So I'm gonna start doing more regular election updates. Not sure on the schedule yet, I normally like to do "whenever I feel like it", but I am thinking maybe a scheduled one every month? Maybe every few weeks? It'll get more frequent closer to election time. But yeah. I figured, first Friday in June, they dont do polls over the weekend as much, let's go.
Senate
The senate forecast is leaning toward democrats now. I would say they have roughly a 60% chance of taking it. Republicans have a 35% chance, with 5% being a tie. Of course, a tie is functionally a republican win, so that would be a 40% chance in practice. So yeah, basically a tossup, but one that's dem favored.
The map is pretty bad for republicans. I was even thinking, if I were a republican strategist, what do I even do with this? As we'll get to with the house, the public has shifted 9 points in favor of dems since 2024. It was up to 11 but those bullish averages kinda dropped back down. I'd be like, we're tied in Ohio, we're losing Alaska, Iowa, and Texas, wtf are we even doing here? Like, these were R+13 firewalls in 2024's presidential. But...that's what happens when your president doesnt deliver and then he implodes the economy and gets us into a war he promised not to get us in. And then he gets up there and goes on about how he doesnt care and he wants a ballroom. Real "let them eat cake energy" there. As I said back in 2025, this should be a layup. Sure, maybe they'll lose a seat or two, but that should be the extent of the bleeding. Republicans are really crapping the bed.
Honestly, the best strategy I could think of is just to do damage control on Trump and focus on specific races. I mean, while Maine is likely D, with Platner, there is a vulnerability there. If the republicans can hammer away at his average by unloading on him with scandals, or even better, if they can dislodge him on the eve of the primary so they run Mills again (keep in mind Mills was barely winning against Collins if she could win at all), then maybe they can keep Maine. North Carolina is lost. Georgia and New Hampshire, fat chance. Nebraska....well....it's generally an R favored state, but they're up against Dan Osborn. I'd just hold the line and say if we did it in 2024, we can do it again. Texas, probably lost for republicans, Paxton is the GOP's platner with no charm. Wtf trump was choosing nominating him is just...no. Iowa, Alaska, just keep holding the line and hope that we can do damage control. Ohio, hold the line. Michigan, hope the democrats pick El Sayed and hammer him as an extremist. It's all the GOP can do. It's a very bad year for them. All in all, If they can get michigan, keep maine, and then get at least 2 of the 4 red firewall states, they'll at least hold it 50/50, but yeah, that's not an amazing chance. I'd be crapping my pants if I were a republican tasked with holding the party together. It's hard to do damage control and campaign intelligently when you got a dementia addled 80 year old who acts like a toddler and goes on about how he doesnt care about the plight of the american people in the worst inflationary crisis in 50 years, which he started btw. I'd just be witnessing the blue wave with dread.
Now, as a democrat (or dem leaner), I, on the other hand, am very happy with the current situation. As a democrat, I'm looking at this like....yeah, Maine is almost locked down. THey're really hammering platner, but after roleplaying as a republican, you can see why they're going all in with the platner scandal, their best bet is to dislodge him before primary day so the GOP ends up with a weaker opponent. Dont fall for it, especially since the NYT article isnt landing well and is coming off like a hit piece on graham. North carolina is ours. I'd be cautiously optimistic about polling in the red firewall states, but i wouldnt count my chickens before they hatch. The polling is close and keep in mind, the polls can be wrong. Dems can still lose this. I wanna believe, but yeah, I'm not really fully confident either. MIchigan...idk what's up with that. it's way to the right of the other states. And while yes, that's El Sayed data, Stevens and McMorrow data arent much better, only bringing it from lean R to tossup. I think the dems can win here, after all, it's basically reverse texas polling wise right now. So yeah, cautious optimism for the GOP, cause of alarm for the dems. Ultimately, this can go anywhere between 54-46 Dem, to 48-52 GOP. Most likely result is 52-48 Dem right now.
House
As always, take my house model with a grain of salt, this is experimental and a "fundamentals" based forecast. Even worse, it's a highly simplified one. We discussed it before, but yeah. As of now, we can expect a 9 point shift from 2024. We were up to almost 11 like a few days to a week ago, but yeah. It doesn't change much. Raw model gives me 234-201, although when I adjust for gerrymandered districts I get 232-203 Dem. Other models I've seen online seem to hover around the same results. I mean, this is where we're at probabilistically. When the dems having almost a 98% chance of taking the house, and with the republicans being functionally locked out of it. In statistics, when dealing with polling, 95% two tailed (97.5% one tailed) is the gold standard. That's about an 8 point advantage in my model. We're at 9, making the result even better, and only with slight corrections do we see it drop back to just over that 97.5% mark. I'm A LOT more confident we take the house than the senate.
And again, what does the GOP even do here? You cant do damage control for the loudmouth in chief because he keeps undermining you because he doesnt know when to shut up. All they can do is gerrymander like there's no tomorrow and try to implement the "Save America" act to destroy mail in voting and implement voter ID. The republicans are in a position of being fundamentally screwed.
Governors
Yeah, here's the map. I have no idea what's going on in Georgia without polling. And yeah not a whole lot to say on this one. It looks mostly...normal to me. And yeah, PA isnt even in the prediction because they're like 20 points ahead or something crazy like that.
Conclusion
All in all, the democrats are in good shape and republicans are in bad shape. The fundamentals look like they'll carry the dems to victory, even in the senate where they're somehow ahead in relatively safe R states. The republicans have limited ability to do damage control. Trying to empathize with their position is painful because imagine trying to do damage control and then Donald gets up in front of the nation and opens his big mouth again. His choice of paxton over cornyn was self destructive, and yeah, the GOP is basically imploding bad right now.
Barring outright stealing it, I dont see the GOP winning here. They got the house locked down, and the senate is a tossup, but still slightly favorable to dems. It shouldnt even be anywhere near a tossup. GOP should hold firm control of it, but that red firewall is breaking this year, BADLY.
At the very least, I can understand why they're throwing everything they can and the kitchen sink at Graham Platner. That's like the one thing they CAN attempt to control for. Even then it doesnt seem to be working. It's like frieza throwing an energy ball into a spirit bomb heading right for him. Ya know?
So yeah. I'm feeling pretty confident right now, as a democrat.
No comments:
Post a Comment