So...I had an interesting discussions last night. And....yeah, republicans still think they got a good shot in Maine. They still have this idea that Platner is a weak and vulnerable candidate and that republicans have this massive oppo research folder that they're waiting to spring on him after it's too late to pull him as a candidate. This is cope. It was arguably the republicans who pushed the recent smear pieces, with Platner's ex being a literal former (and possibly current) republican operative.
And I know the "respectability politics" types are like "YOU CANT JUST NOT BELIEVE WOMEN BECAUSE THEY'RE REPUBLICAN!" Man...you dont know me very well. I'm very much NOT a "believe all women" type, and if there's an explicit conflict of interest, yeah I dont trust the women at all. This reminds me of that one german influencer who tried metooing Till Lindemann after the irish chick accused him herself, where the story is intended to make him look bad, without them actually accusing him of anything SUPER DUPER bad. I dont buy it.
And yeah. The republicans pushed that before the primary because THEY wanted Platner out. Because they know they're gonna get their clocks cleaned by the guy. Platner is up 7.4% against Collins. In my model, that's a 97% chance of Platner winning. Mills, on the other hand, was down 0.2% vs collins. She only had a 48% chance.
And yes, republicans do overperform in Maine. 2020's results were a staggering 14 points off, which is a ridiculously high amount. I had Gideon up by 5, Collins won by around 9. Looking into it, Maine is notoriously hard to poll because of ranked choice voting. Republicans tend to get undersampled, and the republican I was arguing against was talking about undecideds breaking hard for Collins. But here's the thing. 49% of people currently want Platner. 41% want Collins. The republicans would need to pick up around 90% of all undecideds just to break even. And even more so, say I did increased the margin of error to say, 7 points to allow for a 14 point shift and even ANTICIPATE a possible 14 point shift. Okay. Well...that still gives me a Z score of 1.06, and Collins only gets around a 15-16% chance.
I mean, idk what you want me to say here. Collins prognosis isn't good. And republicans have a vested interest in ousting the guy. Any talk of some "secret oppo folder" comes off as bluffing. because if I were a republican, and I were in this situation, I'd try some weird psychological warfare to spook the dems out of supporting platner and destroying their "party unity" around the guy. I wouldnt be waving my hand around like "JUST YOU WAIT I HAVE TONS OF OPPO RESEARCH THATS FAR WORSE THAN WHAT WE'VE SEEN", this is bluffing. They're trying to get in our heads and push the democrats toward centrism, because as we know, "conventional knowledge" favors the narrative that "electable" means being "moderate", and being uncontroversial. Platner is neither, so that makes him a target with establishment dems freaking the fudge out because they think the guy is "unelectable." Never mind the fact that he literally has a 7 point polling advantage over his opposition. But thats the thing. Dems ignore polls when they dont favor them. We saw this with Bernie. They insisted that the republicans have a massive oppo research folder on bernie sanders and thats why clinton was more electable and polls dont matter. Meanwhile, same thing. Bernie's electoral fundamentals were WAY better than Clinton's. People LIKED bernie, they didnt like Hillary. It's the same thing here. People dont like Janet Mills. She's boring. She's old. She doesnt stand for anything. People like Platner. If anything, I saw a poll recently on kyle's show where they tried taking platner's comments in the lateast scandal out of context and it actually made him look cool and increased his support. So...that backfired.
Here's the thing. Respectability politics are dead. I know the pearl clutchers can't accept that, but it's true. We live in a populist era. Scandals that used to sink candidates no longer matter. ANd if your candidate has a certain populist cool factor, they're teflon. And I know, the same people who are attacking platner nonstop HATE this. I see their comments, and how they DESPISE populism. Well, your boos mean nothing, we see what makes you cheer. people want someone who improves their lives. Platner does, Mill doesn't. Populism is here. And its relevant to both parties. Not everyone wants the democrats to be some boring ### whig party.
With that said, can Platner still lose? Of course he can. My model's 97% chance of him winning is probably overstating it given the sheer unreliability of Maine's polling. But I can't give him less than 84-85% here even correcting for that. I mean, a 14 point swing is just WILD. In reality, I dont think we're safe unless he's up double digits, but he still has one hell of an advantage. And if you think mills is a better candidate, well, you don't know what you're talking about.
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