Election Update 10/30/26

 So, we're almost here. Next Tuesday is election day, and my next update, or the one after it, is likely the final one for the season. It's taken a while to get here, but we're almost finally here. 

Senate

This senate map. This fricking senate map. It's just about perfect. Look at how blue it is. If you showed me this back in early 2025 I would've thought this was some serious copium. But here we are. How is it compared to last week? Eh, not ALL that different, there are some key updates worth discussing. Michigan and Minnesota are looking closer to where I thought they should be all along. Minnesota is D+5, which is still close for Minnesota, but not insanely close. Michigan is up above D+3, that's good. KANSAS, FRICKING KANSAS is seeing insane shifts as the race comes to a close. It really does look like people are pissed at Trump and the energy is going toward the democrats. At the same time, Alaska, Maine, and Texas are a bit more middling. And this is where things get funky. If the democrats perform on par, or better than expected, they're gonna win the senate. But as we know, there's that 1 in 3 chance roughly that the republicans just overperform and hold onto the senate. You get a R+1.5-3 result and things are going to get funky. And we libs will melt down and have a "bad" night while the MAGAts laugh at us. Will it happen? Well, it can. Imagine, if you will, you turn on the weather and see in the forecast a 30% chance of isolated storms. Odds are it won't rain. You'll have a nice day. But then you might have one of those weird specks on the radar pop up and suddenly its storming for an hour. Expect sunshine, but bring an umbrella because we could get wet.

If I really had to guess though, the energy is on the side of the democrats. I think this will be closer to 2018 or 2022 than 2016, 2020, or 2024 energy wise. It's a blue wave year, and as people are making up their minds, they seem angry at republicans, REALLY angry. But, then I also hear anecdotes in texas about how "James Talafreako" wants to trans their kids. And some voters are eating that crap up. If the public were rational, the democrats will overperform, but the public isnt always rational, and we cant really impose our smart guy biases onto people who probably didn't even start tuning in until the past week or so. The public is unpredictable, and a large segment of them are just really freaking ignorant. I don't know how to fix this at this point. Just keep trying I guess. But yeah. 

House

At this point, I'm going to use the polling model as my main model. I'll still keep a copy of the fundamentals model and update it, but there's nothing to call home about with it. Still at 235-200. This one is at 239-196. It has less certainty than the fundamentals model, at only 96% instead of 99%, but at the same time, the polling only model has a slightly higher result on average, and a slightly higher ceiling.

Either way, for the most part, the debate isn't about whether democrats will win, but how much. I guess if we go by a 95% certainty two tailed, the polling model predicts anything from 214-221R up to 259-176D so technically the dems CAN theoretically lose, but the odds are relatively small and remote. These are like Obama 2008 style numbers in terms of certainty, just to give you an idea of how I expect this to go. And yeah, I don't have a ton to say here.

Governors

 

The governors map is just what it is. Some races that are hopeless for republicans in the senate are viable in the governorships. it just goes to show, in my view, that 2026 is more a rejection of trump and the federal version of the republican party, but it's not necessarily a rejection of conservatism or tacit approval of the democratic party. The democrats are just the alternative, and while not particularly popular themselves, they are popular enough in the senate to have a massive blue wave. Still, for the governors map it looks more like an Obama era map more or less. I guess the rule is, if you can distance yourself from trump and come off as a radical moderate, you can still win elections on the local level. It's why I think susan collins can still win the senate too. 

Conclusion

So, we've come a long way, but it really does seem like the democrats can pull off both a house and senate victory. The house is a lot more certain than the senate, but clearly, they're favored to win in both chambers. It's bonkers. However, when you really think about it, maybe not. See, we've been here before. Basically Trump decided to make the bad move of all bad moves and attack iran, driving oil prices up and making America like the Carter years again. His tariff policies also have echoes of Herbert Hoover in the great depression. I ain't saying that Trump's legacy for his second term is as bad as hoover's yet, but he's definitely working on being Jimmy Carter. Either way, this could escalate into a party realignment if the republicans aren't careful. It is time after all.

At the same time, I'm a bit skeptical of the narrative that we will see a massive permanent shift to the democrats and a new political reality to define politics for decades to come. People dont seem willing to reject conservatism as a whole yet (even though they should). They just seem to be rejecting Trump. This is why we see such differences between the senate map and the governors map. Republicans can still win if they're moderate, sane, and know when to shut up. The problem is, in the age of trump, many won't. And it will cause the democrats to win again in 2026, and probably 2028 as well. The real question is: can they hold their Ws? That remains to be unseen. And Im not even gonna say if only we ran democratic socialists we can win by this point. Much like with Trump, the imitators like AOC dont seem as popular as the possible realigning guy. In 2016, Bernie absolutely could've won. But he's too old, and in 2024, we didn't even have a decent left wing candidate, and as I've been saying, AOC's numbers arent great for 2028. At the same time, establishment democrats arent popular either. With that said, it almost feels like w'ere doomed to repeat this song and dance again. Dems suck, lose support, and people vote for republicans again eventually when democrats retake power. So idk. Either way, it does seem like we're ending an era either way, with Trump and possibly trumpism and that in your face brand of politics finally losing its appeal. Trump cant run again, and people hate his successors. The best you can do is have JD Vance or Marco Rubio try to look sane. 

Of course, I also suspect things will get worse before they get better. The AI bubble is arguably starting to pop and by 2028, the country might be in a full on second great recession. In that case, populist politics might end up coming back again for the democrats. All in all, we'll have to see where things go, although I know what I want for 2028 (Andrew Yang). Still, Im not sure that's where the country wants to go. Again, we'll see.

Anyway, that's the prediction for now. I'll update monday and possibly refine that prediction on tuesday before polls close to have my final prediction. I dont expect it to be a great deal different than this, but yeah, we can see where things are going.