Thursday, August 25, 2022

Mapping the 6 worldviews from Understanding the Times on political compass

 So, I decided to do an exercise in which I mapped the 6 ideologies from understanding the times to see where they are on a political compass. And this actually turned out to be an interesting exercise that kind of shows some weird flaws/quirks with the political compass, but also some weird quirks with the ideologies. That said, I'd like to get into it.

Christianity (Conservative)- +5/+5

Christianity was moderately auth right. It didn't make extreme authoritarian because to do that you need to be three things simultaneously: authoritarian, religious, and racist. Given conservative Christianity is only two of these things, it got fairly auth. it also was very right wing, being a strong supporter of capitalism.

Obviously, not all Christianity is conservative Christianity. While most forms likely have similar authoritarian tendencies, on economics they vary a lot and I could see a lot of forms of Christianity having varying scores on economics. 

But for the sake of this quiz, the attitudes shared were similar to post 1980 modern conservatism. 

Islam -3/+4

Islam was weird. To some extent, the mild left wing economic attitudes are not that outrageous, but being slightly less authoritarian (or roughly about as) was kind of weird. I generally consider Islam to be a more authoritarian religion than christianity. Christians might wanna impose their views on others, but Islam is a lot more violent about it and more likely to give the death penalty over minor sleights against their religion. But, because they were potentially less authoritarian on things like government spying (probably wouldn't like it as much given the war on terror), they ended up slightly less auth than Christianity. Wait until you get to Marxism-Leninism if you think that's weird.

On economics, I went with them being mild left because a lot of them live in the global south and essentially likely have some attitudes toward social justice on economics, opposing the American military and economic machine, for example. Whereas America is rather far right on the economic scale especially in its international operations, religions like islam and even most non american fundamentalist forms of christianity generally lean more center left, toward say, a form of social democracy. Just thought it was interesting, I expect it to be more center. 

Marxism-Leninism- -10/+3

I feel like I answered this particular iteration of the political compass like a psychopath but I only ended up with +3 on the auth scale. What gives?

Well...remember what I said about needing to be authoritarian, racist, and religious to get a high score? Marxism Leninism is virulently anti religion. So I went very strong on the anti religion sentiment...which made me LESS auth. And Marxism-Leninism is...ideally not racist. Like, marxists in my experience are really hard on racism and hate the concept of it. Although I understand the reality is a lot different in practice. For example, the Han Chinese are extremely racist toward other cultures, and the Russians are known for using ethnic minorities for their more...disposable tasks. Still, on attitudes alone, trying to adhere to the philosophical ideal being not racist made the results more moderate.

You really can't get a high auth score on this test unless you're like full on fascist where you're authoritarian, religious, AND racist. It's actually a flaw because marxism leninism is arguably as authoritarian as fascism is. But because its attitudes are different on two of those three topics, it just didn't go full auth. 

On economics, the 10 is no surprise though. That test was literally made for marxist leninist doctrine to get a perfect left wing score. 

Post Modernism- -8/-5

Post modernism on the other hand, had no issue getting fairly lib. It is a form of "alt lib left", known as "orange lib left" on political compass related forums, as it exists on the spectrum but kind of doesnt fit other surrounding ideologies, as if there should be another axis to describe it. But I would say it is, much like Marxism-Leninism, a bit more authoritarian. Just not in the tradition way. They are kind of like the left wing version of the culture wars, often pushing lib left ideas in weird authoritarian ways, in which if you aren't on board with them you deserve sanctioning. But...political compass doesn't really consider you auth if you arent some combination of normal statist authoritarian, religious, and racist. And given they're not many of those things they got a lot more lib. 

On economics they were very left wing, just not as much so as the Marxists though. 

Secular Humanism- -4/-4

Secular humanism ended up pretty much where I actually am in my results, around -4/-4, maybe just slightly more conservative than me. I did answer a little differently than I would personally answer, recognizing i deviate from the bog standard version in some ways and not wanting to impose my exact views on it, but this led to me just answering 90% of the questions the same anyway. But generally speaking secular humanism was the most moderate worldview overall, being more based on reason and evidence, and that having somewhat of a liberal bias. Generally permissive, generally mildly left wing but not extremely so. 

Cosmic Humanism- -5/-5

Cosmic Humanism was very difficult to place on a traditional compass. I mean, it is a very apolitical ideology. But in trying my best to put my cosmic humanist cap on, I ended up with -5/-5 or so. Understanding the times portrayed it as almost anarchist, but for the sake of the compass it really didn't share significantly different attitudes from post modernism or secular humanism. And on economics, I guess the stereotype for me is some like hippie lady who has fairly left wing views and cares about the environment so it ended up a tad more progressive that way too. 

Discussion

Honestly, I feel like this taught me more about the flaws of the political compass more than the flaws of Understanding the Times. While the left right axis seemed properly calibrated (the only reason the only ideology on the right was Christianity was because Understanding the Times was the only die hard capitalist ideology in the book, with the others being liberal to socialist in practice), the authoritarian axis is wonky. Generally speaking, it seemed very opposed to extremes, where you had to answer extremely psychotically to go more than 5 in either direction. You simply CANT get an extreme auth score unless you're a literal Nazi or fascist. But on the other hand, it's hard to get an extreme lib score too as most people would avoid the kind of extreme statements needed to get that far. I used to think that political compass has a lib bias, but I'm not really sure if it does given even the obvious lib ideologies weren't extreme lib either. 

It was also kind of weird how a lot of the auth attitudes of American Christians aren't much different than Islam or Marxism Leninism, who actually seemed less consistently authoritarian on the compass in some ways. Of course, the test was a measure of attitudes more than policy. Despite Christianity being arguably less authoritarian in my opinion than Marxism Leninism or Islam in practice, it didn't differ significantly from them on the compass and if anything came off as more auth as it seemed a bit closer to the archetype of a fascist than the other ideologies.

Political compass is an interesting test, but this exercise expressed some of its quirks to me. 

Should other worldviews exist?

This is something I've been kind of wondering about for a while, but given this exercise, let's ignore some of the most obvious blind spots in the book: the entire lib right part of the compass, and extreme authoritarianism.

I kind of wondered if maybe white nationalism or fascism really deserved its own ideology separate from Christianity, given the version of Christianity in that book is the kind of American conservative fundamentalist variety associated with the republican party. But, as we know, with the rise of Donald Trump, the alt right has arisen. And that version of conservatism IS authoritarian, religious, AND racist. But it really does seem the big definiing belief of this is racism. Fundamentality Christianity isnt inherently racist as I understand it, and generally believes all humans are god's creation. Individual believers can have deeply racist beliefs as a product of American conservative culture, which always had that undercurrent post 1968, but it was never explicit. The alt right is more explicit. It's a lot like this, if Christianity and secular humanism are two sides of the same coins and existential foes of each other, the alt right's existential foe is postmodernism instead. 

Still, the only meaningful dimension in which the alt right is more extreme is race. It's possible they are a bit more authoritarian too, but honestly, despite conservative Christians' calls for small government, they never practiced those beliefs outside of economics. And given the Bush regime, a lot of the authoritarian tendencies present in the political compass were present back then. So I'm not sure. It's possible you could argue for fascism to be taught as a worldview the way postmodernism is (they are polar opposite ideological foes), but just as secular humanism and postmodernism have a lot of overlap, so do regular conservatism and fascism.

The other worldview I have wondered if it should be added is say, right libertarianism. NONE of the 6 ideologies fit well into that quadrant at all. but when i think about what right libertarianism is...it's ALSO an offshoot of American Christianity, just with less authoritarian attitudes on issues like government overreach and enforcement of social issues. They don't really fall far from the same tree, and many libertarians are still Christians. They just don't agree with government enforcing religion or the actions of the Bush administration. 

So...a lot of the right actually is more similar than it looks like. Many of them are just different variations of the same worldview. Fascism is a more authoritarian alternative to it, and libertarianism is a more libertarian alternative to it. 

Alternatively, a lot of right libertarians are also atheists and operate off of a secular humanist framework. Take objectivism which was pushed by atheist Ayn Rand. So some secularists can end up being right libertarians too. Right libertarianism isn't really its own ideology as much as it seems to be where conservative Christianity and secular humanism meet. The right wing secularists like the economic positions of the conservative worldview, and the libertarian Christians like the libertarianism of secular humanism. It's kind of a weird blending of the two worldviews rather than a unique worldview itself. 

The same can be said of say, left wing anarchism, which might have a weird blending of marxist, secular, and postmodern worldviews. 

Like, despite the positions expressed on the compass here, the varying worldviews can exist on a spectrum. Christianity (conservatism) can be more authoritarian or libertarian, or even more left wing, as left wing Christians exist outside of American fundamentalist Christianity. Islam likely can do the same, although it likely is a relatively auth center religion overall. Marxism Leninism can get even more auth if it embraces racism (see: China) or conservative attitudes on social issues associated with religion for example. Secular humanism can vary widely. A lot of lefties are likely mixes of humanism, marxism leninism, and postmodernism these days. A lot of postmodernists are also marxists. Many are humanists. On the flip side, as I said, secularists can end up finding their ways onto the right wing of the spectrum instead. perhaps applying the worldviews to the political compass is kind of sloppy because there are so many possible variants that none of them necessarily agree. 

 Conclusion

Anyway, I just thought this would be a nice exercise. Idk if I'll do this again with another compass like sapply, but I doubt it. Part of the issues with this was the political compass itself, but part of it was also the worldviews not necessarily having solid views on a lot of subjects at hand.

Wednesday, August 24, 2022

Death Panels? Discussing euthanasia in Canada's healthcare system

 So, I came across a fairly alarmist post written by some right wingers about euthanasia in Canada's healthcare system. However, I did some research into it and found an AP link backing up the claims made by the post. Basically, it looks like Canada is having a problem with euthanasia. They seem to be recommending that people kill themselves if they're too much of a drain on the healthcare system, with one person being shamed for costing the state $1500 a day for being kept alive. Other people were recommended suicide for non terminal conditions like PTSD and hearing loss. Back in my conservative days, I'd be screaming death panels over this, but I did feel like this deserves more nuanced consideration given my support of universal healthcare.

It's a common problem in some state run healthcare systems like Canada's and the UK's that they are underfunded and often skimp on treatment as a result. And conservatives often do this to argue against universal healthcare systems. But in a lot of cases it's the conservatives' own doing, they intentionally try to undermine the healthcare system and push for privatization. But barring that, it shouldn't be a huge issue. Just fund your healthcare systems properly and don't intentionally sabotage them.

Beyond that, that isn't the core issue here. As the article states, there are other countries with universal healthcare systems, but they don't have this issue. The thing is, they have more strict standards associated with euthanasia, where only doctors can suggest it, and only after all other options are exhausted. Moreover, many are forbidden from mentioning it as a treatment option, the person has to request it.

This is fair. While euthanasia in Canada is technically voluntary, the core issue here is consent to the procedure seems to be pressured by doctors, nurses, etc. They lack proper ethics around it, leading to weird situations like people with PTSD and hearing loss being recommended suicide as a "treatment option". So, it seems, at the very least, Canada needs to adopt much stricter restrictions on the option. This isn't so much a universal healthcare problem as it is a lack of ethics option. 

Obviously, the purpose of the healthcare system is to help people, and to do no harm. Death should only be an option when all other options are exhausted, and costs should largely be kept out of it. While there are fringe situations that conservatives make a big deal on where for example, some healthcare systems might refuse to keep dying babies with severe birth defects alives when there's no real helping them, generally speaking, they do a good job. These systems work on a triage system where people who need help get it when they need it and less severe problems can wait. Wait times and denial of treatment are often blown up as problems by conservatives, but this seems largely overstated.

By the way, we have healthcare rationing in the US too. It's called 40 million people not having healthcare, and 45000 people dying every year unnecessarily. So we ration care too, we just do it on the basis of cost. And if you don't think insurance people allow people to die to save money, you got another thing coming

So is this necessarily a problem with universal healthcare systems? not really. This is a problem with poor ethics surrounding legalized euthanasia. Other societies with universal healthcare do not have these issues, because their ethics surrounding the option are much stricter. 

This actually makes me give pause to the idea of assisted suicide, which is ironic given i just took all of those political quizzes and came out in favor of the concept. I still would say I support it, but only for terminally ill patients, and only with strict ethics and regulations surrounding it. I'm fine with restricting "freedom" if people are coerced or pressured into doing something that they otherwise wouldn't do or shouldn't do. 

Bare Minimum Biden strikes again (student loan debt)

 So, I found a new term for Joe Biden I like. Kyle Kulinski discussed this topic too, and he called him "Bare Minimum Biden." And yes, that's accurate for this. Anyway, as you can tell by the link, Biden decided to forgive $10,000 in student loan debt. 

While this is better than nothing, my stance on this is gonna be "la dee freaking da." Really, this is pathetic. It's literally the bare minimum to be able to say you did something, while not actually doing much of consequence. It's typical democratic party politics. As I said, the democrats are mostly a conservative party. They support the status quo, and only support minor shifts to it at most. And this is after the Bernie Sanders wing twists their arm. So, Biden is doing the same old democratic shuffle of trying to do something to appease left wing voters, while doing as little as possible so he can go to his stakeholders and moderate voters and say he did damage control. That's what this is, damage control. Again, doing something to get progressive voters off of his back, but simultaneously doing as little as possible. 

I want to remind people what other alternatives were on the table. Bernie wanted to forgive all of it, which is my preferred approach. Warren wanted to forgive $50k, which is still a band aid, but a much bigger band aid. He could have moved to remove all interest from student loans. That would knock down the totals a lot more than $10k for some people. He could have had universal IBR with no tax bomb, which is what my compromise option would look like. 

Any of these, or any combinations of these, would be more progressive, and more helpful, than this. This is a joke. Again, it's doing the bare minimum to say they did something, while actually preserving the status quo as much as humanly possible. It's maddening, but this is what the centrist wing of the democratic party likes to do. They did it with BBB too. We literally got 1/5th of that in monetary value and just got a bunch of tax credits. And, admittedly, that ain't Biden's fault. I'll given Biden credit for trying there. But congress stonewalled him. But THIS?! Biden theoretically has the ability to forgive student debt by the stroke of a pen. I've seen some people argue the other way too, claiming he doesn't have the authority, but I think if he can get away with $10k, why not all of it? 

Admittedly, this doesn't solve the problem. More people will go to college, they'll get more student debt, and we really should have free college. Which brings me to another issue. Much like Biden's free college plan, this has a means test on it, only forgiving debt for people under $125k. I mean, too be fair, if you make $125k+, you dont need help, but it's the principle of the thing. Why not just make college free? Why carve out all of these exceptions, and limitations, and make it so darned complicated. Democrats have a pathological obsession with means testing everything, because they don't believe in universal programs. They just believe in doing the bare minimum for those they deem worthy of help. It's infuriating.

That said, yeah, I think Bare Minimum Biden is a good name for him. It really sums up the philosophy of the centrist wing of the democratic party.

I mean, I admit, I've been getting more flexible, I've been trying to offer some more moderate alternatives to Bernie proposals on some issues. I can get behind a robust public option on healthcare. On student debt forgiveness, I laid out my alternatives above. I don't support a green new deal and instead support a more moderte framework. But COME ON, the dems can't even meet those standards. It's freaking pathetic. My moderate compromise options still are significantly more progressive than anything the democrats seem to want to actually do. Sure, Harris may have proposed a public option similar to my own. And Biden's Build Back Better is one of the two frameworks I actively endorse for climate change (the other being Yang's). But they don't enact such things. Harris' plan was lost to the dustbins of history and Biden won the narrative, then didn't even do THAT. Biden also failed to pass Build Back Better, although he had some help from "moderates" in his own party on that one. 

It's like these people don't want people to have nice things, and are doing the bare minimum to say they did SOMETHING to get them off of their back. It's pathetic. 

Well, I'm not gonna stop pushing for actual ideas that actively make peoples' lives better. And I'm not gonna settle for this luke warm garbage. 

EDIT: I looked more into it and Biden's plan may have been more progressive than first thought. It appears he is forgiving up to $20k for Pell grant borrowers, is making IBR a bit more progressive, and is modifying how interest accrues as well.

Still, this is a bunch of band aids that doesn't go far enough so I maintain my current position otherwise. I just acknowledge this isn't as pathetic as I thought.

Howie Hawkins' graphic on NIT being better than UBI is cringe

 So, Howie Hawkins had a graphic on facebook (rehosted on imgur) claiming that the NIT is better than UBI. 

The argument presented was thus:

The Negative Income Tax is an extension of the progressive tax system to those with low incomes who receive monthly payments from the IRS instead of paying taxes to it. Just as a higher income taxpayers pay increasingly higher rates as their income goes up, a higher tax rate, those below the poverty line would pay an increasingly negative tax rate--ie, the IRS would pay them--as their income goes down.

We prefer the NIT because it involves less transfer of money back and forth from the government to the people and back than a Universal Basic Income.

Honestly, there's a lot I can say on this topic, but let's get the obvious out of the way.

Howie Hawkins and I, despite our similar goals, have very different philosophies with how to get there. And we have different priorities among our goals. Howie Hawkins signature policy is a green new deal, and not just any green new deal, but the "original" green new deal. He often portrays himself as the original green new dealer. His Green New Deal is an extremely expensive program, and there is NO WAY that you can fund a UBI AND a GND on that scale at the same time. So he would prefer to spend $2.75 trillion a year on a green new deal, and spend $200 billion on his NIT plan.

Me, I'm the opposite. I am a UBI advocate first and foremost, and have a very libertarian ideology defending the concept. For me, UBI is intended not just to alleviate poverty, but give people true freedom to act as a free agent within our market system choosing whether and how much to work, and to live on their own terms. And I tend to be very unwilling to compromise on UBI. BUT, this means that when it comes to a climate plan, I'd be more inclined to support a more moderate framework like Biden's Build Back Better or Yang's climate plan. For me, solving climate change isn't sexy, and I don't romanticize the green new deal or the underlying jobs program, it's just what needs to be done. I would rather just pursue the policies that get the greatest impact for the lowest costs, and save the money for my UBI. 

Howie CANNOT fund a proper UBI on top of his green new deal. I CANNOT fund a proper green new deal on top of my UBI, so let's not ignore that his first and foremost priority in pursuing the NIT...is to save money. Just as my goal on climate bill is to get the most impact for the least amount of money.

But here's the difference. I will plainly admit this compromise. A green new deal might address climate change more aggressively. Proponents like Hawkins, Sanders, and Warren often try to hit the IPCC's 2050 goals by 2030, and run circles around them by 2050. Whereas I'm more likely to target the IPCC's goals directly. These aggressive plans raise costs by a factor of about 10, meaning that a more moderate plan can still be compliant with IPCC's actual goals and save up to 90% of costs vs a GND. 

Should we go more nuts on solving climate? Well, you can make a case for it. But I find that the left chooses this goal because ideologically, their answer to the current problems with the economy comes in the form of a jobs program. These programs are intended to create tens of millions of jobs, putting people to work and making them look like heroes for making work. We live in a society where the gospel of jobs receives little to no opposition and criticism, and anyone daring question it doesn't survive very long in politics. So the answer to work not paying or there not being enough work available is we need more of it.

I honestly don't think climate the huge goal for them, it's the pretext, because they often misrepresent the IPCC's goals and imply the planet is doomed if we DON'T do this. They capitalize on an apparent emergency in order to push an agenda.

And I'm not saying climate change isn't a problem. I'm NOT a climate denier. BUT, the logic the green new deal and the 2030 deadline the left throws around is based on IPCC guidelines to avoid the worst case scenario for climate change. And those guidelines are misrepresented and are framed in a way to make the situation more dire than it is. Climate change is a serious problem. And we shouldn't screw around with it. But should we really be spending 10x the amount of resources to overshoot the goals that serve as a pretext for this green new deal anyway? The reason the left clings to it is because they believe in the gospel of jobs and this is their solution to our current economic plight.

And as a result, many on the left have become hostile to UBI. Many in, for example, Bernie's camp, call it a right wing trojan horse, and express hostility to it, even pushing jobist mantras about how people wanna work to push their programs over a UBI. UBI is an ideological threat to the left, as it competes directly with their vision for the country, so most leftists have come to reject it, and make bad faith arguments against it because it doesn't serve their labor obsessed ideology. It's like they're making excuses for why they don't want it, but it ultimately comes down to ideology.

Hawkins is a bit more friendly toward it, but he honestly is taking the cheap way out with it. Yes, an NIT in theory does the same thing as a UBI. But...there are differences, and I really question if an NIT should be a UBI at all. 

First of all, NITs have the potential to be less universal. To get an NIT, you must file a tax return. This might exclude people who don't have income to declare. You see, once you put it behind some form of bureaucracy that forces people to actively seek it out, you're actually excluding people by default. And if people who don't pay taxes because they dont have income are ineligible for it, well, you just added a work requirement. Would I put it past Howie to add a work requirement like that? Not really. Because he wants workers for his green new deal scheme. And even if he didn't future administrations would easily add restrictions.

Second of all, it would be easier for it to be sabotaged in other ways. Look at the ill fated Child Tax Credit Biden tried to pass. Compare it to say, social security. Social security, once it was passed, became a third rail of politics. No one DARED touch it. And social security has still survived 40 years of right wing assaults from Reagan on. Because the right can only try to subtly sabotage it. They might raid the trust fund, or raise retirement ages, or have caps on the payroll taxes, hoping to kill it in a few more decades, but they can't directly attack it. Because it's seen as an entitlement and millions would riot if they cut it. Much like the GOP is learning on abortion, touching that would be political suicide and no one would mess with that.

But the child tax credit? Poof. Gone. Suddenly the funding for it disappeared...and it disappeared too. And while people like me, and my more mainstream political equivalents who actively support the democratic party will bluster at how bad Joe Manchin is for screwing over families with it, well, there isn't much we can do about it. 

But that's the power of a UBI vs an NIT. an NIT is a lot more open to political attack and repeal. A UBI isn't. A UBI would be a new third rail no one would dare touch. It would be so easy for the GOP or even a centrist dem like the clintons (remember welfare reform?) to sabotage and undermine a UBI. Drug test it, add work requirements. Make it more limited over time. We have the EITC. We had the child tax credit, that crap might help but it also fails many others. UBI is intended to replace much of the safety net. NIT is just a poor man's version of the idea. 

I get how it's attractive fiscally to say, yeah, NIT means less money back and forth. I've seen it argued that way too. But I think all that redundancy in UBI is what makes it great. It's what makes it truly universal, and not another hare brained means tested idea that can be undermined by the powers that be. NIT is more bureaucratic and gives more power to those who would wish to undermine it, whereas UBI is more expensive and has a lot of redundant transfers, but it would be harder to touch.

Also, just to discuss tax rates. Under my UBI, I would have a flat tax of roughly 18% to pay for it. And I would ideally do this via a payroll tax. So this crap is deducted from your paycheck as you go. originally I actually supported reforming the entire tax system to a flat tax this way, but i considered it too ambitious, so I backed off. Now I support this flat tax on top of the existing tax system, pushing taxes on the rich up to around 65%, with most people paying closer to 40% with other taxes.

This is progressive, and progressives always claim to like "progressive taxes". But for some reason the same crowd that screeches that Yang's 10% VAT is unjust are fine with a bureaucratic NIT wanting 30-50% without even considering OTHER taxes. Seriously, if anything is regressive, it's a VAT. Because the marginal tax rate on those getting this "negative income tax" is around 50% of every dollar earned. Whereas once you get above the break even point suddenly you drop to what, like 20-30%? Seriously. This is how much of a joke an NIT is. It's actually way more regressive than any actual UBI plan and taxes the poor at way higher rates. But it gets a pass because of weird framing issues these guys do. 

Another advantage to UBI...it's more flexible. Okay, so say you have a job, it pays well, and then you lose it. How does you getting your NIT work? Are previous contributions for that year counted against you? Are you given a loan you'll have to pay back at tax time? With UBI, you just get the same check you always do. With NIT....well, suddenly you're gonna be filling out forms, or calling some tax office and being put on hold for an hour until someone can process your claim, and then there's a period of time where you have no income before the first check comes in, and yeah, what a joke is this?

I really respect Yang, for example, when he pushes for "modern and effective governance". The idea of simplifying the tax system. of making the system automated where your taxes are done for you. I'm for that too. And a huge reason I like UBI is because we CAN automate this crap. We can make the tax system simpler. So you dont have to fill out forms, and visit government offices, and be put on hold when you call on the phone, and you dont have to navigate the bureaucratic BS to get your money. You just...get your money. 

I get it. Hawkins is a green new dealer who took the easy way out on UBI. I appreciate that he has SOMETHING. But let's not pretend for one minute that NIT is better. NIT is a poor man's UBI. It's a version of UBI with all of the problems with welfare and tax credits and blah blah blah. Rather than having a system that just guarantees an income, it's a system that make you jump through hoops to get your money. And might even put requirements in it to make it less than universal. It's the inferior option. Just like, to a green new dealer, the more moderate climate plans I support are the inferior option. 

And I get it, we have different priorities. I'm not a proponent of a full on green new deal. I'd rather take the cheaper route to meet the requirements we need to meet, but to do so efficiently and with the least money possible. I don't envision tens of millions of people doing construction work and stuff building his speed rail and retrofitting every building in the country. Rather, I'd rather give people a UBI, and let people choose. 

But the NIT is just a poor man's UBI. It's the inferior option. It's the cheap way out on THAT plan, and the cost is that it would lead to an inferior version of the idea that would be potentially less universal, more open to sabotage, and a bigger pain in the neck to deal with. While I would take it if offered, it's the obviously inferior version of the program and we shouldn't pretend it isn't.

2022 forecast 8/24

 Okay, so, it's been almost 2 months since my last forecast, and it'll probably be 2 months until the next one (which will be the final one), so it's a perfect time to do a forecast now.  

Senate

So now we have 8 races to look at with Ohio in the ring. Both parties have 46 safe states. May the best party win

StateMarginSD% Dem win% GOP winDem senators if dem winGOP senators if GOP win
Arizona
Kelly +8.0%
-2.00
97.7%
2.3%
47
54
PennsylvaniaFetterman +7.5%-1.88
97.0%
3.0%
48
53
Wisconsin
Barnes +5.5%
-1.38
91.6%
8.4%
49
52
Georgia
Warnock +4.4%
-1.10
86.4%
13.6%
50
51
New Hampshire
Hassan +4.0%
-1.00
84.1%
15.9%
51
50
Nevada
Cortez Masto +2.3%
-0.58
71.9%
28.1%
52
49
North Carolina
Budd +2.8%
+0.70
24.2%
75.8%
53
48
Ohio
Vance +3.7%
+0.93
17.6%
82.4%
54
47

All in all, the democrats have strengthened their hold on the senate. Abortion and Donald Trump's antics are having more of an impact than inflation is it seems. I have the democrats at an 86% chance of winning the senate, with the GOP having only a 14% chance. That's great for the dems, bad for the GOP.

House

As I said, I don't do house forecasts because there's too many races and not enough polling data. But RCP has the GOP at 222 safe seats and the democrats at 181. Given they need 218 seats for the majority, it's over before it started. Most of the time you're in a "lean" category on RCP you're basically at an 8%+ polling average. Which means it's a foregone conclusion and the GOP has likely a 98%+ chance of winning the house, and the dems only have a <2% chance of winning. Yep, we're screwed. Nothing more to see here. Unless there's a massive systemic error here making this way more red than it should be, the house is a lost cause for democrats this election cycle. 

Governors

Okay, so now we're up to 10 governor races to look at.

StatesWinner/MarginSD% Dem Win% GOP Win
Michigan
Whitmer + 6.5%
-1.63
94.8%
5.2%
Pennsylvania
Shapiro +5.2%
-1.30
90.3%
9.7%
Maine
Mills +3.5%
-0.88
81.1%
18.9%
Minnesota
Walz +3.5%
-0.88
81.1%
18.9%
New Mexico
Lujan Grisham +3.5%
-0.88
88.1%
18.9%
Arizona
Hobbs +3.0%
-0.75
77.3%
22.7%
Wisconsin
Evers +2.5%
-0.63
74.6%
26.4%
Nevada
Sisolak +1.7%
-0.43
66.6%
33.4%
Kansas
Schmidt +4%
+1.00
15.9%
84.1%
Georgia
Kemp +4.2%
+1.05
14.6%
85.4%

Democrats are still dominating but it's tightening in some. The insane polling whitmer had last time is normalizing at a more realistic level. Kansas is now in place. My first reaction was "seriously"? I know there were some polls in Kansas suggesting it would be in play in the presidential and then it went like +12 Trump or something. But then again Kansas is PISSED about the abortion thing. So it could be in play actually. 

Banning abortion was really a terrible move for the GOP electorally. They were looking at a historical red wave, and now the democrats are coming out swinging as the swing voters are turned off. The thing is a lot of America is actually fairly socially progressive, but they are so like I am. They hate the woke crap, but on the issues, they'll actually trend left. And while they might not focus a lot on social issues, when those issues come under attack in a real way, they'll suddenly become a lot more blue than they would otherwise be. 

The thing is, these issues dont affect a ton of people and arent at the forefront of peoples' minds, but they largely do support them. Democrats kind of took them for granted in 2016 with the whole Hillary holding them hostage to bully people into supporting her thing. But now that her predictions ended up happening, yeah, it's creating a blue wave that's really bruising and bloodying the GOP here.

This should be THE election for them. It's their time in the cycle to shine, much like 2010 and 2014. Instead they're just...failing. Hard. 

Honestly, it looks like this blue wave is sustaining itself. This won't be my last forecast before the election, I plan to look at it again in late October or early November again, but given my first prediction was in June, we're now at half time, and the democrats are sustaining their leads. They still look like they're gonna lose the house in an apocalyptic way, but they should hold on to most senate positions and governorships to the point they should gain ground if anything.

So, looks like we're going toward split government in 2022, with the GOP exploiting the massive house districts with their rural populations, but losing actual statewide elections.

Taking isidewith quiz (2022 edition)

 So I have results saved from other times but for the purposes of this blog, I'm gonna take a fresh one. See what my results will be.This one might be long. But going over it I don't think it's worse than the previous 8values quiz.Without further ado:

Should the President be able to authorize military force against Al-Qaeda without Congressional approval?

 In limited contexts, sure. presidents should have the ability to act unilaterally for short periods of time, but congress should authorize more lengthy engagements. 

I'm going to say yes.

And the issue is not important at all to me.

Should the US assassinate suspected terrorists in foreign countries?

Obviously it depends on the amount of evidence and the threat level involved. I'm going with the answer that only if there is undeniable evidence they are planning to attack our country.

Once again, not important.

Should funding for local police departments be redirected to social and community based programs?

Yeah, I'm for defunding the police and replacing some of its functions with more friendly social services, sure.

Less important.

Should police departments be allowed to use military grade equipment?

Eh....in limited context. I dont think all police should be militarized and I would restrict it but specialized units should maintain it, yes.

Less important.

Should convicted criminals have the right to vote?

Yes. They shouldn't be denied that right.

Moderate importance, since it's a civil rights issue.

Do you support qualified immunity for police officers?

This is gonna come off as unpopular for the left, but yes, I do. I only think they should be liable under gross actions of malpractice.

Less important.

Should non-violent prisoners be released from jail in order to reduce overcrowding?

Yes, and a lot of them shouldn't even be locked up in the first place. End the war on drugs.

Moderate importance.

Should drug traffickers receive the death penalty?

No, what authoritarian BS is this?

Moderate importance.

Should prisons ban the use of solitary confinement for juveniles?

I guess? It seems cruel but I don't have a solid stance on this.

Less important.

Do you support limiting police unions collective bargaining power for cases involving misconduct?

Everyone deserves a union, even police. So...no. Even though I have misgivings on this from a civil rights perspective.

Moderate importance.

Do you support mandatory minimum prison sentences for people charged with drug possession?

Heck no, and stop throwing people in jail for drug possession. Moderate importance.

Should police officers be required to wear body cameras?

Yes. To ensure no misconduct occurs.

Moderate importance.

Should the government hire private companies to run prisons?

No. It just leads to slavery for prisoners and incentivizes arresting people. Moderate importance.

Should employers be required to pay men and women the same salary for the same job?

Yeah equal pay for equal work seems fair.

Moderate importance.

Should the government prevent “mega mergers” of corporations that could potentially control a large percentage of market share within its industry?

 Absolutely, cant have a free market if a few corporations control everything.

Moderate importance.

Should the U.S. raise taxes on the rich?

As I keep saying tax them at laffer curve peak rates. 

High importance.

Should the government raise the federal minimum wage?

Yeah. Given we don't have a UBI, $15-18 an hour sounds good.

High importance.

Do you support a universal basic income program?

Uh, hello? This is literally my top priority.

Maximum importance.

Should welfare recipients be tested for drugs?

No, and we should give people a UBI.

Given the relationship to UBI, max importance.

Should the U.S. raise or lower the tax rate for corporations?

Reise Reise tax rates reise!

Yes.

High importance.

Should there be fewer or more restrictions on current welfare benefits

 None, and we should have a UBI.

Max importance.

Do you believe labor unions help or hurt the economy?

 I'm going with help, but ban their ability to do political donations. I think unions in politics lead to corruption and act similarly to corporations. 

High importance.

Should the government increase the tax rate on profits earned from the sale of stocks, bonds, and real estate?

Yes, and set it at laffer curve peak rates.

High importance.

Should the government make cuts to public spending in order to reduce the national debt?

No, governments should tax the rich to reduce the national debt.

High importance.

Should businesses be required to provide paid leave for full-time employees during the birth of a child or sick family member?

Yes. Absolutely.

High importance.

Should the current estate tax rate be decreased?

No, should be raised if anything.

High importance.

Should the government require businesses to pay salaried employees, making up to $46k/year, time-and-a-half for overtime hours?

Yes, it's absolutely ridiculous that managers in like Wendys can make $23k a year and be worked like a dog. 

High importance.

Should the government use economic stimulus to aid the country during times of recession?

Yes. And anyone suggesting otherwise is economically illiterate.

Moderate importance.

Should the government break up Amazon, Facebook and Google?

Eh, I'd split up their respective holdings but otherwise no (think oculus, youtube, etc.). (Yes for the sake of this question).

Not important.

Should the U.S. continue to participate in the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA)?

Nah, let's stop that giant sucking sound as Ross Perot would say. 

Low importance.

Should pension plans for federal, state, and local government workers be transitioned into privately managed accounts?

No, sounds like a way to screw over workers.

Moderate importance.

Should homeless individuals, that have refused available shelter or housing, be allowed to sleep or encamp on public property?

Yes, and create more social programs to provide free food, clothing and medicine.

And also a UBI. 

High importance given the ability to advocate for more universal programs.

Should the government require children to be vaccinated for preventable diseases?

Yes. Anti vaxxers are committing child abuse against their kids. 

High importance.

Do you support the use of nuclear energy?

Yes, and I believe it's one of those things we should be using to get off of fossil fuels to prevent climate change.

High importance.

Should producers be required to label genetically engineered foods (GMOs)?

No, and we shouldnt pander to the weirdos who don't want "chemicals" in their food. Darn dihydrogen monoxide (water). 

Not important though.

Should the government fund space travel?

No, i'd rather focus on problems on THIS planet.

Low importance.

Do you support affirmative action programs?

No, we should focus more on improving working conditions and standard of living for everyone than playing this game of making person A better off at the expense of person B. Those politics are extremely divisive and offputting. 

Low importance.

Should there be more restrictions on the current process of purchasing a gun?

Yes, but we shouldn't go crazy about it.
 
Low importance.

Should teachers be allowed to carry guns at school?

No, and we should stop letting republicans suggest insane ideas.

Low importance.

Should victims of gun violence be allowed to sue firearms dealers and manufacturers?

No, and this is an insane idea the left came up with that shouldn't be taken seriously either.

Low importance.

Should local police increase surveillance and patrol of Muslim neighborhoods?

No, this is blatantly racist. 

Low importance.

Are you in favor of decriminalizing drug use?

Yes. 

Moderate importance.

Should it be illegal to burn the American flag?

No, this is a free speech issue.

Moderate importance.

Should people on the “no-fly list” be banned from purchasing guns and ammunition?

I'm gonna go with: "Yes, but not until the no-fly list screening process is improved for accuracy and includes due process." 

I mean, if they shouldnt fly on a plane they shouldnt buy guns. 

BUT....there should be due process to the idea.

Low importance.

Should the Supreme Court be reformed to include more seats and term limits on judges?

Yes, but only term limits.
 
Moderate importance.

Do you support the Patriot Act?

No, it was a blatant violation of civil liberties.

Moderate importance.

Should the government be allowed to seize private property, with reasonable compensation, for public or civic use?

You mean eminent domain?

Yes. But to be more specific I'm going with this option: "Yes, as long as landowners are fairly compensated and the projects will benefit the community"
 
Low importance

Should the U.S. government grant immunity to Edward Snowden?

Yes, and he should be protected as a whistleblower.
 
No importance

Should social media companies ban political advertising?

I don't really have an opinion on this. Gonna default to no but make it have no importance.

Should members of Congress be allowed to trade stocks while serving in office?

No, it allowed corruption.

Moderate importance.

Should the military upgrade Air Force One?

No, what's wrong with AF1 as it is?

No importance.

Should internet service providers be allowed to speed up access to popular websites (that pay higher rates) at the expense of slowing down access to less popular websites (that pay lower rates)?

No. And impose net neutrality.

High importance.

Should there be term limits set for members of Congress?

Yes. It's needed to solve the incumbency problem.

Moderate importance.

Should the government regulate social media sites, as a means to prevent fake news and misinformation?

No, and that strikes me as extremely authoritarian.

High importance.

Should illegal immigrants have access to government-subsidized healthcare?

No. In order to make my calls for universal safety nets work, I need to take a stronger stance against immigration. 

Moderate importance

Should the U.S. build a wall along the southern border?

No. A wall is a monument to our racism and doesn't do much.

Not important.

Should undocumented immigrants be offered in-state tuition rates at public colleges within their residing state?

No, undocumented immigrants shouldn't get anything.

Moderate importance.

Should children of illegal immigrants be granted legal citizenship?

Via the whole birthright citizenship thing? No. But it'll never happen because it'll require a constitutional amendment to stop. Low importance.

Should local law enforcement be allowed to detain illegal immigrants for minor crimes and transfer them to federal immigration authorities?

 No they should focus on deporting criminals. 

Low importance.

Should sanctuary cities receive federal funding?

Yeah. I'm gonna be honest, I dont care much about deporting illegals and the like either way.

Low importance.

Should Muslim immigrants be banned from entering the country until the government improves its ability to screen out potential terrorists?

No. Seems racist and largely unnecessary.

Low importance.

Should working illegal immigrants be given temporary amnesty?

"Yes, create a simple path to citizenship for immigrants with no criminal record"
 
Low importance.

Should immigrants be required to learn English?

Yeah they should learn English and adapt to our culture.

Moderate importance.

Should immigrants be required to pass a citizenship test to demonstrate a basic understanding of our country’s language, history, and government?

To become citizens and get access to those sweet sweet safety nets I'm for, sure.

Otherwise, not really. 

So I'm going with no.

No importance.

Should the US increase or decrease the amount of temporary work visas given to high-skilled immigrant workers?

Decrease. Importing them in is about lowering wages.

Moderate importance.

Should the U.S. increase restrictions on its current border security policy?

No. Im for the status quo.

Low importance.

Should immigrants to the United States be allowed to hold dual citizenship status?

I dont see why not.

Not important.

Should immigrants be deported if they commit a serious crime?

Absolutely.

Moderate importance.

Should there be a temporary ban on all immigration into the United States?

No, and I don't see any reason why we should. 
 
Low importance.

Do you support the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (Obamacare)?

 "Yes, but a mandatory single payer system would be even better"

Max importance.

Should the government require employees of large businesses to be vaccinated from COVID?

Yes, and screw anti vaxxers' feelings on the subject. 

High importance.

Should the federal government increase funding of health care for low income individuals (Medicaid)?

"Yes, but I prefer switching to a single payer healthcare system"

Max importance.

Should the government fund the World Health Organization?

Yes. 

Less important.

Do you support a single-payer healthcare system?

Yes. 

Max importance obviously.

Should people be required to work in order to receive Medicaid?

No, in line with my single payer idea.
 
Max importance obviously.

Do you support the legalization of Marijuana?

 Yes. 

Somewhat important.

Should cities open drug “safe havens” where people who are addicted to illegal drugs can use them under the supervision of medical professionals?

Yes, it prevents people from ODing.

Low importance.

Should there be more or less privatization of veterans’ healthcare?

Less, we should have a single payer system.

Max importance.

Should the government regulate the prices of life-saving drugs?

"Yes, and we should socialize medicine and healthcare"
 
SINGLE PAYER BABY!
 
Max importance.

Should the federal government be allowed to negotiate drug prices for Medicare?

Yes, and we should have a single payer monopsony to reduce prices overall.

Max importance.

Should private businesses have the right to ask customers for their vaccination status? 

Yes, and screw anti vaxxers feelings.

High importance.

Should health insurers be allowed to deny coverage to individuals who have a pre-existing condition?

No, and we should have single payer.

Max importance.

Should the government increase funding for mental health research and treatment?

Yes.

Somewhat important.

Should the government increase spending on public transportation?

Yeah. I know I kind of criticize the green new dealers a bit but we should have decent public transportation honestly.

Somewhat important.

Should critical race theory be taught in K-12 education?

Eh, I'm going with this one:

"Yes, but not until they are teenagers"
 
I mean, we shouldn't be anti CRT. It's a valid theory, but it should be taught primarily at high school level and in such a way to inform and educate rather than to indoctrinate. SJWs wanna brainwash people with this stuff. Some of the other yes options were things like "Yes, and also add Intersectionality and the 1619 Project to the curriculum" and "Yes, we cannot end racism until we acknowledge that our institutions, laws, and history are inherently racist". Those things aren't education, that's BRAINWASHING. They're trying to indoctrinate kids, not inform them.
 
For me, its a fine line. I'm fine with informing and educating kids, but not trying to radicalize them into a specific political ideology. 
 
Somewhat important.

Should the federal government pay for tuition at four-year colleges and universities?

 Yes. Absolutely. Priority #3. Max importance.

Do you support increasing taxes for the rich in order to reduce interest rates for student loans?

Tax the ultra rich and forgive student loans like Bernie wants to do.
 
For reference I'm actually clicking: "Yes, and increase government funding so every student receives a free college education"
 
Max importance.

Should the federal government fund Universal preschool?

Yes, but i dont emphasize it since I see the gung ho proponents as wanting to indoctrinate kids into the workforce even earlier and use school as a glorified daycare so parents can work.
 
Somewhat important.

Do you support Common Core national standards?

Yes, but I don't care.

Not important.

Do you support charter schools?

No, and they're a republican trojan horse to undermine the public school system.

Moderate importance.

Should the government decriminalize school truancy?

Yes, jailing parents because their kids stop going to school when they're too busy working is dumb and inhumane. 

Low importance.

Should the government provide financial aid to families affected by COVID related school closures?

I guess. 

Not important.

Should the government offer students a voucher that they can use to attend private schools?

No, this is what I was saying about republican trojan horse.

Somewhat important.

Should the government increase or decrease military spending?

Decrease. We could decrease it by 25% and still spend twice as much as China.

More important.

Should the U.S. accept refugees from Syria?

Yes and Americans should stop being so racist.

Less important.

Should foreign terrorism suspects be given constitutional rights?

Yes. They should be treated fairly as much as possible as we would anyone else.

Somewhat important.

Should the military be allowed to use enhanced interrogation techniques, such as waterboarding, to gain information from suspected terrorists?

No, it doesn't work and it's inhumane.

Somewhat important.

Should the US increase or decrease foreign aid spending?

Keep the same amount.

Low importance.

Should the U.S. continue to support Israel?

Yes, for geopolitical reasons.

Low importance.

Should every 18 year old citizen be required to provide at least one year of military service?

Heck no, that's slavery to me.

Max importance.

Should the U.S. remain in the United Nations?

Yes.

Somewhat important.

Should the military fly drones over foreign countries to gain intelligence and kill suspected terrorists?

Intelligence, yes, killing terrorists, no, not unless they're completely sure.

Somewhat important.

Do you support President Obama’s move to lift the trade and travel embargo on Cuba?

Yes, its a cold era policy that's no longer relevant.

Not important.

Should Jerusalem be recognized as the capital of Israel?

Yes, but I don't care about Israel much one way or another.

not important.

Should the U.S. remain in NATO?

Yes, and I think the Russian invasion of Ukraine demonstrated NATO's relevance in the 21st century.

Somewhat important.

Should the U.S. defend other NATO countries that maintain low military defense budgets relative to their GDP?

Yes, while I agree with Trump's desire to make other countries meet their requirements, I really thought his approach of airing those grievances publicly were dumb and harmful to international discourse though. 

Somewhat important.

Should the U.S. continue NSA surveillance of its allies?

Allies? Only with permission. 

I'm gonna go with no.

Not important.

Should the government cancel production of the F-35 fighter?

Yes, it seems to be a massive waste.

Less important.

Should the World Bank and International Monetary Fund provide financial aid to the Taliban government in Afghanistan?

No, we gave them their country back, let's not give them financial aid too.

Less important.

Should the U.S. sell military weapons to India in order to counter Chinese and Russian influence?

Eh, Im actually gonna go with yes on this one. Because they seemed awfully unwilling to speak out against Russia due to their trade relations with them. 

Not important though.

Should the U.S. go to war with Iran?

No and this is a stupid and dangerous idea. 

High importance.

Should the government continue to fund Planned Parenthood?

Yes.

More important.

What is your stance on abortion?

Pro choice as it gets.

More important.

Do you support the legalization of same sex marriage?

Yes.

Somewhat important.

Should transgender athletes be allowed to compete against athletes that differ from their assigned sex at birth?

I don't have a solid opinion, so I went with this:

"Yes, but only if their hormone levels are equivalent to those in the gender category in which they compete"
 
Either way, I don't care. Not important.

Should health insurance providers be required to offer free birth control?

Yes, and this should fall under healthcare, so max importance.

Should “gender identity” be added to anti-discrimination laws?

Yes.

Somewhat important.

Should gay couples have the same adoption rights as straight couples?

Yes, somewhat important.

Should a business be able to deny service to a customer if the request conflicts with the owner’s religious beliefs?

No. Businesses should suck it up and deal with it.

Somewhat important.

Should the federal government institute a mandatory buyback of assault weapons?

No, and this is a blatant violation of the right to bear arms.

Somewhat important.

Should universities provide “trigger warnings” and “safe spaces” for students?

No, you're in college to learn, they shouldn't coddle your feelings. 

Low importance.

Should businesses be required to have women on their board of directors?

Literal "MORE*clap*FEMALE*clap*CEOS" material right here.

No. This is more affirmative action crap.

Low importance.

Should the federal government require racial sensitivity training for employees?

For police maybe, for everyone? No.

Not important.

Do you support the death penalty?

No, it's barbaric.

Moderate importance.

Should states be allowed to display the Confederate flag on government property?

No its a flag of traitors and racists.

Low importance though.

Should the government support a separation of church and state by removing references to God on money, federal buildings, and national monuments?

Yes, we should have separation of church and state. Low importance though.

Should the military allow women to serve in combat roles?

Yeah if they can pass the physical tests.

Moderate importance.

Should women be allowed to wear a Niqāb, or face veil, to civic ceremonies?

Why not? Either way I don't care. Not important.

Should hate speech be protected by the first amendment?

Yes, this is a matter of free speech.

Moderate importance.

Should the government increase environmental regulations to prevent climate change?

Yes. Absolutely. Do what is needed to save the planet.

High importance.

Should the U.S. withdraw from the Paris Climate Agreement?

No, and doing so was dumb.

High importance.

Should drilling be allowed in the Alaska Wildlife Refuge?

No, and we should be getting off of oil. 
 
High importance.

Should disposable products (such as plastic cups, plates, and cutlery) that contain less than 50% of biodegradable material be banned?

This I'm gonna say no on as it seems too extreme. Low importance though.

Should the U.S. expand offshore oil drilling?

 No and we should kick the oil addiction.

High importance.

Do you support the use of hydraulic fracking to extract oil and natural gas resources?

No, and we need to get off of oil.

High importance.

Should the government give tax credits and subsidies to the wind power industry?

Absofreakinglutely.

Max importance.

Should the government stop construction of the Dakota Access pipeline?

Yes, but it's not important because then we'd have to reroute oil elsewhere anyway.

Should researchers be allowed to use animals in testing the safety of drugs, vaccines, medical devices, and cosmetics?

How else do you suggest we test such things?

Low importance.

Should cities be allowed to offer private companies economic incentives to relocate?

Heck no. And the fact that we do so is screwed up. 

More important.

Should foreigners, currently residing in the United States, have the right to vote?

"Yes, but only after living in the country for 5 years"
 
Low importance.

Should the electoral college be abolished?

"Yes, and switch to a ranked voting system"
 
Ranked choice voting baby!
 
High importance.

Should a photo ID be required to vote?

 no this is just a way for the right to engage in voter suppression while claiming to care about fraud.

Somewhat important.

Should political candidates be required to release their recent tax returns to the public?

After Donald Trump, yeah, I'd very much like to see their tax returns. 

Low importance.

Should there be a limit to the amount of money a candidate can receive from a donor?

"Yes, and ban all political donations and publicly fund elections"
 
High importance

Should the minimum voting age be lowered?

I'm fine with 18. 

Low importance.

Should a politician, who has been formerly convicted of a crime, be allowed to run for office?

Depends on the crime. Like Trump? He shouldn't be allowed to run again. But someone who otherwise served their time and didn't commit a political crime? Sure.

Less important.

Should corporations, unions, and non-profit organizations be allowed to donate to political parties?

No, get all money out of politics.

More important.

Should foreign lobbyists be allowed to raise money for American elections?

No, again, all money out of politics.

More important.

Should there be a 5-year ban on White House and Congressional officials from becoming lobbyists after they leave the government?

"Yes, and make it a lifetime ban"
 
Andrew Yang had some interesting proposals on this.
 
 More important.

If the 2022 Pennsylvania Lieutenant Governor election were held today, which candidate would you vote for?

Austin Davis. Pretty sure he was the democrat.

Less important.

If the 2022 Pennsylvania Gubernatorial election were held today, which candidate would you vote for?

Josh Shapiro. Gonna vote blue primarily to protect abortion rights here in PA.

More important.

If the 2022 Pennsylvania US Senate election were held today, which candidate would you vote for?

 Fetterman is awesome. 

More important.

Whom would you most like to run for President in 2024?

I wrote in Andrew Yang.

Max importance.

If the 2022 Pennsylvania Auditor election were held today, which candidate would you vote for?

Tim Defoor. I mean, he was the only one listed, so.

Not important.

Which qualities are most important to you in a candidate?

Vision,  honesty, leadership, determination, ability to inspire, morality.

Basically, I want someone with a strong vision and a strong moral compass, a strong grasp on policy, and a willingness to stick to one's guns. 

Of course not all of those were mentioned here. I'm writing in policy too.

Results

Parties

90% socialist

89% green

88% transhumanist

87% democratic

85% peace and freedom

80% american solidarity

29% libertarian

13% republican

10% constitution

So I scored very highly on left wing parties and very lowly on right wing parties. Which is weird given how often I strayed from the left wing doctrine on a lot of social justicey type issues. Seriously, lefties castigate me for my relative conservative stance on immigration.

But it just goes to show, for as much as I have disagreements with them, I statistically agree with them 85-90% of the time. They're way too purity testy in that sense.

To be fair, I am too. A lot of these parties aren't aligned with my priorities either. And I dont really identify strongly with any of these parties. I'm not a socialist, I dont align with the greens on more than a nominal level, and the democrats I hate with a passion. 

So I feel like this ignores a lot of differences there. 

Senate candidates

91% John Fetterman

40% Erik Gerhardt

15% Mehmet Oz

No mistake here. Fetterman is Bernie with a beard and tattoos. And Oz is a joke. 

And yeah not a lot of agreement with the right libs either.

Governor

91% Josh Shapiro

44% Joe Soloski

18% Doug Mastriano

No mistake here either. Shapiro is as weak as wet cardboard for me, but again, playing defensive on abortion rights here. Mastriano is a bit of a nutcase. he's a literal Jan 6ther. 

Lt. Governor

91% Austin Davis

18% Carrie DelRosso

15% Tim McMaster

Yep, again, a lot closer to the democrat than the republican/libertarian candidates.

President

90% Bernie Sanders

89% Alexandria Ocasio Cortez

88% Elizabeth Warren

86% Kamala Harris

85% Pete Buttigieg

84% Amy Klobuchar

82% Tulsi Gabbard

79% Joe Biden

75% Mark Cuban
 
23% Nikki Haley
 
22% Candace Owens
 
19% Donald Trump 

17% Marco Rubio

16% Rand Paul

16% Mike Pence

14% Ron Desantis

13% Ben Shapiro

12% Ted Cruz

No real surprises here. Bernie is the best candidate on this list, and yes, AOC and Warren are next.

Harris I'm actually warming up on a lot. Looking at her 2020 policy like with healthcare, she wasn't that bad. I didnt like her since I thought she was a fake compared to Bernie, but Harris actually had a somewhat respectable platform. Not as progressive as I'd like but I could tolerate her. Better than Biden.

Beyond that just...ugh.

Buttigieg by my own analyses is worse than Biden. He's like eating drywall flavored oatmeal to me.

Klobuchar, ugh. Tulsi Gabbard I used to like but she went like full right winger recently so screw her.

Biden, eh...i'd flip him and buttigieg honestly. 

Mark Cuban, he might run on Yang's forward party. I dont like him ANYWHERE near as much as Yang.

Yang is totally scrubbed but I remember in 2020 my result with him was weird. Like 82% or something. Then again outside of UBI he was a pretty bog standard democrat with a few interesting ideas. Even on healthcare the dude just imploded. 

I like him for his ideology but yeah he is a bit iffy on other positions sometimes.

I'm growing more willing to tolerate moderation as long as my top goals are reached though. Given how much weight i give to UBI i can overlook a lot of the crap Yang does. 

Beyond that, you see a very steep dropoff as we enter republican territory and i only agree with them 12-25%  of the time. 

Yeah. That's...about right. 

I do think this test tends to ignore a lot of progressive infighting and purity tests, but yeah, either way despite whatever flaws I have compared to a lot of other more progressive lefties, im a lot closer to then than the right. Here's the proof. And yeah, it goes the other way. I can still agree with Biden 80% of the time on here when in reality weighting my priorities it's more like 40% of the time. So yeah. Not a perfect test, but it's still worth taking.

Anyway, that's the last test I planned on talking here. I just wanted to post a few of them, get an idea of where I'm at and make it public knowledge.

You now should know how I think about roughly every issue.