Presidents don't control the economy...but...

 ....they can still screw it up if they do something really stupid. 

You know, like put tariffs on Mexico and Canada. The stock market is reacting to it and that isn't good. Look, normally, I'm very generous to presidents in macroeconomic terms. I neither give them credit for expansions that happen under their watch, nor do i typically fault them for market setbacks. Sometimes this stuff is inevitable, and the market is gonna market. Recessions are common, they're cyclical, they happen every 5-10 years. It's why I have the views I do. I realize that no matter how much we talk about "creating jobs", those golden eras of "full employment" like 1968 and 2021 are fleeting, and at most last only a few years. Generally speaking, we get a recession, it tanks the economy, unemployment goes up to 8%, and then it very slowly reduces itself until it eventually drops to 4-5%. And then we get another recession. It's literally a cycle. 

I don't typically judge presidents for their economic performance as, quite frankly, often recessions are caused by things beyond our control, or they're caused by wars ending (as per the above article), or they're caused by intentional design to combat inflation (see: 1982). Biden, actually did a good job navigating post COVID inflation. he had to rein in inflation, but he had to do it without causing a recession. It's like trying to navigate a ship between two icebergs, with one being inflation and the other being recession and he did it well. Despite this, the public still blamed him. 

So what do I judge presidents on? Policy. I believe that the economy is largely going to economy. My view is when a crisis happens, what do you do in response? If you get inflation, I normally expect interest rates to go up on the federal reserve end to fix it. If you get unemployment, we better see some keynesianism going on. And ideally, I think that we need to "recession proof" the american people with stronger safety nets as well. Honestly, if the government gave people a UBI, to me, it would matter less if we have recessions because people would meet their needs unconditionally anyway. The problem with an economy based on everyone working for a living is if people are thrown out of work, or there arent enough jobs, that presents a truly huge problem for society, doesn't it? Hence why over time I've given up on "job creation", recognizing that the economy is gonna economy, republican or democrat, and I care about policy. 

But occasionally, once in a great while, you'll get a president stupid enough to make the situation worse. You know, like Herbert Hoover with his Smoot Hawley Act, which was credited for deepening the great depression at the time. 

Let's read a little about this from wikipedia: 

The Tariff Act of 1930 (codified at 19 U.S.C. ch. 4), commonly known as the Smoot–Hawley Tariff or Hawley–Smoot Tariff,^[1] was a law that implemented protectionist trade policies in the United States. Sponsored by Senator Reed Smoot and Representative Willis C. Hawley, it was signed by President Herbert Hoover on June 17, 1930. The act raised US tariffs on over 20,000 imported goods.^[2]

The tariffs under the act, excluding duty-free imports, were the second highest in United States history, exceeded by only the Tariff of 1828.^[3] The act prompted retaliatory tariffs by many other countries.^[4] The act and tariffs imposed by America's trading partners in retaliation were major factors of the reduction of American exports and imports by 67% during the Great Depression.^[5] Economists and economic historians have agreed that the passage of the Smoot–Hawley Tariff worsened the effects of the Great Depression.^[6]

Wait...wait a second. TARIFFS? TARIFFS caused that? It caused a trade war with other countries? It deepened the great recession. Wait, what did trump just do again?

Jesus Christ...he just did a Hoover...

And now he's pulling back...at least for a month...

 Look. It's very well possible that no matter what Trump does, the bubble in his presidency is going to pop. We are sitting on top of a massive speculative bubble right now, and the economy is reminding me what how it looked in say, Bush's second term. You know, where everything is going well, but we're just sitting on a time bomb waiting to happen? Yeah. And it's very well possible that it's going to blow up on Trump's watch, no matter what he does. BUT....Tariffs can basically pop the bubble, and blow it up. And it seems like Trump's policies are angling at that. He's threatening to pop the bubble with his crazy policies. 

So yeah. With all of that said, I'm going to have to suspend my normal rule of not blaming presidents directly for economic recessions if he follows through on these policies. His trade war is going to be disastrous. And the worst part is, it's not even gonna create the jobs he wants. Like trump has this thing where it's like "I want to build stuff and create jobs here." But...all tariffs and trade wars do is inhibit growth and crash the economy.

Either way it's not like we need more jobs. We're already at full employment. If you wanna "make america great again", you need to focus on improving the jobs that we already have, like implementing regulations for better wages and working conditions, supporting unionization, and expanding the welfare state, NOT CUTTING IT, with policies like a basic income. 

If you're not even doing that, wtf are you actually doing other than enriching your billionaire buddies? *sigh*, this presidency is such a disaster...