Discussing polling error and all of the ways the senate elections can go

 So....as we know, the democrats have an advantage in the senate, but it's not guaranteed. The election can go any which way that the polling error (and polling itself in the next 2 weeks) takes it. We might win, we might lose, we will probably win, but we don't really know. As such, I'm going to show all of the scenarios that my model more or less can fall within, some of them being more outlandish than others, but all being at least POSSIBLE. 

The model as is (50th percentile outcome, R/D+0)

 

So this is a little different than the model I posted on Friday, but mostly because RCP changed their averages by presumably dropping older polls, not so much because we got new ones. This is the median prediction. The one my model actually predicts. In it, the democrats win 53-46, with Nebraska being too close to call. It's a very good night for democrats, and would be a decisive win that sends a strong message of disapproval of the current administration to Washington. If you asked me if such a map was possible 1.5-2 years ago, I'd say such a scenario was extreme and outlandish, but here we are...

Slight Democratic overperformance (60th percentile, D+1)

 

In this scenario, all tossups go to the democrats, which means they win Nebraska (well, Osborn does, but it's expected he would caucus with the dems similar to Bernie Sanders and Angus King). Kansas also flips. The senate goes 55-45. This is basically a nightmare scenario for republicans, but we're not even close to seeing how nuts it can get for them. It's also not outlandish. It's just....democrats slightly overperform.

Moderate democratic overperformance (73rd percentile, D+2.5)

In this scenario, Annie Andrews wins South Carolina. The senate is 56-44. And...it can happen. This would be a very good night for democrats, and equivalent to a moderate systemic overperformance. This is basically "sweeping the board". The next one isn't any better than this, just the same thing but with higher margins.

Large democratic overperformance (84th percentile, D+4)

 

Here, we don't really see any chances from D+2.5. We're still talking 56-44, but South Carolina is more decisive, and margins start tightening in Florida and Arkansas. Also, at this stage, we shouldnt rule out Montana either. yes, it's R+14, but it's a 3 way race and it can be volatile. There's talk online about what if the Bankhead vote dumps her last minute and they all line up behind Bodnar. Well, I think WINNING Montana is iffy either way for the left in a 3 way race, I mean, even an Alme vs Bodnar 2 way match up was a tossup, but at D+4, we can start clearing that kind of hurdle more that a relatively insignificant Bankhead vote might pose. Of course, this is purely speculative. As things stand it IS R+14 there BECAUSE it's a three way race, and this implies some voter organization or collective rationality from them that I don't expect them to possess. Still, think Wisconsin in the primaries with the base rallying behind Crowley unexpectedly. It can happen. But yeah, I'd say this is largely similar to the previous scenario.

Extreme democratic overperformance (98th percentile, D+8)

This is the most extreme "everything favors democrats" scenarios. Polls are massively off, democrats overperform on an extreme level. We've seen individual races do this in the past, like the rust belt in 2016 and 2020 kinda did stuff like this, but the whole country? At this point, it's 58-42, with us getting Blorida and Blarkansas. We might even get Blontana for the reasons mentioned above at this point, given the aforementioned volatility 3 way races can have. I wouldnt bet on this happening. If anything, this is just a pipedream, but it is still statistically possible. 

Now...the republican favored scenarios...

Mild republican overperformance (60th percentile, R+1)

Here, the republicans keep Kansas and Nebraska, and also rebuff democratic efforts to flip Iowa. Still, it's a good night for democrats and a bad night for republicans. 6 races are in the "lean democratic" range, with them controlling the seats in 4 of them. This means they still flip North Carolina (which is safe Dem), Ohio, Texas, Alaska, and Maine, while keeping all existing seats. The senate would only be 52-48 in this scenario for them, but that's STILL a comfortable win for democrats and a loss for republicans. Let me put it this way, if we still walk away with this map on election day, I'll still be happy. 

Moderate republican overperformance (73rd percentile, R+2.5)

 

This is a bit of a nightmare scenario, similar to most election nights with Trump on the ballot. We go into the election overconfident and like the numbers are on our side and BOOM, they're off. Republicans overperform, democratic support is overestimated, and republican support is underestimated. In this scenario, we don't have a clear idea who won on election night. The way the scenario goes to the letter, Maine goes to collins, Texas goes to Paxton, Alaska is too close to call with us not really knowing who wins for days or weeks to come. Michigan is a nail biter all night but is eventually called for El Sayed. Minnesota, same thing but Flanagan pulls it off. Ohio flips and Brown wins a seat back. All in all, the Senate ends up going 50-50 or 49-51 depending on Alaska. And keep in mind, because this is just an approximation, any deviation from this can go in republican or democratic favor. If it's R+2.8, we lose Alaska and Michigan and Minnesota is even closer. That's 48-52 republicans with us only walking away with that safe North Carolina flip and Ohio. On the other hand, R+2.2 gives us Texas as a tossup, possibly going to the republicans, but us saving Alaska. R+2 can give us Texas, but we still lose Maine. R+3 loses us Minnesota. I could make like tons of different maps showing various scenarios of how THIS might go. 

Since this is the kind of scenario where true randomness might decide the election, I whipped out the scenario and ran 100 simulations with this map. It gave me 30 democratic wins, 52 republican wins, and 18 ties. So this is a republican control favored scenarios, but even if we get something that looks like this on election night, don't give up all hope, there is a roughly 1 in 3 chance that democrats still walk away with it if it looks like it's going this way. Sure, it'll be a very stressful nailbiter and much like 2000 or 2020, we might not truly know the outcome of the night for days, if not weeks, and this will enable Trump to push his big lie crap and claim it's rigged, but assuming the process is allowed to play out, the results are the results. I fear Trump using this kind of night as a pretext to just try to do something crazy like seize the ballots though. So this is a scary scenario, and also a very possible one.

Large republican overperformance (84th percentile, R+4)

This is more of a republican blowout performance. They win all the lean D seats comfortably, causing us to flip North Carolina, but lose Michigan. This is the kind of scenario I expected going into this election cycle. And it can still happen. It's not out of the realm of possibility. This is the scenario where we walk away defeated and wondering what else we expected, because of course the current map was too good to be true. We might also wonder wtf is wrong with this country where so many people are okay with Trumpism despite how horrible it is. I don't see this as the most likely outcome, but it's within the realm of possibility. This is a decisive republican win. 46-54,with us trading Michigan and Minnesota for North Carolina. And ugh, don't remind me, but centrists will use this opportunity to claim that if Haley Stevens were the nominee this scenario wouldn't have happened, despite it very obviously being a wave scenario for republicans in general. 

So yeah, bad night for us.

Extreme republican overperformance (98th percentile, R+8)

While it can theoretically happen (2% chance), at this point my BS meter goes off, and I kinda gotta wonder in this scenario if Trump or Musk did something to unduly influence things. Really, I can't imagine this one happening. But statistically, it technically can. In this scenario, democrats actually LOSE ground, Georgia and North Carolina still stay democratic here, but we lose New Hampshire and lose by very decisive margins everywhere else. This is basically a red wave scenario and the best possible outcome for republicans to have here. Democrats walk away from this completely demoralized and wondering wtf is wrong with our country. 

Many outcomes, many futures

All of these scenarios are models of what could be, if different things happen. As we can tell with R+2.5, the scenario itself isn't even decisive. You can see tons of mini scenarios within the scenario. R+2.5 is an approximation, and R+2 to R+3 could have like 5 different scenarios between them given how tightly packed a lot of states are. Of course, that's where the tipping point for the whole senate is, hence where the most minor deviations have the most extreme outcomes. The rest of the spectrum is relatively tame. You might get some flips here and there, but yeah, the real action happens around that R+2.5 scenario.

The most likely outcome (in my opinion)

 I'm actually going to create YET ANOTHER scenario for this one, between R+1 and R+2.5. 

 

I think democrats win the senate, but it's a much narrower map than expected. I think that we flip Ohio, Texas, and Alaska, but we lose Maine and Iowa, not to mention anything redder than those two. That's the closest outcome to what I think we'll end up with. I think the current map is too D optimistic, and we're setting ourselves up for a rough night if republicans overperform again. Still, I do think the democrats will win. I'd expect it to play out like 2024. Where democrats systemically underperform, it's a rough night, we end up with something like that R+2.5 scenario, but when all votes are counted, it's closer to R+1.7-1.8. Heck, that's what happened in 2024. It looked like R+2.5 or R+4 at the time, but after all the mail ins were counted we ended up with R+1.7. So yeah. That's my guess for how election night will go. And yeah, currently, such a margin also gets the exact outcome that I expect to happen.

I do think that Iowa is more of a long shot than polling suggests. i think that Maine is too. I think Susan Collins is a systematic overperformer, that voters are primarily voting democrat to punish Trump, and Collins is able to distance herself from Trump and have a moderate appeal virtually no other republican in the country currently has. I think that Troy Jackson has the charisma of a wet blanket, and won't be able to seal the deal. 

Still, I do think that Paxton is a horrible candidate in Texas and Talarico will edge it out. I think that Peltola can win in Alaska, she's done so in house races before which are statewide. I think Brown can pull off Ohio. He's done it before. El Sayed can win in Michigan. I think he's got that Obama type appeal while Mike Rogers has nothing but unhinged Islamophobia. I think Minnesota will actually be WAY more D leaning than 2.9 points. I mean, Im basically spoiling my personal prediction for 2026 (you know, the one where I take my model and then guess where the polling error will go and where on the spectrum we'll end up), but this is basically where I'm thinking right now. I think we'll still pull off a 51-49 win, but yeah. I think the current map and polling is too good to be true where it raises eyebrows for me like "is this for real?" I hope to be pleasantly surprised, but I'm going to go the other way, if only to manage expectations.I expect this to be a much rougher battle than it looks for us and we shouldnt be overconfident. We should treat this race like it's R+2.5 and VOTE LIKE EVERY VOTE MATTERS. Seriously, if youre not registered, do it ASAP, the deadline I think is like tomorrow here in PA at least. Make a plan. 

And yeah. That's a much more in depth senate forecast, but I wanted to do it. 

And since we're here, let me do the house too. I won't do a map, but I'll post the totals for the same overall margins according to my current model.

The House

No error (current forecast): 234-201D

D optimistic scenarios 

D+1: 235-200D

D+2.5: 240-195D

D+4: 242-193D

D+8: 253-180D (2 races too close to call)

R optimistic scenarios 

R+1: 233-202D

R+2.5: 230-205D

R+4: 229-206D

R+8: 220-215D

As you can tell, for me, it's not a matter of whether the democrats WIN the senate, it's by how much. A R+8 scenario (98th percentile for republicans) nets us a 220-215 house, a narrow win similar to what republicans got in 2024 when they won. On the flip side, we could see as high as 255-180D if democrats overperform by 8. All in all, I'd expect the race to settle around 230-235 Dem seats though. Keep in mind, I do think a slight republican overperformance is possible, so I expect it to stay in that range. 

Of course, this is the model where I take 2024 polling data and shift things uniformly. This model may or may not pan out in practice. Keep in mind all house models Im messing with this cycle are highly experimental and are intended to compensate for a lack of polling data. my math and assumptions could flat out be wrong. A more cook PVI based model could have far more extreme fluctuations. Keep in mind while that model gives me 234-201D too, it has A LOT more deviation, with a D+8 scenario netting us 289-146D, while a R+8 one nets us 210-225R. The flipping point is around R+4, which would get us 217-218R, although this model lacks granularity, meaning there could be a lot of deviation from these estimates. I dont really trust this model as much, but it offers another possibility.

Either way, I'm fine with being a bit more conservative than my model and estimating 230-205D for democrats. That seems to be where most other forecasts fall too.  

Conclusion

So yeah. Once again, no matter how good the numbers look, keep in mind, they could be off, and we shouldnt be surprised if things are more narrow than expected. if anything, I personally EXPECT things to be a bit more narrow than expected. I still think democrats will have a good night, but I do think that current polling and outcomes are a bit TOO optimistic. Either way, these are all the possibilities. Democrats could crush by margins that seem ridiculous. Republicans might be able to rebuff all of our efforts and hold onto almost everything. The results will likely be somewhere between those two extremes. Again, I'm guessing somewhere in the ballpark of a R+1.75 scenario between the R+1 and R+2.5 ones. And yeah. These 9 or 10 or so scenarios are basically the range of possible outcomes my model can predict. On the one hand, democrats sweep, on the other, republicans sweep, and in reality, I expect a messy fight somewhere in the middle where democrats are still victorious but we dont do as good as the median prediction suggests. Anything can happen. Just giving you guys the idea of the possible range of outcomes.