I was surprised to look at the polls today and notice that oh crap, Clinton is really getting destroyed now. It looked like she was rebounding a few days after my last update, but then I saw that 538 was giving Trump a 55% chance of winning or something crazy so I decided to look at the polls again. Wow, that "blue wall" I discussed last time is eroding where many of those states are just simple swing states, and other states are joining them. It looks like this election is anyone's game now.
Aggregate polling - 2.4% Clinton (up from from 0.9%)
Well it looks like she's rebounding in terms of the aggregates at least...
Aggregate polling with third party candidates - 1.6% Clinton (up from 0.7%)
Same here.
Electoral College
Changes: Missouri looks like it's off the table now and in solid Trump territory. Maine itself is now in play, as is Minnesota, which is very disturbing for Clinton because I consider that a solid blue state.
Arizona - 1.6% Trump
Colorado - 0.2% Trump
Florida - 0.6% Clinton
Georgia - 4.5% Trump
Iowa - 4.8% Trump
Maine - 5.0% Clinton
Maine CD2 - 5.4% Trump
Michigan - 4.7% Clinton
Minnesota - 4.0% Clinton
Nevada - 2.0% Trump
New Hampshire - 5.0% Clinton
North Carolina - 0.3% Trump
Ohio - 1.8% Trump
Pennsylvania - 2.4% Clinton
Virginia - 6.9% Clinton
Wisconsin - 4.7% Clinton
All in all it looks like Clinton took some damage. Let's see how this pans out with the electoral college.
Election Scenarios
Most likely scenario with no swing states <=6% lead) - 200-164 (no winner)
Most likely scenario with no swing states (<=3% lead) - 243-187 (no winner)
Most likely scenario with no swing states (<=1% lead) - 263-222 (no winner)
Most likely scenario (best guess) - 292-246 Clinton
Clinton + 1 - 316-222 Clinton
Clinton + 2 - 351-187 Clinton
Clinton + 3 - 351-187 Clinton
Clinton + 4 - 351-187 Clinton
Clinton + 5 - 373-165 Clinton
Clinton + 6 - 374-164 Clinton
Trump + 1 - 263-275 Trump
Trump + 2 - 263-275 Trump
Trump + 3 - 243-295 Trump
Trump + 4 - 233-305 Trump
Trump + 5 - 200-338 Trump
Trump + 6 - 200-338 Trump
Discussion
So it looks like Clinton is still winning in the most likely projection. Still, she is dangerously close to losing, so dangerously close that the slightest mishap will cost her the election. So close that a "spoiler effect" might actually have an impact here, not that that should persuade anyone who doesn't like either candidate to support the lesser evil. If Clinton loses Florida like Gore did in 2000, that changes the entire election. The odds are literally like 51-49% in Clinton's favor or something crazy like that. It's that close right now. These last few months, Clinton has been so far ahead all she needed to do was defend her territory, and Trump needs to make serious gains to win. We are now at that point where Clinton is losing a lot of territory to Trump, a lot of states have leads narrowing where they are anyone's game. Statistically, the slightest error between the polls and the results can decide the election at this point. I expect this to change in the aftermath of the first debate considering most people seem to be saying Clinton won and Trump made quite a few gaffes that will likely alienate some voters in my opinion, but still, if things don't shift, this election day will be a nail biter.
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