So...I decided to try an experiment to model the 2028 results based on the shifts seen from the 2025 governors races. As we know, Virginia and New Jersey were kinda close last year, getting around 5-6 points in the democrats' favor. However, in the 2025 race, we ended up seeing a shift closer to 13-14 points. As such, we can deduce that the electorate shifted by 8 or so based on these results. What would a D+8 relative to 2024 result look like? Basically this:
While this is a substantial shift, it's not a blowout for democrats. Basically, we win back the 7 main swing states but stop short of flipping anything else. While those 7 states were close, only going Trump by around a point, to up to 5.5 in Arizona's case, there's a massive plateau that the democrats need to clear to flip anything else. It's kind of a sheer cliff for them. Whereas it was hard for republicans in 2024 to get more than 312 electoral votes, it's hard for democrats to get more than 319. A 10 point shift is needed to get ME2, which would be the 320th electoral vote. Then we'd need 11.2 for Ohio to fall, and then NE1, Florida, Alaska, Iowa, and Texas all require 13-14ish to flip blue. I didn't even bother recording states after that in this model and just assumed a 100% chance no matter what.
Still, this is a substantial shift from 2024. And it's one the republicans are probably panicking about. Seriously, I feel like, after listening to some commentators, that I've been downplaying the significance of this 2025 election. Apparently some rural conservative distracts are flipping HARD over losing medicaid and SNAP benefits. Because, ya know, those areas dont have many jobs and you kinda need welfare just to survive. Now, if it were me, I'd say let this happen, but I just got word 8 democrats are defecting to reopen the government, which is disappointing. Ugh. Honestly, really, i think if we want the republican party to be thoroughly repudiated, we kinda gotta let people really feel the consequences of what voting republican is actually like. I dont think dems should cave on the shutdown. Morally, they're right. it's the republicans who are acting evil. let them own it. That's how we get people to turn on the republicans for good. But yeah. We were just on the cusp of having all these rural people wake up and realize the GOP is evil. Oh well. Either way, I do think we'll see a significant shift from 2024. Even if we go by the generic congressional vote, which is only 4 points, this is what we get:
Yeah, it don't really change a ton. We lose AZ but keep the other 6 swing states. As such, I think the probability of democratic victory in 2028, barring any funny business, is actually pretty high. Margins are lower, but we still win. So yeah, i think the chance of dems winning in 2028 is high, but the map seems relatively inflexible. it really does come down to those 7 swing states, with the others requiring a massive red or blue wave to flip. Quite frankly based on 2024, it would likely be easier for republicans to flip new hampshire and minnesota than it would be for democrats to make inroads in places like ohio, texas, florida, or iowa these days, even if we won arizona. Winning us winning ohio would be like the republicans winning virginia or new jersey. I mean it's becoming more likely, but that's just how much of a hurdle that needs to be overcome here.
Still, based on the maps, 70% is a conservative probability for democrats in 2024, with over 90% being possible if dems are REALLY up in the polls. We shouldnt be too arrogant, but yeah it's looking good.
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