So I've discussed it before. Despite being vaccinated, COVID is scary. The vaccine helps, but it does not make people COVID proof. You actually need herd immunity to wipe out the disease entirely and stop it from spreading. I notice a lot of pro vaccine people like to avoid talking about breakthrough cases, and the stance of the Biden administration seems to be hush hush on the subject. I don't like that. I believe we should be honest, but people are afraid due to scientific illiteracy that people will take anything other than downplaying these cases as feeding Trumper narratives about how vaccines don't work. This isn't true, so I wanna nip this in the bud right now by discussing efficacy rates.
It's true, vaccines don't make you COVID proof. However, they make you COVID resistant. Imagine you have 100 people with the shot, and 100 people without the shot. Imagine among this "control" group without the shot, all 100 get COVID and die. I know, I know, not realistic, I'm trying to prove a point here though. What happens to the vaccinated group? Well, 88 of them don't get sick at all, since pfizer, the most researched vaccine, has an 88% efficacy against the delta variant. Some might carry COVID since they're, you know, exposed to it, but they don't get sick at the same rates as those who get it. Of the 12 that get it, only 4 go to the hospital, representing the 96% efficacy against severe disease. And then one person dies, representing 99% efficacy at preventing death. So, you can still die from it, but you're literally way more at risk of dying if you don't have it. On a factor of like 100. You're only 1/25 as likely to have to go to the hospital. And you're still 1/8 as likely to get sick AT ALL. Vaccines work, get your vaccines. But that doesn't mean you can't get sick. Now let's look at real world data.
Go down to figure 2 there if you click the above link. Yikes. Depending on what state you are, vaccinated cases are 0.2-5.9% of all COVID cases. The median seems to be around 1.3%. That means that almost 99% of cases that are reported (which are probably weighed toward serious cases that sent people to get tested) are among the unvaccinated. Hospitalizations tell a similar story. 1-2% on average among the unvaccinated, 98-99% among the unvaccinated. Deaths tell the same story.
So, at least here, we have a clear vaccine efficacy of 98-99%. Now, to be fair, there are issues with this data. First of all, reporting. Say I'm vaccinated and get the sniffles. Am I gonna run out and get tested? Probably not. So I guess this might underestimate the reported cases in practice. But that could apply the other way in the form of mild covid among the unvaccinated too. And it might be the case they just dont get mild covid if they catch covid that much if they're unvaccinated. Still, given the same conditions apply among both groups, a 98-99% reduction in reported cases is a huge improvement. Another issue with the data is deaths. Say I get in a car accident, go to the emergency room, and die from wounds from the accident. Say they do a COVID test on my body and find out I'm positive for COVID. Well, that technically counts as a COVID death for some weird reason. And it's possible a lot of those people who died from COVID while vaccinated could have been admitted for unrelated reasons and died as a result. You can still carry COVID while vaccinated, even if you don't get sick. That's a huge reason the CDC is bringing back mask recommendations. That said, it's possible that this is overrepresenting COVID deaths among the vaccinated. Regardless, a 50-100x reduction is a good thing.
Here's the thing. If masks didn't work, you would see roughly 50% vaccinated and 50% unvaccinated among these results. Maybe a bit off like 47-53 due to variability with margins of error (see my political forecasts), but still close to 50-50. You wouldn't see a statistically significant correlation. A 98-99% reduction in sickness and harm is a HUGE reduction and shows an extremely statistically significant correlation between getting the vaccines and not dying from COVID. That said, that's the figure that you need to look at. Yes, some people will still get sick. Some might even die, but the vaccines help.
Regardless, I would recommend people continue to take all necessary precautions to avoid getting sick. You CAN still get COVID even if you are vaccinated. This demonstrates it. But the statistics show it will be far less severe even if you do, and you'll be less likely to die. Elderly people in particular might need to worry most since most breakthrough cases are among older adults. But even among that group they're still going to be far safer with the vaccine than without.
That said, get the vaccine, it reduces your risk by a factor of 50-100x, but still continue to play it safe due to the risk of a breakthrough case. You're not invincible just because you have the vaccine. But it does help a lot. And if everyone get it, well, COVID wouldn't even be a problem any more. But many aren't getting it, which is why I'm sitting here laying out statistics. Get the shot.
No comments:
Post a Comment