So, Michigan just had a poll come out showing Mallory McMorrow at 6%, and while it could be a flawed outlier, people are scratching their heads at the fall of this candidate. How did she go from #1 to being distant third? I mean, I've been following it, and I have some ideas, so I wanna do a tear down of what I think happened.
The race is three way
So, as we know, the race is three way between Haley Stevens, the moderate candidate, Abdul El Sayed, the progressive, and Mallory McMorrow, the more middle ground candidate. Originally McMorrow seemed well positioned. El Sayed wasnt taken super seriously and Haley Stevens, at least in my view, is kinda anti charismatic. Like, I find her offputting. Shes very rehearsed, and very generic, and idk she just rubs me the wrong way. Then again I'm a progressive so what would I know?
Either way, she ran a triangulation strategy in which she was taking both from Stevens and from El Sayed. Like, she could argue she was a bit more moderate and electable than El Sayed, and a bit more progressive than Stevens. And honestly, had she played her hand well, I think would have won. Initially, I thought she had a solid platform, was very well researched, and was an excellent candidate on paper. But then she had to open her big mouth.
Picking fights with El Sayed and the two lanes of the democratic party
So, the democratic party has two lanes. You got progressives, and moderates. You technically have a third group that's idpol based, we discussed that in previous discussions of the democratic party's coalition, and how centrists tend to lock them down to deny progressives access to their votes, but that doesnt seem to be particularly in play here. So you got centrists...and progressives. And while a "moderate" candidate between them CAN triangulate and win, as we know on the national stage, sometimes you just end up in an uncanny valley of suck where you alienate both sides. And that's what happened with McMorrow. She basically picked a fight with El Sayed and his fan base, which gave more attention to El Sayed's campaign and her own, leading to a lot of purity testing, and she ended up imploding.
Heres the thing. For her to succeed, she needed to be the progressive option vs Stevens. THe best thing you could do with El Sayed is keep him marginalized and on the sidelines. If people just think "oh he's too extreme" then people would ignore him. I mean even I ignored him and I read his book. I was like "man he'd probably be good, but I cant see him winning the primary or the general so I guess I'll settle for McMorrow."
But then, you know all that Hasan derangement syndrome? That came from HER. OMG EL SAYED CAMPAIGNED WITH HASAN PIKER, HES AN EXTREMIST, RAWR! And what this did was pick a fight with the most dogmatic of bernie bros. And even me, who actually liked mcmorrow, but didnt care for this line of attack. I mean, I had nothing against El Sayed, and if anything, this made me look MORE into his campaign, as did a lot of progressives. And El Sayed is the real deal. Whereas McMorrow's weaknesses became more apparent. Not only is the hasan piker thing straight out of the 90s moral panic playbook, which backfires massively in the new generation, but then new battlelines formed between the el sayed camp and the mcmorrow camp. And...uh....McMorrow is kinda all over the place and wishy washy. Like...medicare for all. El Sayed LITERALLY wrote the book on M4A. And ironically, after reading it, and trying to fine tune my own M4A funding plan for my book, I ended up abandoning it, so I went into the public option camp myself, but....you cant question the guy's dedication to the idea. mcMorrow was for a public option and when asked about it, she gives weak and unconvincing answers. And of course, progressives are really riled up over palestine. And El Sayed is stronger on being anti israel, while McMorrow....isn't. She again, takes a weird middle ground she cant defend. So she came off as weak, she came off as bought and paid for, she came off as basically a centrist with more progressive window dressing, and progressives, including myself abandoned her. It's about authenticity. El Sayed is very authentic. Mcmorrow, isn't. El Sayed can say he doesnt take dark money and stuff, El Sayed cant. And in a purity test contest with a more moderate candidate, you cant out progressive El Sayed. So McMorrow's voter base...went to El Sayed.
And Haley Stevens....the moderate lane candidate, her campaign seemed to come back from the dead. She was floundering, but she basically started cannibalizing McMorrow's moderate base either. Because again, you aint gonna outmoderate the moderate. And Stevens, I think she's kind of a crappy candidate personally, but she's strong in her own right, and if you LIKE centrism, she has that covered. So now Stevens is coming in and eating up the rest of McMorrow's voter base. So who is left to vote for McMorrow? Apparently only 6% of the population. She's uncanny valley of suck. She's too moderate for the progressives, too progressive for the moderates, and she appeals to literally no one now.
Inevitably, this is gonna happen to a lot of people in that McMorrow lane. I mean, remember Yang's Mayoral run? Caught between the moderate and the progressive. And even the more "center left" lane was eaten up by another candidate. So he got virtually no one. 2020 primary? Caught between Biden and Sanders. McMorrow is more like that, but shes more like an Elizabeth Warren. Not as progressive as Sanders, and then having the tone deaf political instinct of picking a fight with the progressive voter base by launching an ill advised attack on said more progressive candidate. Which causes an ugly civil war, which cannibalizes that center left lane. So...it alienates the progressives, it doesnt win over moderates, and yeah. The voter base collapses into two lanes. Centrist and progressive. And just like Warren didnt fit into either, neither did McMorrow.
In a way, it's kinda frustrating. Because as I've evolved and fine tuned my own platform, I find myself in this theoretical Yang/Warren/McMorrow camp. I mean, I am a progressive at heart, but my policies are going in a bit of a more moderate direction, mainly because I wanna save money to invest in UBI instead, which progressives wont even touch. So my ideology isnt aligned with progressives at this point. I like them more than moderates as moderates are the most worthless people in the democratic coalition, but I'm actually in that more center left middle ground coalition these days. I want a public option, most center left candidates are progressive outside of M4A, M4A is like the big sticking point that unites the hard left. Israel is another sticking point. I mean, as you guys know I'm not a hardcore progressive on Israel/Palestine and find the free palestines kiddies annoying. So idk, i'm falling out with the progressive camp. Im not a centrist, in theory, a McMorrow like candidate appeals to me, but if they cant actually defend their positions, they're just gonna get crushed. And McMorrow just invited the ire of the progressive fan base and her campaign has been cannibalized from both sides.
Now I'm in the El Sayed camp despite liking McMorrow in theory. And again, what kills McMorrow for me in particular is her lack of authenticity. She seems very corporate sponsored, she is very weak on policy, she can't defend her ideas worth a crap. And yeah, it actually kills center left lane candidates in general, that lack of authenticity. I mean, a lot of progressives want someone who isnt bought and owned. And when you got this candidate sponsored by all of these groups that really REALLY hate el sayed, it's like...gee maybe we should go for El Sayed.
Honestly, even though I find it frustrating, I get it. if I were in michigan i would have been shifted to El Sayed too. I dont want someone controlled by say, the Israel lobby, or the anti M4A people either. I want someone who does what is best for the country. My own ideological concessions come from a position of wanting to further OTHER priorities. Namely UBI. But if youre doing it because youre in with the establishment and support their priorities, well...yeah. Youre gonna lose all progressives.
Honestly McMorrow would've been better off just continuing to ignore El Sayed. Had she not picked a fight with him, people would have continued to ignore him. he was third. THIRD! He wasnt a serious candidate early on. It was mostly mcmorrow vs stevens. And she was WINNING. So....yeah, she screwed up. And it destroyed her campaign.
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