Okay, so I was on vacation for three weeks, hence the relative lack of content, but now I'm back. I'm hearing a lot about how Hillary is supposedly floundering in the polls now so let's take a look at the damage.
Aggregate polling - 0.9% Clinton (down from 3.9%)
Ouch. It's almost dead even now. Clinton is less than a point ahead.
Aggregate polling with third party candidates - 0.7% Clinton (down from 3.2%)
No real statistically significant change from the two way match ups. Also ouch though.
Electoral College
Arizona - 1.6% Trump (down from 2.5%)
Florida - 1.0% Trump (flipped from Clinton)
Georgia - 4.2% Trump (up from 1.6%)
Iowa - 4.3% Trump (up from 0.8%)
Missouri - 7.7% Trump (up from 3.0%)
Nevada - 0.8% Clinton (down from 2.3%)
North Carolina - 0.6% Clinton (up from 0.5%)
Ohio - 1.2% Trump (flipped from Clinton)
Maine CD2 - 5.4% Trump (up from 1%)
Ouch, owie, ouch, Clinton is losing the close states like crazy. Maybe this is a regression from her post convention bump, or calling Trump supporters deplorables, or getting pneumonia, but Clinton seems to be in trouble all of the sudden. Still, even if Clinton lost these states, she could still win the electoral college since she's so far ahead, so let's look at her more solid "blue wall" of support.
Clinton's "blue wall"
Colorado - 3.7% Clinton
Michigan - 5.2% Clinton
New Hampshire - 5.0% Clinton
Pennsylvania - 6.6% Clinton
Virginia - 3.5% Clinton
Wisconsin - 5.3% Clinton
Yikes. If she drops much more in the polls, she's going to have an experience not much different than Trump was in not too long ago. Any other update I'd just consider Virginia and Colorado swing states because of those margins, but because I didn't even include them in my last several updates because Clinton was like +9 in those states, it's worth noting here. It should be mentioned that if Trump wins first batch of states above, he only needs one of these states to win the election. Yikes. Let's look at how this turns out for the electoral college.
Election Scenarios
Most likely scenario with no swing states (<=3% lead) - 272-187 Clinton
Most likely scenario with toss ups (<=1% lead) - 272-216 Clinton
Most likely scenario (best guess) - 293-245 Clinton
All toss ups Clinton (Clinton + 1) - 322-216 Clinton
Clinton + 2 - 351-187 Clinton
Clinton + 3 - 351-187 Clinton
Clinton + 4 - 351-187 Clinton
Clinton + 5 - 373-165 Clinton
Clinton + 6 - 374-164 Clinton
All toss ups Trump (Trump + 1) - 272-266 Clinton
Trump + 2 - 272-266 Clinton
Trump + 3 - 272-266 Clinton
Trump + 4 - 250-288 Trump
Trump + 5 - 246-292 Trump
Trump + 6 - 220-318 Trump
Discussion
Ouch. The most likely scenario now is similar to what the Trump +3 scenario was last update. Good thing for Clinton that she has that blue wall of states or she would be in real trouble. Although even that is showing signs of cracking (Virginia, Colorado,etc.). Clinton had a lot she could afford to lose, and she's lost it dearly. She went from having a comfortable lead to bringing it down to the wire. While she still has a lot going for her like the structural leanings of the electoral college favoring the democrats, she cannot afford to lose more than she is. If Trump wins all of the close races, it will only take one state to win the entire election. When it's possible a tiny 4 electoral vote state like New Hampshire could decide the election, you know you're in for a nail biter. I still think the odds are good that Clinton will still win, although the margins by which seem to be declining at an alarming rate. Still, to answer the question I asked in my first ever election update, Trump may not be so screwed after all. He actually has a fighting chance of winning now.
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