So...rare potential W for Trump, but let's talk about this other proposal he has. Okay, so you know those tariffs that he imposed on us that's raising prices? Well, now he's floating the idea of $2000 tariff checks.
....did....did we just get a republican to backdoor us into the first steps toward a basic income? Holy crap. I kinda like this, at least conceptually. It really depends on implementation. It could be good, it could suck, it depends on how they do it and so far they have zero policy details to analyze.
But I will say this. if it's done in a revenue neutral way, it could be progressive. Think of it this way. If 10% do 50% of spending (chart cited here), then when they're probably going to pay 50% of the tariffs. And if the money is redistributed back to everyone, then those at the bottom should get more and those at the top should get less relative to their spending.
It's a sound idea, at least in theory. It just depends on whether it's revenue neutral, how they disberse the money (I heard it may not be a UBI, but something means tested you gotta fill out forms for), etc. So this could suck, it could have a million catches that make it a terrible idea. Or it could be kinda like a mini UBI. Either way, I'll give credit where credit is due, these are the kinds of policies we should discuss in America, and this is a rare potential win for Trump IMO.
I will say this, they collected $195 billion this year in tariffs, and if you redistributed that among say, 250 million adults in the US, you would be distributing....$780 checks. So somewhere, the math isn't mathing. If it's gonna be $2000 they're gonna be funding it with deficit spending, or they're gonna be limiting who it applies to. So...already picking out one flaw. Maybe its $2000 per HOUSEHOLD. There are 133 million households in the US, so that amounts to $1,466. Math still isnt mathing, but if they limit it to those below $100k income on a household level, that would be 57% of households, and would bring the checks up to around $2566. So the math finally maths. At the $2000 level, they could extend it to 97,500,000 households, which is 73% of them.
So...is this potentially a good proposal? Maybe. I mean, I wouldnt be trying to do UBI this way myself, but....it would offset the tariff costs somewhat for lower income americans and maybe give them an extra bit of money in their pockets. I'm not opposed to the idea. Again, this is one of the few things trump has ever proposed that I raise my eyebrows at and am like "now that sounds like a good idea!" Honestly, I think he just wants to sign his name to stimulus checks again like he did in the middle of the COVID recession. Either way, I will praise Trump when he does something that doesn't suck for a change.
EDIT: And no, this doesnt make me pro tariffs any more than supporting Andrew Yang makes me pro VAT. I prefer an income tax to pay for UBI payments and it being structured similar to an NIT. I actually think trump's tariffs were a terrible idea. However, I ain't gonna look a gift horse in the mouth here.
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