So, this isn't an election update per se, I just did one of those last week and my predictions havent changed much other than some texas and generic congressional vote margins, but I do wanna discuss november.
Trump is crashing out HARD as president. And I've avoided making posts about this in particular, but I have been watching the situation closely for a while now, with the perspective of "let him cook." Because Trump is messing with the one sacred cow of the American people that no president dares mess with, and that's the economy. The economy is perpetually the #1 issue in voters minds, everything in politics is based on the metric "are you better off now than you were four years ago?", and that's one thing you absolutely dont wanna mess up. Because Americans will castigate you on it.
If you wanna know what propelled the New Deal coalition to the complete and utter success they had from the 30s to 60s, it was the economy. We had the great depression under hoover, he didnt help things, and people elected FDR in a landslide. A generation later, we had stagflation. Jimmy Carter didnt do much wrong, but he was hated because it happened on his watch and then Reagan came in and "fixed" it.
In 2008, Obama won in part because of the great recession. In 2016, Trump won, and Bernie Sanders arose to prominence, because people didn't believe democrats did a good enough job on it. Trump lost in 2020 because of COVID, but also, arguably, the economy. Then Biden ended up being mini Jimmy Carter again, dealing with inflation that wasnt really his fault and being unfairly blamed for it. And now Trump is doing the full carter and then some. Not only are his policies causing more inflation, but then he attacked Iran, basically recreating the 1970s oil crisis in the 2020s, the effects of which havent fully been realized yet, and basically creating a disaster.
And that's abnormal for presidents. As I normally say, presidents dont control the economy. They might make a few tweaks around the edges, but generally speaking, the economy is like so, the fed controls interest rates, attempts to balance full employment and inflation, jobs are created, people get jobs. Markets are gonna market. Yeah, you can argue some policies can help here and there, but again...market gonna market. The core fundamentals of the economy are generally self driven, with the fed doing most of the heavy lifting. This is why I lean LEFT. Because the way the left need to differentiate themselves is with state involvement in the market to make peoples' lives better. The right will balk that it hurts job creation, but a century of varying administrations under varying policies shows me that, the economy is gonna economy no matter what. The market is gonna market no matter what. You kind of need to be REALLY REALLY special to ACTUALLY mess up the economy in a meaningful way as president. And Donald Trump? Well, he's THAT kind of special. His tariffs are causing inflation, his war in Iran...BIG inflation, he's screwing up. BAD. Like, on a level not seen since Herbert Hoover bad. This guy is herbert hoover and jimmy carter combined at this point. I thought if Biden lost in 2024, given the carter comparisons and the apocalyptic polling that dems were getting, that if he lost, it would be one of those really bad generational losses you REALLY dont wanna be on the wrong side of. Because much like carter, Biden didn't do much wrong, but it didnt stop the public from blaming him anyway. All the republicans had to do was...govern relatively competently and they probably could've spun the next several decades as "remember the Biden economy?" and it would have dissuaded people from voting for democrats.
But....Trump....MAN. This guy is messing things up hard. And the worst thing for the republicans? he literally doesn't care. He's not thinking about peoples' finances given his hyperfixation on Iran. He's going on about how he wants a ball room and his name on everything, and all these golden monuments named after him. Ya know, real "let them eat cake" stuff there. And now today, he's like "I love the inflation!"
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As a progressive I'm just like HAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!!!! Like, I get it, Americans are struggling, that part isn't funny, but as you guys know, I actually have answers for that. But...I really can't help but laugh as this guy implodes his political legacy in real time. Trump is gonna be that name no republican is gonna wanna be attached to after this presidency.
But yeah, keep speaking like this Donald, you're just making us stronger, because the American people are gonna want you OUT after this one. I was gonna post approval numbers, including on the economy, but I seem to have some issues with RCP right now, but yeah, when that's working, look it up. He's probably at sub 40% approval right now, maybe 41-42% because his base is ride or die on him like he's Jim Jones or something. But the rest of the country HATES him. And even on the economy, last I looked his approval is like in the low 30s. He's COOKED. There's a reason my electoral maps have like 97% chance of dems taking the house and I even show them taking the senate despite an extremely hostile map toward democrats (assuming a relatively neutral year). I mean, the republicans are down in TEXAS, IOWA, NEBRASKA, and ALASKA FFS. And they're tied in OHIO last I looked. That's not a good look for them. You start losing THOSE states? That's like the dems losing Minnesota, Virginia, New Mexico, and stuff like that. Ya know...where Biden's numbers were going in 2024 before he dropped out. So....let's just say, this is a pleasantly surprising uno reverse card. Maybe we aren't cooked after all. If anything, maybe the GOP is. I honestly think when we're done with this, the name of Trump will go down in the history books along side the likes of James Buchanan, Herbert Hoover, and Jimmy Carter, and nay, be possibly worse than any of them. Because at least the other guys TRIED to not suck. Trump is just by far the worst president this country has ever had. Replace any of the three in modern times with trump and you'd likely get sane governance. Replace any of those three with trump in their own times, and trump would do it worse. What a great way to close out the 6th party system (if the 2028 theory holds true).
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