Wednesday, November 16, 2016

Party realignments, where we stand, and the roadmap going forward

After the last article talking about how progressivism is doomed, I want to put forward an alternate interpretation of what just happened, and what we need to do on the left going forward. I believe I already covered some of this, so I'll do it in a more condensed form. The basis of my theory relies heavily on the fact that the last party alignment seems to mirror the current one, and that history is, in a way, repeating itself. Since party realignments happen regularly, I think we have good reason to believe this.

Anyway, here's the most succinct way I can show this:

Hoover --> Carter

Roosevelt --> Reagan

Truman --> Bush

Eisenhower --> Clinton

Kennedy/Johnson --> Bush Jr.

Nixon/Ford --> Obama/Clinton

Carter --> Trump

Now to explain my analogy. Party realignments happen in cycles over a few decades. They've happened quite regularly, and normally happen every 36 years, although in more recent years may take a bit longer. There's a lot of parallels between the past alignment and the current one, and I'll try my best to explain it.

Hoover --> Carter

Herbert Hoover was elected, and then the great depression happened. Regardless of whether his actions helped or hurt, Hoover and the GOP were inevitably blamed for the mess, and this led to the rise of FDR, 20 years of solid democratic control of the government that revolutionized how America is governed economically and is arguably the basis for our shared success as a country. Whereas Hoover was the last of the gilded age presidents, Carter's presidency brought a close to the New Deal era once and for all. Faced with stagflation, infighting amongst his own party, foreign policy failures like the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan and the whole Iran hostage crisis thing, Carter's presidency is deemed a failure. In both Hoover and Carter's case, the blame was ill gotten and they weren't as bad as they are remembered, but regardless, they represented a close to a former era in American history, with their successor representing a political revolution in how things are done.

Roosevelt --> Reagan

In 1932, Roosevelt was elected as president and the democrats began a 20 year domination of the government. FDR implemented our first social programs, and did a ton of stuff to bring the nation through the depression. He also was our leader through most of World War II. He revolutionized politics in his time and moved us hard to the left. Reagan, after the failures of Carter's presidency, put an end of stagflation and cleaned up Carter's foreign policy messes. While he is portrayed as larger than life and his ideology is given credit for the successes here, in reality things are more complicated. Either way, he used the opportunity to push his right wing agenda and ended the new deal coalition for good. He set America on a new course for better or for worse and his ideas are the basis for our current economic paradigm even today.

Truman --> Bush

These guys are both "coat tail" presidents so to speak. They're the former vice presidents of the architects of the ideology that dominates party alignments, and they mostly followed their predecessors on their coat tails. Truman was essentially the successor to FDR, and Bush was the successor of Reagan. Truman was more popular in his time, and won reelection in 1948, while Bush faced a recession in 1992 and other issues that cost him reelection. Overall, while these presidents were considered inferior to their predecessors, they're still at least somewhat fondly remembered by their bases.

Eisenhower --> Clinton

Here is where we start seeing the opposition party come back from the political wilderness. In 1952, due to Stevenson being a weak candidate, and Eisenhower being a war hero, we see a republican elected for the first time in 20 years. The republican party of the 1950s was not the republican party of the 20s. It was far more moderate, and largely supportive of the democrat's new deal stuff. Eisenhower governed like a progressive democrat would do today on the economy in a lot of ways, and considered touching stuff like social security political suicide. Clinton was much like that too. In order to win, he and other like minded "new democrats" moved to the center and governed like republican lites. Clinton proposed welfare reform and all kinds of other things that came up in this election cycle when his wife ran and is out of place in a modern progressive democratic party.

Kennedy/Johnson --> Bush

Here we see the dominant party come back into power, but unlike before, things aren't as good as we remember them to be. Kennedy died shortly into his presidency, but Johnson faced a lot of issues in his time that damaged the credibility of his party. The vietnam war was a huge thing, and there were tons of protests. Johnson shut down the state democrats on segregation and got a lot of hate for that. In 1968, we saw the democratic party split as the south joined George Wallace, and with that, we got another republican president. Likewise, Bush Jr.'s presidency is deemed a bit of a failure. Between the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and the economy collapsing twice on his watch, he is deemed a failure and may have set his party on a death spiral we are still witnessing today.

Nixon/Ford --> Obama/Clinton

After witnessing the failures of the dominant party and having the country's faith permanently shaken in their ability to lead, the less dominant party comes back into power...but this time, they're on the rise. Nixon took advantage of disarray in the democratic party and started to form a coalition that would eventually lead to the rise of Reagan. By playing on the south's frustrations with the democrats, he courted them to his side. In office, he governed as a moderate, and pushed for things like environmental regulations and even a watered down version of basic income (cough). Obama also governed as a moderate in his time and tapped into a youth vote that, as we saw this election, the democrats failed to do so. He put together a coalition that, in the long term should be able to ensure the dominance of the democratic party if they can figure out how to use it properly. However, in both cases, they failed to do so. Nixon encountered watergate and economic issues on his wage, and was forced to resign. Ford pardoned him, and lost his political credibility in 1976, where he lost to Carter. While Obama's presidency was relatively scandal free, Clinton was a very dirty and scnadal laden president. She harmed the party's credibility in a similar way to Nixon in my opinion, and set up the stage for Donald Trump to be president.

Carter --> Trump

The dominant party gets back in power for one last hurrah, only to find themselves way in over their heads. I discussed Carter and his inability to govern properly, and I don't think Trump will be much different. The guy is completely inexperienced, has no idea what he's doing, has no idea how to deliver on the promises he made, and is such a hot head he might trigger a civil war in his own party out of his own arrogance and pride. I don't expect Trump to be a good president. I don't expect him to win a second term. Some are already suspecting he will be impeached and replaced by Pence, a move that would likely make the GOP destroy itself. The way I see it, with Trump as president, the GOP is a ticking time bomb that will implode in, say, 4 years.  It will be the end of an era, and it will lead to the rise of a new, progressive one.

Going forward: Sanders/Warren --> Reagan?

With the democratic party picking up the pieces after its defeat, I think that we have an opportunity to regroup. In 1976, the GOP chose Ford over Reagan to run, and what happened? Ford lost, and the GOP, despite having this winning coalition, failed to utilize it properly. However, due to democrats being incompetent at that point, the GOP came back and won in 1980. Reagan used and expanded on Nixon's southern strategy, and this led to the republicans replacing the democrats as the dominant ideological party in Washington.

Given frustration over the economy, the fact that the demographics looking forward look very favorable to the democrats, and because I think someone like Sanders has the right ideas going forward, I think he or someone like him can be our Reagan going forward. He could unite the democrats into a coalition that should dominate the thinking of Washington DC for around 40 years. I don't expect this coalition to be dominant forever, and I don't expect them to be free of missteps. I'm guessing it will likely fall apart some time in the 2050s or 2060s. But it can be the dominant coalition for a good chunk of the 21st century if we let it.

Democrats, it's on you now. Get rid of the centrists who cost us this election, and run a progressive democratic party that is geared toward retaking congress in 2018, and the presidency in 2020. It might seem dark now, but I don't think a Trump presidency means we're doomed. It means we're only getting started. Hunker down, wait for Trump to screw up, and then blindside him with an overwhelming defeat in 2020. I think the country is ready to move on from the status quo. It's just that most people don't know the proper way to do it yet. And the way I see it, the left is the only way forward. Right wing ideas won't fix the country; they're the very essence of the problem. Moderate democrats won't do much better. We need to be economic progressives, much like the FDR alignment before us. We need to look to that for guidance, and expand upon it to make this country better than it ever was. Forget "making america great again", let's just make us "great", period.

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