I mean let's face it, we all know this is gonna be a Trump-Biden rematch right? I discussed the primaries, the results are following the trends, and I don't see any way for it not to be a boring 2020 rematch barring health issues or legal issues getting in the way.
So let's go into it:
National Polling: Trump + 4.3%
This isn't good. That's down 2 points from last month, where I had Biden at a 11.5% chance of winning.
As for the states:
And it keeps getting worse and worse. Georgia, Nevada, and Michigan have gotten more red. Biden's chance of winning has dropped down to 9% from 11-12%. We finally got Maine CD2 polling, it's so high it's off the charts. Wtf, New York dropped down to +9, how do you do so badly in NY? That should be like an easy +20-30% pro Biden state.
On the flip side, Virginia has gotten slightly bluer, as has Pennsylvania. PA actually flipped back to Biden. Not sure how that will hold up in practice, it's still pretty split, but any movement in the right direction is good.
And yeah. It's getting worse. We are worse off this month than last month in net. We're way worse than 2-3 months ago when I started doing these monthly predictions. And even then I was noting that Biden seems absolutely screwed.
If we hit 95% chance Trump, 5% Biden, we're back in Obama 2008 territory. Right now, we're at a 9.2% chance Biden wins, and a 90.8% chance Trump wins. So it's pretty close. We're getting there.
Right now, Wisconsin is still 50-50, so the most likely electoral college vote is either going to be 283-255 Trump, or 293-245 Trump, depending on which way Wisconsin goes.
We are screwed. Still, we have around 9 months to turn this around. I just hope people wake up and abandon Trump en masse (or people get more used to voting for Biden again) or we're gonna lose.
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