So, we already know about the democrats. I've discussed them at length, but this time I wanna talk about what I see the future of the GOP as. There are multiple ways it can go post Trump.
The moderate path
The best path for the country is if the GOP goes the moderate path, here, they kind of implode after Trump. The Trump administration is so bad it leaves a sour taste in the mouths of voters for decades, emboldening democrats and progressives to move left. This awakens a coalition that has long been coming for the democratic party, in which people are actually enthusiastic to vote democrat. We see the democratic party not just win in 2026 and 2028, but also 2030, 2032, and onward. The republican coalition just...implodes. Post Trump, the appeal is gone, and the demographic time bomb goes off as boomers start dying off and millennials/gen Z are the dominant voting blocs. It's over, done, and the GOP becomes a semi permanent minority party.
It will begin clawing back some support through the 2030s as an opposition inherently develops to the new democratic led paradigm, similar to how the GOP eventually came back after FDR and Truman, but they might not hit their groove until 2040 or later. Between now and then, they just find themselves unable to win elections, as the majority of the country overwhelmingly becomes comfortable with the democrats. It's only when people finally tire of democrats that we see a new republican administration take form.
The extreme path
I mean, the moderate path is the one I'd like them to take. It's the one that kills the coalition and leads to unconditional ideological surrender. But I dont think the coalition is just gonna die. The thing is, going moderate WILL kill it. Neocons are dead. That wing of the party has lost the ideological battle since 2010 and has been rejected over and over again. They aint coming back. If they did, the party would refuse to vote for them because they're not like the democrats and their "vote blue no matter who" crap.
So...as I see it, the future of MAGA isnt gonna go quietly into the night, and quite frankly, I dont trust the democrats to land the fatal blow. Whats likely gonna happen is they're gonna reject the institutional conservatives with the Trump administration, the ones who are pro Israel, who wanted war. And they're gonna become more openly anti establishment, but also more anti semitic. Think Nick Fuentes. Think those republican group chat people talking about gas chambers, yeah.
And you know what? if democrats fail to deliver change in 2028, well, we're gonna see republican turnover in 2030 and 2032. That core MAGA base, that 30-40% of the country that's ride or die on them, will vote for them. And a lot of the same independents who have been swinging elections since 2008 or even earlier will swing back to the republicans. And the dems will lose, the GOP will win again, and once again we'll have to learn that you dont touch a hot stove. It seems cyclical at this point. Like that was the realignment. The GOP implodes, the dems implode, the GOP radicalizes and implodes, the dems moderate and implode. And nothing ever gets better, it keep getting worse. This cycle continues until roughly 2052 when we enter an 8th party system as some crisis blows up FORCING broader changes. If democracy even exists by then. I'm not sure it actually will at this point. And yeah.
Which is more likely?
We are on the path for the second one. Sadly, the democrats seem to be blowing it and are unable to land an actual fatal electoral blow to the GOP and its coalition. I suspect they'll win in 2026 and 2028...but 2030 and 2032 are not guaranteed, and its very well possible we'll see a GOP resurgeance after that as whatever MAGA remnants claw their way back to relevance as the dems run out of steam. I'd love to be proven wrong, but the dems just seem hopeless and we seem locked in this pattern. As I said, Im not sure if 2016 was a realignment or just the start of a dealignment. The current parties are closer to their 6th party system versions than something new. MAGA is just the stage 4 cancer version of the Nixon/Reagan coalition and the current dems are still fundamentally the Clinton coalition. Thats the problem actually. The parties are still stuck in their 6th party system versions when theres been a push toward wanting change that the system isnt delivering since 2016 and arguably since 2008. But if the democrats dont emerge as that change agent in a positive way, we're just gonna be stuck in an extended version 6th party system as the same voting patterns emerge as the parties resist change, so we just spend the 7th party system bouncing back and forth between the parties.
The closest historical analogue to this is the 2nd party system between the jacksonian democrats (MAGA and this case) and the whigs (dems in this case). And that party system was worthless and it just led to the civil war. We literally have whole eras where nothing good happens because the politicians just are serving whatever corporate or special interests exist at the time, and the people want a change that doesnt come. But then eventually a bigger crisis down the road forces the change to happen, leading to a period of rapid change followed by stabilization around a new status quo. We might be in one of THOSE realignments. Which sucks. It means we're a lost generation similar to the people who lived in the final decades of slavery, or in the gilded age where the politicians ignored the issues, but then eventually were forced to act.
If we are on this path, I'd expect this crisis to occur in around 26 years in 2052, or 36 years after 2016.
However, if we assue a 48 year realignment schedule (similar to the 5th-6th party system), its possible that 2016 was a 1968 like dealignment, 2028 is the real realignment as the backlash to trump is so severe it leads to a transformational democratic presidency, and that will officially kick off the 7th party system, leading to its eventual collapse around 2064, and the next realignment to occur in 2076. It really depends on what timeline we're on and what assumptions we make. I guess we'll see what we get in 2028. Everything for now is speculation.
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