Wednesday, April 11, 2018
Looking forward to 2020, electoral college math
If the democrats held the blue wall, Clinton would have won 296-242. With Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania held by democrats, I only saw one path to victory for Trump, and it would've given him a narrow 270-268 victory. This with the GOP sweeping the board more or less. You could MAYBE throw in Colorado and Virginia in there, which used to vote republican more, but that would still have Trump winning less than he did with the states he won.
In an election cycle the democrats aren't quite as unpopular and unlikable, the dems will kick the crap out of the republicans. Take this map for instance. This is a much more middle of the road map in my opinion. The dems win, but not by a massive margin. Basically Trump's 2016 margin or Obama's 2012 margin. If the democrats really do good, this isn't out of the question.
Considering how the GOP will not be nearly as popular or the democrats nearly as unpopular going into 2020, I could see the democrats winning, assuming they win the rust belt. The rust belt is currently the most integral region to swinging elections. Traditionally democratic territory in recent years but has been turning more purple as the democrats have basically abandoned these people. If the democrats can win them back with a strong working class message, and run a candidate not nearly as disliked as Clinton, the democrats could have won 2016 with ease. And they'll likely win 2020 with ease too.
A huge aspect of Clinton's strategy that fell apart was she was trying too hard to go on the offensive in the south in states like Georgia, Arizona, and Texas, appealing to Latinos and moderates in an attempt to swing those states. But these states aren't purple enough to consider Clinton a serious candidate, and as such, she not only failed to win them over, she lost more traditional battleground states and rust belt states who wanted something different. Triangulation works good for democrats in theory, but in practice, is a double edged sword. You stand to gain 2 demographics instead of 1, but you could also lose both, which is what Clinton did.
The current political map favors democrats overall, it just requires them to run a competent game plan that doesn't gamble away their advantage in hope of a landslide victory. It doesn't matter if you win by 270 electoral votes or 400, you're president all the same (although admittedly 400 does give you a stronger mandate). It's highly likely in my opinion that Trump will lose his bid for a second term, although it's not a foregone conclusion. If the democrats go into next election overconfident again, they could end up with another rude awakening.
Tuesday, April 3, 2018
The past year or so in review
Russia and the democrats
The democrats have spent most of this year focusing on Russia and trying to rally the narrative around them as a righteous mccarthyist alternative to a nation full of traitors. The democrats go after Trump with Russia to bring attention away from themselves, and to attack Trump and disaffected lefties like me who just won't buy the mainstream narrative.
I'm gonna be honest, I haven't been paying attention to this season of The Apprentice with all the firings going down from this Russia stuff among other things, and quite frankly, I don't care (to be honest at this rate it looks like Mike Pence is gonna win). Drama bores me, and this reminds me of the kinds of witch hunts the republicans did against Clinton with Benghazi. If there's truth to be told and charges to come out, let them come out, after all we can't tolerate actual traitors, but I think we should avoid the kinds of alarmism the democrats are doing on this subject.
One thing I will point out the clear the air here is when I was active with this blog in 2016, I wrote some articles about Guccifer 2.0 and the wikileaks leaks. Yeah, apparently those were actually released by Russia. I just wanna clear the air and be honest here. Russia apparently released the info and I didn't know it at the time.
Does this mean I bought into Russia propaganda though? No. And here's why. I am a critical thinker, I've been calling BS on the democratic party since before this stuff came out, and when this stuff came out it was evidence of previous claims. All Russia did was confirm what many of us already figured out. And because the information came from Russia, does that mean it's all of the sudden wrong? If you're a democrat, apparently so, but if you're me, a critical thinker with no real solid affiliation to any organization I would sell out my values for, no. That's a whole bunch of poisoning the well right there. Does Russia have motivations for releasing this stuff? Yes, they wanted Trump elected because he's an idiot. Does the DNC have motivations for trying to get everyone to ignore it? Yes, they want to cover up their corruption and whip everyone up in a patriotic fervor and get them to forget all about their misdeeds. There, plain and simple. Everyone has motivations all around and we shouldn't just buy into one narrative and ignore the other because we don't like who says it. You're gonna "buy into someone's propaganda" no matter what you do, all you can do is make your own narrative and interpret information within your own interests. Which is what I'm doing. We should punish and sanction Russia for doing this crap to us. I'm not saying we shouldn't (although a democrat will interpret it that way). But we also shouldn't turn a blind eye to the democrats and their corruption. They still had an unfair primary and when taken to court didn't even defend themselves, they basically said they had a right to rig it. And yeah, I just wanted to clear the air there. The way I see it the democrats still did shady things, regardless of where the information came from.
HRC still doesn't get it
Clinton is still as clueless as ever as to why she lost. She wrote a book last year called "What Happened?" and while there were a few moments of clarity in there (gee, maybe I should've run on a basic income platform, maybe that would've won!....ya think?!), she largely missed the mark and blamed Russia, Bernie Bros, James Comey, etc. While these factors likely did have an impact, it almost has a "and I would've gotten away with it too if it weren't for those meddling kids" vibe. Yes those factors mattered, but the big thing is that YOU SUCKED AS A CANDIDATE. Seriously, Clinton was the worst candidate the democrats could've run and she still lacks the self awareness mostly to understand why she lost. Even more recently, she had a statement about how she won the productive people, forward thinking people and basically insulted people who didn't vote for her by implying they're racist and sexist. Yeah, you didn't win the unproductive people because they're pissed off you had nothing to offer them. DUH. And the democrats haven't won racists over since the 60s really. Really, I wish she would just go away. She's clueless.
Trump is an incompetent moron
Given how the democrats act, I don't really regret my Stein vote, but man does Trump push it sometimes. He's largely pushed a right wing agenda, but thankfully, he can't seem to pass anything. ACA is still intact, and his only real legislative accomplishment is some tax cuts he's now crediting an "economic boom" for. I kinda knew this would happen. Trump is weak and lacks leadership. On foreign policy he's a joke and spends more time insulting Kim Jong Un on twitter than doing anything productive, and I hope the idiot doesn't start a war. He doesn't seem to understand Kim Jong Un is putting on an act. And Trump is taking him seriously and that's scary. It's like being the only one not in on a joke and getting offended and you hope the now rampaging idiot doesn't start hitting anyone. Domestically, again, largely a failure, ACA still intact, Mexico not paying for the wall (who didn't see that one coming?), and okay, yay trickle down.
To topple the actual tax cuts thing being good for america, let me say a few things. We have a system in capitalism in which we have booms and busts. 2008 was a huge bust. 2010 and onward the economy has been "booming" or expanding. 8 years later it's relatively prosperous as the stock market is high, we're getting our growth back, and unemployment is down. "Thanks, Obama!" No really, Obama oversaw the crap years and now Trump's trying to take credit for a logical expansion of years of recovery. Even then, I am still of the opinion things aren't great. What good is a good stock market and growth if the gains go to the top and the people at the bottom are in just as precarious of a position as ever? Oh yay you got a 1k tax cut! Big deal, that's chump change compared to what you SHOULD be getting. What good is low unemployment when labor participation is down, you still need 3+ years experience for an "entry level" job and you're stuck working jobs you hate? Trump and the republicans have a way of twisting the optics of the economy to look like things are better than they are. The democrats tried to do this but failed because let's be honest, a lot of people on the left are aware of the shortcomings of the economy as it exists, but the right....the right loves this kind of stuff. They can claim token victories on various issues and make it look like they're doing a lot. Meanwhile the democrats who are literally do nothings look like crap in comparison...this is what happens when you triangulate. You get the results of the republicans, without being able to take credit because you're muddying ideological grounds between democrats and republicans. Sure sometimes you can win enough on both sides to win, but otherwise both the left and the right turn on you. Which is what happened.
But yeah, I just wanted to write on my feel of the Trump presidency. Doesnt know what he's doing, incompetent to pass much, outside of tax cuts, and tax cuts are highly exaggerated in their effect.
Roseanne premiere and democratic hate
Meanwhile, Roseanne had a series reboot last week and the democrats are hating on that. Why? Because her character, like her real life counterpart, supports Trump. Because of this a lot of democrats are losing their minds and refusing to watch. Which is stupid. Roseanne has always been a show about the white working class in the rust belt. You know, the people the democrats NEED to pay more attention to. She's always pushed progressive values on her show, tackling controversial topics like race relations, abortion, gay marriage, and stuff related to worker rights and the crap people near the bottom have to go through. How abusive and obnoxious her various bosses were over time and how degrading wage employment is. Heck her show even has SOCIALIST sympathies as during the lottery season she fantasized of buying out her old place of employment and turning it over to the workers. Yeah, that happened. Real life roseanne isnt much different. As recently as 2012 she ran for the green party on a socialist platform and eventually ran on another party when she lost to Jill Stein.
Now, feminist, progressive, socialist roseanne supports Trump. What the actual ****? The show doesnt have tons of an overt political focus, but she mentioned on the show "he talked about jobs and shaking things up." You know, something Clinton didn't. And just look at the themes of the new show. Darlene is moving back home after losing her job, her kid is gender curious, DJ's kid is black, and they're paying twice as much for half the meds. This show really does a good job I think of painting Trump supporters less of the "deplorable" stereotype people like Clinton are trying to push, but of really progressive people who actually are living in a craphole of an economy. See my above themes in the Trump section. Notice how the democrats failed to address these problems. Yeah, okay, unemployment is 4%, so why are people still struggling? We passed the ACA, why is healthcare so unaffordable? The democrats OBVIOUSLY need a different direction, and could easily win over these people if they weren't afraid to embrace capitalism, but they won't. They're too busy writing off working class voters to appeal to rich moderate republicans in cities. No, literally, this is Chuck Schumer on the democratic party's election strategy in 2016:
“For every blue-collar Democrat we lose in western Pennsylvania, we will pick up two moderate Republicans in the suburbs in Philadelphia, and you can repeat that in Ohio and Illinois and Wisconsin.”Yeah, how did that turn out for you?
Conclusion
Yeah as you guys can tell, Im deeply cynical with the current state of things. The republicans are idiots, of course I knew they would be. The democrats are clueless and have sold out the people and would rather go on a mccarthyist crusade and vote shame than actually run a platform people can vote for, and nothing is getting done. I struggle to even consider myself a democrat these days. I definitely have more of an affinity toward the greens and the like and wished they ran more competent people than Jill Stein (someone more like Nader maybe?). Only reason I'm registered as a democrat is because I still want to maybe try to influence primaries again. But if the democrats don't shape up, Im probably gonna stuck with third parties from here on out.
Thursday, July 6, 2017
Dear democrats, we're angry for a reason!
So...a lot of democrats still don't get it. Every time I see a discussion about the problems with the democratic party, I see two camps emerge. There's the camp that the party is a bunch of wishy washy centrists who don't support real solutions and tried to strongarm us into settling for a lesser of two evils...and then there's the camp that thinks that the first camp is a bunch of whiny ingrates who put their "purity tests" ahead of country and how we would've won if only we fell in line. As you guys know, I'm firmly in the first camp, and do not believe that the democrats really have a good economic platform. I'm sorry, but Obamacare and other wishy washy solutions aren't good enough. Our economic system is fundamentally broken and needs to be fixed, and the dems have run so far to the right since Reagan that they're now occupying a similar ideological slot as the pre Reagan republican party.
Many of us want significant change, real change. We don't think the Obama years were great. A lot of centrists are now telling me how awesome the Obama years were....you mean those years where unemployment was sky high and came down because of a 4 point drop in labor force participation? Those years where you can graduate college and have trouble finding a job at McDonalds? Those years? Obama did some decent things, but let's not romanticize the guy or act like he did the best that anyone can do. He was a competent leader, but competence is a BASELINE for governance, not a feature. The dems seem to think merely having someone competent is good enough because the republicans are so far off the rails that they can't elect anyone who isn't either an ideologue with terrible policies or an idiot. That's what we're being told about Clinton now too, that at least if we didn't have Clinton we would have competent leadership, yeah, but again, competence is a baseline. It should be a minimum requirement for the job, not a freaking feature. How much does our political system sucks merely being competent becomes the key reason we should support someone?
As for purity tests...we "Bernie Bros" did not become this alienated and pissed off with the democrats overnight. Unlike what people are saying, we actually aren't throwing a tantrum because we couldn't get everything we wanted. I mean, even Bernie is a compromise for me, he isn't for basic income and crap. But you know what? He's a step in the right direction and I'll support him for that. Clinton? Again, the key problem is it seems like the dems tried to ensure no one else but Clinton could be the nominee, and then they tried to do damage control to force the hold outs to vote for her. As I've echoed since this blog started, I felt like we were being bullied and strong armed. And under such circumstances, the only move we have left IS to refuse to support her. Her election depends on us playing along with being bullied? Fine, we'll throw the election on her to teach the dems not to pull this crap on us again. And it worked. Trump is in office. I don't like Trump at all, but I don't regret him being there as it was a necessary evil. The point is, the dems pissed us off so bad, that we left the dems, stayed home or voted for Stein....and now we got an orange oompa loompa. Not thrilled with that, but given what the dems tried to do, it's an acceptable outcome to me.
Now, the onus is on the dems to understand why we got that pissed off and rectify the problem. We didn't do this in a vacuum. We're not being childish. We just resent being bullied and strong armed into supporting a crappy candidate. I didn't vote for Trump. I went third party. I signaled to the democrats that I don't like Trump either...if I did, I would support thim. Instead, I supported their closest ideological alternative that is more in line with my politics, basically telling them they need to change.
If the dems want to win elections, they need to stop bullying their voters. They need to stop taking us for granted, talking down to us, condescending to us, and telling us we better get with the program or we get something worse. We called you on that, and now we got the oompa loompa. Now do we wanna work on fixing our problems and getting back to winning and having good progressive policies or what? No more centrist crap, no more lesser of two evils. Don't run an explicit lesser of two evils campaign. Evil is still evil. At least try to appeal to us. We don't have to get everything we want right away, but we need to be assured that you will TRY. There is a huge difference between single payer and obamacare. True free college and hillary's original plan with income limits and work requirements. Basic income and welfare. One solution is universal and fixes systemic issues we face once and for all. The other is a band aid. And I'm sick of mediocre band aids. I respect candidates who try and fail more than ones who don't try at all. I'd rather see Bernie try to pass single payer and fail than Clinton just do nothing and kill the debate for good.
That said, dems...take a good, hard look at yourselves. We didn't get so pissed off at you we effectively left the party and supported a third party or stayed home because we were being spoiled brats. We did it because you effectively cornered us with ultimatums and threats and we called you on it. And now we're all living with the consequences. If you want to avoid a repeat, learn to appeal to your voter base rather than alienating them. We don't owe you a vote. You need to earn it. Kay. Thanks. Bye.
Friday, May 5, 2017
The republicans never fail to disappoint
The logic behind this bill comes off as pure selfish sociopathy. The republicans don't want healthcare system in which the sick can afford healthcare. They want a system in which only those who can afford healthcare can get it. Everyone pays for themselves, and if you are sick and can't afford it, screw you. They don't even hide it, Alabama republican Mo Brooks basically pretty much said that, and also implied people who get sick do so for not leading good lives. I really don't have much to say about this than screw these people. The kinds of sociopathy required to be a republican these days, the idea that we should save tax payers a few bucks by leaving them to die, is so outrageous to me I don't know how this is acceptable in the modern political spectrum. This is lunacy. These people are sociopathic nutjobs.
The ACA may not have been perfect, I complain about it a lot. But the idea that it makes healthy people help subsidize sick people is a feature, not a bug. Sick people NEED healthcare the most, and under free market economics get royally screwed when trying to acquire it. ACA didn't go far enough but it took significant measures to improve that. And you know what? Guess what healthy people, you get sick too sometimes. And you will get sick as you get older. Everyone does. Has anyone seen anyone in their 80s and 90s who don't have medical issues? Heck, anyone hear of anyone in their 50s and 60s without one? The republicans are the real death panels here. Get sick? Screw off and die. That's their motto.
Trump voters, I hope you understand what you brought forth on this country. You brought forth extremist sociopaths who more or less don't care if people die as long as it lowers their taxes. These people are deplorable, and I hate to use the Hillary word, but if you still support these guys knowing this, you're deplorable too. And if you are morally outraged by this and voted for Trump, lesson learned, don't vote republican. Wish you would've learned this sooner, but just as I needed a rude awakening to realize these people are sociopathic crooks, so may you, and I won't judge you for it. Anyway,if that's you, welcome to liberalism, home of sensible public policy that helps people and doesn't leave them to die. We're happy to have you. Don't support the republicans again. You don't have to like the democrats even. I don't. Just make sure you never vote republican again. This is their true colors. Don't forget it.
Tuesday, May 2, 2017
Dillahunty Syndrome and Me
For those who don't know what Dillahunty Snydrome is, it's named after Matt Dillahunty, a host of the Atheist Experience. Long story short, debating the same thing over and over tends to wear you out after a while. You can explain a concept once, even twice, and it will be intellectually satisfying. But by the time you have to explain it for the 100th time, it gets old. You lack the energy to do it any more. You run out of craps to give. And when you do try you do it half ***ed and tend to get angry at the thought of having to do it again. It becomes like climbing a mountain, just to get some of the most basic thoughts out.
I've been spending a lot of time focusing on other stuff since the election, and I still likely will for the foreseeable future. I'm not really improving on this matter. It's not that I don't care. I care a lot. I just lack the energy to keep revisiting the same topics and debating with people and I have quite frankly run out of things to talk about at this current time. I might return to these topics in the future, but long story short, expect a further hiatus on this subject. I may shift focus here and there and focus on other things to talk about, but even then, I don't really have much energy right now. This is natural for me. I go through phases in which I'm fired up and can't stop talking, and then I go through phases at which the idea of discussing these subjects again gets old. I could focus on other stuff, related to, idk, PC hardware and gaming or whatever (another interest of mine that's getting much more of my attention lately, as I have recently upgraded my computer), but that's not really what this blog is about, so I really don't discuss it here.
Anyway, I just wanted to stop in and say a few things and let people know I'm still alive. I'm here. I'm just...not motivated right now.
Clintonites give "identity politics" a bad name
But identity politics in and of itself isn't a bad thing. There are real issues that women face, that racial and religious minorities face. That non straight white males of a protestant faith face. And you know what? The toxic identity politics of which I speak takes away from these very legitimate issues.
Hillary Clinton has recently blamed her electoral defeat on sexism. This is about 5% truth, and 95% BS. Sure, there was some sexist people in this country, but many people who didn't like her, especially on the left, didn't like her because she was a corrupt scumbag who stole the primary and arrogantly talked down and browbeat voters into submission.But hey, someone with that mentality isn't going to actually admit that they did something wrong, so they hide behind identity politics. It wasn't that she's a bad candidate, it's all those darned sexists who say bad things about her. And if you dare say anything bad about her, you are apparently a sexist. This is how scum like this protect themselves. They can't admit they did wrong. So they blame everyone else, and you know what? Doing this is a slap in the face to real women everywhere, who face real discrimination.
Many people are going to be turned off from identity politics completely because these obnoxious people abuse it to further their own political careers. It's sickening. This is how we get the right screaming about the left seeing themselves as victims. Because when identity politics is abused to actually make someone who did something wrong or pissed people off for other reasons appear to be innocent and a victim of sexism, it kind of makes everyone who points out legitimate sexism and crap into whiners too. It's sickening and needs to stop.
Another example of this identity politics being abused recently comes in the form of Trevor Noah's comments on Obama taking $400,000 to give a Wall Street Speech. He said something along the lines that apparently the first black president must also be the first one to not take money after all the white people did so. Seriously dude? Clinton came under fire for wall street money and the DNC sponsored media claimed sexism...now it's racism because we go after Obama for doing the same thing? Are we only allowed to criticize straight white male protestants now? That seems to be the game these people play. Only straight white male protestants can be criticized, any criticism of anyone else must fall into some form of "ism" or "phobia". Once again, it's sickening, and it detracts from the real issues that people face. Real women who struggle with the glass ceiling see their cause degraded because just about the most privileged woman in the country is throwing a hissy fit over not winning the election. Every black person who faces legitimate discrimination and double standards sees their cause degraded by these jokers running to Obama's defense for taking Wall Street money. Screw these people.
Thursday, April 6, 2017
Dear republicans: regret Trump yet?
But what is probably worth writing about is the regret people are getting for voting for Trump. I could say, see I told you so, but once again, it's something that goes without saying. Trump may have made promises to make America great again, but he has no real clue of how to do this and his first few months in office are rocky and uneventful. He couldn't get the ACA repealed because, surprise, healthcare is complicated and just repealing Obamacare would've led to all kinds of harm done. I have to say I'm pleased with that falling through.
What has gotten through though is this bill to expose peoples' internet history to the public. Now, from what I heard it's nowhere near as bad as some are saying, you can't just ask to buy X person's history, you get a bunch of anonymized data that you might be able to piece together if you really try and match with a name, but this is likely going to be difficult. It's concerning nevertheless, but it's not the end of the world from what I've seen. Regardless, a lot of republicans are having regret voting for Trump. Some people are a certain kind of special and love their ACA but hate their Obamacare, and others feel taken advantage of by having the republicans pass this bill that threatens their internet privacy.
Once again, I could say see I told you so, but it's too easy. Anyway, at this point, you shouldn't be surprised. After all, the republicans don't care about you, they don't even care about their principles. They care about the interests if the donor class. They were never gonna make America great again, that was just what they said to sell their ideas that serve the donor class to you. And because your alternative was Hillary Clinton, who also is corrupt and hypocritical, you actually believed Trump and gave him support. Way to go.
This is why I didn't go for Trump. I might have my grievances with the democrats being corrupt hypocritical scumbags, but you wanna know who the real master of being a corrupt, hypocritical scumbag is? The republican party.
If you're a republican, if you're a conservative....just support the democrats and their policies at this point. Just support people like Hillary, please. Hillary and the democrats these days are basically conservatives with brains. Sometimes that "pragmatic" crap they sell comes in handy, because their views are way more pragmatic and doable in practice than the republicans' ideas ever are. It turns out, hey, Obamacare is good for something if you're not a single payer pushing progressive like myself. It actually does do a lot of good. And it is better than literally nothing. Wanna know why that is? It was a republican plan in the first place! Obamacare is what happens when right wingers apply themselves to actually fix the problems we have. It isn't the best plan in the world, and it isn't in line with my philosophical outlook on the world, but hey, at least it's something, right? And it turns out repealing it is actually a bad idea that could do all kinds of screwed up things and hurt people. I guess politics is more complicated than abstract promises to reduce the size of government. Also, the democrats didn't want to sell your personal browsing history to corporations, so how about that?
With democrats, you basically get pro free market, "small government", American civil religion supporting incremental change. You get people trying to solve problems, without really trying to do much to fix them. As a former conservative, let me just say that even if I still had conservative principles, I would still find the democratic party to be a much more attractive option than the republican party. The republican party is run by thieving rich people and lunatics. The democratic party is run by more moderate and rational thieving rich people and policy wonks who push what used to be conservative policies but are rebranded as liberal because the republican party has gone so insane that it doesn't have a semblance of good policy any more.
So...that's what I'm encouraging. I'm encouraging the republicans to start starting more like the democrats, and then we liberals, we can move left, get actual progressive ideas in politics to counter the more moderate right wing plans pushed by the current democrats, and we are all happy. Except for the lunatics on the right who can't be trusted with a city council position, let alone high ranking positions in the federal government.
Maybe if republicans start sounding more like democrats and the democrats move to the left we can actually get crap done again. We will actually get some decent leadership and be able to debate issues like adults, and not have to deal with the travesty of people like Donald Trump and Mitch McConnell and Paul Ryan running things. I may have disagreements with the modern democratic party, but I still find their views at least substantive and worth discussing. They're not as far left as I would support, but sometimes you need a more right wing conservative party with more moderate ideas to rein in the excesses of the left and stop them from going full on communist or something. The modern republican party? No. They don't do anything good for anyone. Except maybe killing the TPP. Everything else has been a travesty so far.