So....the results aren't totally in, but we do know who won. And the results are...exactly what you'd expect.
Republican Primary
Right now, with 60% of the vote in and the race called by the AP...Donald Trump won.
Donald Trump- 53.7%
Nikki Haley- 44.7%
So basically a 9 point spread. it was a little closer earlier at 8 points, but I also saw it at 10 on the news, so who knows it fluctuates, but that's basically it.
And this is...basically that best case scenario I talked about yesterday. Where all the DeSantis voters went Haley and Trump remains the same. It wasn't enough. Because Trump had a clear majority and enough of a buffer where even an upset wouldn't put Haley in range to win.
And Haley is talking about staying in and "only getting started", but let's be realistic, this is over. New Hampshire is the high water mark for all candidates, democratic and republican, and if you can't pull off an upset here, it's over. Even if South Carolina is Haley's home state, let's face it, she's not gonna win. At best, the results will be this all over again. She can try as she might, but that's the reality of things as I see it.
Democratic Primary
Right now, with 64% in, we got:
Dean Phillips- 20.9%
Joe Biden (write in)- 17.4%
Marianne Williamson- 4.3%
Unprocessed write in- 53.4%
WHAT AN UPSET, UNPROCESSED WRITE IN WINS!
...
Yeah okay, those are all Biden votes, we understand that, right? So the real results for Biden are basically 70.8%. He won in a landslide and crushed Dean Phillips and Marianne Williamson. It wasn't even close. And this was without Biden on the ballot, in the most wildcard primary where it's easiest for an insurgent candidate to break through.
It's over.
I mean, I'm still gonna vote for Williamson or Phillips if there's a primary to be had by the time it gets to me in April, but...yeah.
The people overwhelmingly want biden.
But how? Despite his crappy numbers nationally, why did he do so well here? Because primaries have selection biases. It's not everyone voting for them, it's registered democrats, and the kind of people most likely to register as democrats are the real die hard types who like the party and its brand. Insurgent candidates have so many problems with gaining steam because independents and even a lot of partisans who aren't politically aware just don't vote in these primaries. bernie had this problem, but was able to remain relatively strong at this stage of the race, he doesnt fall apart typically until south carolina and super tuesday, but this election? Almost no one even heard of Dean Phillips and Marianne Williamson, and the target demographic didn't want them. I saw one post on ESS today suggesting at least one voter interviewed found Dean phillips annoying because she was super pro Biden.
Well, dems, you can keep making your bed like this, but you're gonna have to sleep in it come november. The fact is no matter what you guys do now like 70% of the country doesnt like Biden, you know that, right? I aint even saying someone like Phillips or Williamson CAN pull off better numbers than Biden, Im kinda inclined to believe the dems are screwed and this is just gonna inevitably be a very red year as a result. But we also dont know how another candidate would do, as the news organizations kinda suppressed the competition, and because polling agencies didn't poll to see how these guys would do vs Trump or Haley.
So yeah. Let's face it, it's over. Barring Biden having a heart attack or Trump going to jail, we're gonna be stuck with Biden vs Trump. Again. And the matchup is not gonna go well this time.
And that's that. Probably the most interesting primary state is over, the rest is just gonna be cleanup. If you cant see a break through in these early states, it's probably not gonna happen. Trump vs Biden it is. Ugh....
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