dont think that we really understood the magnitude of the issue here.
Now, I dont think the reactionary elements REALLY put him over the top. It motivated the republican base, but again, I think what it really came down to were economically disenfranchised voters. People were pissed off, didnt think we really recovered from the great recession, and voted for trump.
Hour 4
Hour 4 is where the energy really shifted for Trump. For most of the race, it was clinton's to win. Trump had to run the table to win and systemically overperform. But as he did start systemically overperform, Clinton's path closed, and Trump's opened. And it really started getting to the point where Trump was favored. And again, these people were blindsided. I dont think they expected this. And they clearly didnt understand the pandora's box that opened. They discussed the implications and no one knew what they were getting with trump. I mean, they didnt know if he could accomplish his goals, what it means, there were comparisons to Brexit. And yeah.
Hour 5
The final hour didn't have the race called, but it seemed clear by this point Trump was probably gonna win. Clinton's headquarters were quiet. There were discussions about how she rented a venue under a glass ceiling (because OF COURSE she would! Remember, she was the one who mainstreamed "woke 1"). There was a lot of discussion how they could get it so wrong, what it meant, and yeah. Kinda like hour 4, but more blunt.
FInal analysis
Revisiting this was surreal. i know at the time, I had my opinions, theyre well documented here, and the surprising result is why my post election breakdowns are called "wtf just happened?!" Because....that's the reaction we have.
That night, I wasn't really sad Clinton lost. I mean, I had schadenfreude. I was angry too. And btw, they did discuss young men voting for Trump. I didnt, I voted Stein, but I get it. There WAS anger at the democratic establishment, and this WAS a brick through the window. And I was kinda more happy clinton lost than upset trump won. I was kinda disaffected either way. I felt not represented, and screwed, and it seemed like clinton's campaign was more about forcing herself down our throats than her being a good candidate.
There were lessons for democrats to learn here. I dont think they ever really did learn them. They seem like they're paid not to and to keep trying the same thing again, and as we know, the "definition of insanity is trying the same thing again and expecting different results, that. is. crazy." And sadly, they've had to learn this over and over again.
But at the same time, looking back now, I feel more somber. Im not sure what the timeline would be if clinton won, but at the time I didnt think it would be good. I guessed clinton would go on to govern like joe biden eventually did, lose, and then the republicans would have a mandate and we'd be screwed until 2028. And here we are....anyway. Still dealing with trump, him being worse than the worst case scenario i could think of at the time, and me being genuinely scared for the future of the country. Right before coming here, I responded to a thread about how young people are becoming "Austrian painter enthusiasts" (read; neo-nazis) and it scares me. I said it from the get go. We need an FDR and a new New Deal. We didn't get one. Instead we got Hitler. THe thing I find most dismaying is that there actually are people who LIKE this guy. Who look at how he governs and are like "yeah this is what he wants." I didnt think that wouldve happened in 2016. I knew this country had its share of conservatives who would dogmatically and reflexively back him up no matter what he did, but the way he's governed, if you had me guess what his approval rating would be, I would imagine it would be around 20%. I didnt think we'd still have around 40% of people LIKE the guy a decade later. I didnt think he'd be able to win again in 2024, or almost win in 2020. I thought that he would get in, serve 4 years, the country would turn on him, and boom, he'd be out and by then the democrats would learn from 2016 and we'd get bernie sanders or something.
When I look at my biggest miscalculation about any of this, it's the idea that people would learn. I overestimated how intelligent the american populace is, and here we are with the centrist dems still being insufferable and the republicans actually LIKING this guy as he causes us to descend into fascism.
At least demsocs are winning primaries now. That is heartening. But 2028 looks like its gonna be harris or newsom, and honestly, both are about as blah as clinton was in 2016. And I fear if they win, we're just setting ourselves up for MORE failures. 2016 WAS a realignment. Trump was a realigning figure. 2016 election night feels like the end of an era. And what we've gotten in its place hasnt been good. It feels like a combination of the second party system between the Jacksonian democrats and the whigs and 1933 era germany. Just...dreadful.
Anyway, that's my analysis. I might do other elections too if I feel like it.
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