So...being a millennial, I'm getting up there in years now where I can say I've seen some crap in my life elections wise. 1988, technically alive for, don't remember it. 1992, vaguely remember Bill Clinton playing saxophone, nothing else. 1996, I remember my dad liked Bob Dole, and had a paul shanklin album (conservative parody guy) about that election cycle. 2000, I remember it being a clusterfudge and not knowing who was president for a month. 2004, I remember fairly well, being the first election I took an interest in. I remember being an evangelical christian and liking Bush. I remember Kerry being blasted for his swift boat stuff. I remember the howard dean BYAH! I remember jib jab's "my land", and I remember my classmates dualing with lightsabers in front of voters with bush and kerry masks.
I couldn't actually vote until the 2008 election though. And, this is where I discuss what inspired me to write this. A lot of liberals were wondering if the 2012 election was particularly hard for the left, and I'm just going to say...no. Because, starting in Bush's second term, there started to be a sinking feeling among the right that, gee, it was screwed. I mean, voters were waking up. Bush was...not the most faithful interpretation of conservatism out there, and into Bush's second term, there was a general loss of confidence in the dude as a leader. While he was riding high in his first time after 9/11 as the country united behind him and he had a 90% approval rating and everyone was all on the same page with invading Afghanistan and Iraq and passing sweeping violations of our civil liberties like the PATRIOT act, in his second term...people on both sides really got sick of the guy. The fact was, the dude drove the country into a ditch. It became more and more apparent that Iraq was a mistake, with thousands of people dying, calls for troop surges, which made young me scared of being drafted, and it becoming quite clear that there never were weapons of mass destruction there. The unity of the early 2000s was followed by a general disunity later on. In 2006, the first year I was able to vote, I ended up voting split ticket, some democrats, some republicans, and the democrats won the house of representatives. I kind of felt like a change of leadership was needed, but in early 2007 I regretted my choice as Nancy Pelosi played games with the budget. Generally speaking, as the election season started taking off, republicans were in a slump. It reminded me a lot of the dems in 2016 and 2020. Where we just didn't like the candidates, and things were uninspiring. McCain ended up winning the primary, and I feel like no one really wanted him, we just chose him as a Bush third term. I actually went through my cringey libertarian phase around then and wanted Ron Paul. As I said, I felt like the republicans just abandoned conservative principles. I mean, Bush doubled the national debt between his wars and tax cuts, and his wars actually set the stage for the anti war/isolationist movement in the US, which I was kinda sorta a part of. I mean, pragmatically I understood we needed some international presence, but we obviously needed out of Iraq.
In some ways, McCain felt like a doubling down with everything wrong with the Bush administration. He wanted to stay in Iraq forever, and the dude was just...uninspiring. I even considered voting democratic in 2008, and had Hillary won the nomination, I would have supported her. Why? Because AS a moderate conservative at the time, she kinda spoke to my moderate values, she wasnt too far left for me, and she probably would have gotten us out of Iraq and straightened out the budget. But then there was...Obama. Now, Obama was "scary" to me. I mean, he was the evil "socialist". I didn't want him as I felt he was a threat to our country. There was a lot of stuff going around suggesting he was an extremist and into "liberation theology" and wanted to redistribute the wealth to the third world, and that he wanted universal healthcare and that would have death panels. I also figured he would also be an ineffective leader because nothing he wanted would pass congress, but still, I didn't want the dude in office.
2008 was a bitter pill to swallow. And most conservatives were quite fatalistic. Like, internal talk among ourselves told us that yeah, we were SCREWED. Obama was gonna win, it was gonna be a blow out. I think my election prediction that year was like 99% confidence in an Obama win. I actually had it almost 100% correct, only getting North Carolina wrong, which I thought would go more conservative. But otherwise, the writing was on the wall.
Even back then, I didnt really tow the party line. I mean, I was so unhappy with mccain as the nominee i even considered voting for Bob Barr as he was closer to Ron Paul, who I wanted, than McCain was. But ultimately, I ended up voting for McCain as I felt like Obama needed to be stopped. it should be noted, unlike on the left, I was not shamed for my ideas to vote bob barr. Democrats would SCREECH at me about the virtues of voting blue no matter who, but on the republican side, it was like "eh, it's your choice, i dont like mccain either."
And as I said, as election day came, we just braced for impact the best we could. We knew Obama would lose. The right didnt have a platform that resonated, and it was quite clear that a course correction was needed.
That said, in 2010, the ideas I originally started holding in 2008 with Ron paul, the idea that we need to go back to a more "pure" form of conservatism won out. And we got the tea party in 2010. And I was fired up, I was die hard for them at the time. I mean, this was the return to conservatism as it should be practiced we all really wanted, so why not support it?
But then...after they took office, I quickly got horrified by what I saw. First of all, the lack of compromise. While Obama's insane spending in the wake of the 2008 recession was a big focal point for conservative me, I kind of felt like reasonable compromises should be made. Instead, we got brinksmanship, with the GOP just holding the budget hostage. Like flat out "let's shut down the government to get what we want". And Obama seemed willing to compromise. He would offer spending cuts that went against his own party. But they would never be good enough. The GOP wanted to cut spending, but also refused to raise taxes on the rich. And here's the thing. If you're trying to balance a budget, there are two ways to do it, raise taxes, and cut spending. I thought it was perfectly reasonable to push for spending cuts if we raised taxes in return. But the GOP didn't want that, they wanted to lower taxes on the rich, giving money to the "job creators", who, quite frankly, weren't creating jobs, they were laying everyone off. I mean, we've discussed how even back then I was cynical of the world of work and how businesses were screwing people while making "record profits." And then insisting my dad had to give up his unemployment benefits to make that happen? Not a chance.
I mean, I think that 2012 was the election cycle we kinda realized that trickle down doesn't work. All of this supply side economics crap has been a massive failure, and it isn't doing anything for the American people. Obama was trying to stabilize the economy, and he was pretty cordial to republicans and clearly wanted to compromise, it was the republicans who didn't want to. They just wanted theirs, they would undermine the full faith and credit of the US to do it, and who does this beenfit? Rich people.
And it didn't stop there. I watched Tom Corbett here in PA laying off teachers and calling for austerity in the middle of the recession. For the party of job creators, the fact that these guys were killing jobs in the middle of a recession was just...no.
On social issues, the GOP started pushing for these assaults on abortion rights that seemed insane. We've seen a new wave of this with Roe v wade being nullified and it being open season against abortion, but even then they tried to suppress it as much as they could within the framework of roe v wade, leading to disgusting laws where women were forced to give birth to stillborn babies and crap. It was disgusting.
And...through this, I kind of realized that it wasn't just how the conservatives were behaving that was the problem, it wasnt like it was this brand of conservatism that was bad, and if we had a better brand of conservatism that that would be better. No, this WAS the pure form of these ideas. This WAS the logical conclusion to them. And I realized it was hellish.
It was so bad, I realized I had more in common with Obama than I did with the GOP at this point. And as I shifted to atheism and went through my great leaving of the cave, I started realizing my former ideas werent just flawed, they were pretty much evil. It was really a "are we the baddies?" moment for me. Yes, yes we were. And I decided to leave and to never engage in that again.
Looking back at the state of the country though, I don't feel like I was alone. I feel like the rest of the country was with me on this. Like...no one wanted this. People turned hard on the GOP. And the culture inside the GOP was just one of malaise. Like for presidential candidates, no one really had any ideas of who to support. I mean, names were thrown around, Gingrich, Guiliani, Romney, Herman Cain and his 999 plan. I mean, no one was really enthusiastic about these guys. And the more I looked at them and their platforms the more disgusted I was, and realized all of their ideas just benefitted the rich at the expense of everyone else. Everything the GOP does is about benefitting the rich. They dont make good policy. They just....try to help rich people and pander to evangelical nutcases.
Anyway, Obama was a shoe in for 2012. He was more in touch with the country. His unemployment expansion was saving our bacon, he was protecting our civil liberties better. He got out of iraq and had a moderate foreign policy I found very few issues with. I mean, he addressed my concerns at time better than the right did. The GOP just didnt resonate. Because they were a bunch of out of touch rich guys and crazy people who just didnt understand politics these days. They used to be it, and now they weren't. I mean, was this the end of the reagan coalition? It felt like the writing was on the wall.
So yeah, Obama winning felt like a blowout. It was narrower than 2008, but it still was an easy win. And it really did feel like the balance of power was shifting. Yes, the GOP still had power in congress. BUT, congress was also very gerrymandered in favor of the GOP. THe dems were winning the popular vote everywhere, the only reason the GOP held onto power was how anti competitive they made many congressional races. But it really did seem like the right was on the decline at this point. I really wanna hammer that home. We tend to act like this wasn't the case and it was just a couple screw ups on their part and obama had a charisma no one can replicate. But no, the country really was more aligned with the democrats in terms of values than the GOP. It was clear the GOP's coalition was aging. I mean the average fox news viewer was in their 60s, young people loved obama and wish he did more, heck, explaining a lot of their losses in 2010 and 2014, it really seemed the problem was...lack of enthusiasm. The people who wanted hope and change in 2008 just stopped showing up. Because obama was actually not doing enough. There were people who really did want universal healthcare. Who wanted to transform the country in ways that the republicans fear mongered about, but actually started sounding like a good idea.
And in Obama's second term, I started aligning with progressives, and expanding my own emerging leftn wing ideology, I started openly embracing for what I once feared....massive redistribution of wealth in the form of a UBI and universal healthcare. Free college and student debt forgiveness too. I started realizing that capitalism was broken and we needed a new new deal.
Which is where we get into 2016, and how crap got weird, and the democrats lost the plot. 2016 felt like 2008 for the democrats. It really did. Like...just like in Bush's second term, the malaise set in, we didn't want 4 more years of this. We wanted something different. I think people wanted a more progressive alternative to CLinton, who was being propped up as a third obama term the way mccain was propped up as a third bush term. And the democrats hit all the wrong notes. And they started getting weird and leaning into this blue no matter who rhetoric, and showed open hostility toward the emerging progressive coalition. And that's the thing that got me, that really alienated me, the democrats...were OPENLY HOSTILE toward their emerging progressive voting block. Like they flat out antagonized us constantly in the primary, and basically declared war on us calling us bernie bros and telling us we'll never get universal healthcare, and it was almost as if the democrats were TRYING to piss people off. I mean, they felt they could get away with it. When the GOP is basically dying, they could push whomever they wanted and they'd win. They knew the alternative was worse and most of us would fall in line anyway, so they didnt care if they abused us.
Which is why, unlike in 2008, I went out of my way to vote for the greens. It was a matter of principle for me. You dont pee in my cornflakes and openly alienate me and then try to strong arm me to support clinton who i didn't want. I didnt want a third obama term, I couldnt wait until obama was out so we could get someone more progressive in, who didnt take crap from the GOP, and who pushed unapologetically for progressive policies and principles. Instead, we got the person who promised to compromise with the GOP, despite them being openly hostile toward obama for years and clearly showing no attempts to compromise AT ALL.
Meanwhile the republican side got...weird too. Going into 2016, looking back at how conservatives were acting, they kinda realized they were giving up the ghost. There was a lot of doomerism on the republican side, as none of the options for president looked electable, and it seemed like they were too extreme and out of touch. The reagan coalition was flat out DYING. people were looking at electoral math and the blue wall and lamenting how the GOP would never win an election again.
But then...Trump came along. ANd he breathed fire back into their base. He would start trash talking everyone, and it resonated with something in the people. he was "the guy who was gonna drain the swamp" and get crap done. he put a face on conservatism that really made it appear more attractive, something the democrats failed to do. And the democrats...just ended up making themselves as unattractive as possible. It's like suddenly, the trends freom 2008 on were reversing, with the dems being the moderate out of touch status quo that no one wanted, and the GOP being the attractive outsiders who were gonna fix our problems. And somehow, despite the odds, trump won.
Now, you guys know my views on 2016. I ripped the dems constantly on this blog for this. They really took their base for granted, and the GOP just ended up regaining energy, which was previously thought impossible for them. And they won. They fricking won.
Of course, in 2018, the dems made a come back, but again, something to be noted, the dems were making a come back by being moderate. They abandoned all of their obama voters they gained through that era, they were now trying to win over FRICKING ROMNEY VOTERS who wanted moderation and compromise, and who felt trump was bad blah blah blah.
The trend went into 2020. And in 2020, it felt like another race to the bottom election. The dems did all of their same tricks, alienated me again, and then openly brought people like JON FRICKING KASICH into the democratic convention. Meanwhile, the GOP started flirting with a vibe that felt...openly fascist. The GOP got even crazier somehow, with trump's supporters starting to seem more...violent and dangerous. There was a talk about whether he was gonna tell them to back off but instead told them "stand down and stand by". And then there was the teargassing of protesters outside of the white house. And yeah. Meanwhile the dems just flat out remained as unattractive as humanly possible but Biden still won, because Trump was so alienating that Biden just eeked out a win.
Which...kind of brings me to being able to compare 2008 and 2012 to 2016 and 2020.
2008 and 2016 felt very much the same to me, but almost...reversed. In 2008 the dems had high energy and the GOP had a sense of "we're screwed". In 2016, the dems werent enthusiastic but there was an arrogant air of inevitability around Hillary. I would say the one difference between the republicans in 2008 and the democrats in 2016 was in 2008 the GOP knew they'd lose and seemed to make peace with it, while hillary arrogantly thought she had it in the bag. Like, the democrats had this air of arrogance around them the GOP never did. but otherwise, Id describe the scenarios as similar. There was low enthusiasm for these forced "third term" candidates and ultimately they lost to the other party who seemed much more enthusiastic for their candidates. Enthusiasm wins elections. Apathy and malaise loses them. And ultimately, the two sides ended up doing the same thing just about.
In 2020 the apathy was still there on the democratic side, and the enthusiasm for trump was still there, but it did seem like the dems trying to pander to moderates started to work, as enough people were alienated from the trump coalition to swing things back toward the democrats. Like...it seems sad, but the dems were able to derail the seemingly emerging coalition of progressives they had been building up to that point, going all in with centrism wins. But at the same time, this also kinda kept the trump coalition viable. Like....while the GOP seemed on the way out, it seemed like trump revived it.
But now, things are looking weird. I think lack of enthusiasm and malaise are at record highs in recent hsitory going into 2024. The parties are realigning, but we're getting the bad future. And it's in part because it's been happening inorganically. Like....we're pretty much an oligarchy and the leaders are trying to strong arm us into voting for their guys, rather than most people getting what they actually want. On the left, this means that the progressive elements of the democrats are being muted and suppressed in the face of DNC screwery and calls to "vote blue no matter who", and on the GOP side, it seems to take the form of the party being taken over by the psychos they've been cultivating for decades, and most people wanting to jump ship for the more "sane" alternative. But all in all, people are just mostly voting for lesser evils right now. Sure, enthusiastic trumpers exist, and it scares me, but they need moderates to win, and the moderates think the GOP is too extreme. That's actually driving moderates to the dems, which suits them perfectly, because they dont wanna be the good guys, just the moderate alternative. So in a sense, that voting pattern of people jumping ship from the GOP and voting for dems who are "moderate" is happening, but it doesnt seem like no one is happy about it. Even the moderates are like "come on cant we have a better option than this?" LIke, I dont feel like people LIKE biden, and actually LIKE moderate policies in practice. Because the moderate conservatives jumping ship really want conservative policies, and many progressives actually want increasingly progressive policies. And then people are focused on culture war nonsense. It seems like conservative voters are moderating on economics, wanting someone to, say, protect social security, not cut it, but at the same time, they care more about wokeness than that so they'll just scream over that. Meanwhile the left screams over transphobia and bigotry and ugh...we are in hell. THe biggest and most stark differences are on cultural issues these days, and while I'd argue the left will likely win long term, they once again tend to make themselves unattractive, causing them to make setbacks that cause the right to win crucial elections. But once the right governs, people don't like that either, so they swing back left.
It's like we're in an era where no one really knows what they want, but they hate where we are. I have ideas for where we should go, but my ideas are mostly outside of the overton window.
Anyway, I do realize it's not 2016 any more, and a lot of the energy for progressive candidates has evaporated, betwen the dems trying their darndest to kill that trend in its crib and them enabling the GOP to become even more extreme, but with a populist bend that resonates, it's like...we're screwed.
I really do with we could just hit a reset button and go back from 2012 again. Because in 2012, it seemed so simple to me. The GOP was bad, the left was good. And we needed to ultimately shift things to be more progressive over time. 2016 just set things in motion that have put us in a very dark place. I almost feel like our birthrights were stolen from us there. Like we should be in year 7 of a Bernie Sanders presidency with our forgiven student loans and universal healthcare and $15 minimum wage by now. We should be openly debating UBI as chatGPT and automation threaten jobs. Like, that is where I would LIKE to be, and where I feel like the country SHOULD be. But instead, we're...in hell. I hate this.
