So...this is a question someone asked, and it is a question that I think is worth discussing. I actually have a few theories myself. For the record, I'm talking RIGHT libertarians here. ya know, the Ron Paul stans who were popular around 2008-2012 but seem to have gotten far less active since then. Anyway, here's some ideas of mine.
1) They were never that big of a faction, just vocal
If you look at the actual voting share of the population, libertarians typically were around 1% of all voters. At least the ones who voted for the libertarian party. Sure there might have been more libertarians within the republicans, but they've always been a minority. They were more vocal online, ya know, like UBI supporters like me, rather than a force to be reckoned with.
That said, they arguably still exist. They still vote third party. Heck, they even ended up ruffling the feathers of Trumpers in 2020 when they lost, with some lobbing the same attacks the blue MAGA types lob at progressives and how they didn't fall in line and vote republican. And these guys would just be like "earn our votes."
2) They aged out
Libertarianism has always been that kind of ideology that sounds nice in theory but doesnt work in practice. It's always appealed exclusively to like white conservative college students and as someone who WAS one of them, I very clearly left the movement after the Tea Party started taking over and I turned on all of conservatism. Speaking of which...
3) Another casualty of 2016
In a way, the final legacy of the libertarian movement of the 2000s and early 2010s was always the Tea party. It was about getting conservatives back to their roots. it was the whole Reagan idea of "government is the problem and markets are the solution" taken to an extreme and it always represented this more pure version of constitutional conservatism that was trendy at the time. Basically, libertarianism was a consequence of Reaganism, when Reaganism went out of style, so did libertarianism. So it only really made sense as a zeitgeist for the time, and society shifted, people moved on.
4) They're MAGA now
Honestly, I think most of these guys just became MAGA. There's been talk of a libertarianism to fascism pipeline, and I think that this is actually a huge reason why they disappeared. A lot of these guys ALWAYS had a disdain for democracy. And they always, despite the name, had an authoritarian streak. And as they see it, the left threatens their "rights", and they are willing to use force and anti democratic measures to protect their rights. Basically, libertarians loop back around to supporting far right authoritarianism, which is why many of them ended up becoming monarchists, or fascists, or all kinds of weird loopy authoritarian types. And, as we're finding out in Trump's second term, with the likes of DOGE, the "dark enlightenment" people, the elon musk and palantir tech bro crap, smaller government often ends up just meaning returning to authoritarianism.
5) Alternatively: they're "liberals" now
I think there's a smaller group of people who instead transitioned to liberalism. But unlike me, who actually became a liberal/left libertarian, they ended up becoming the Lincoln project types where they were displaced by the republican party's fascist takeover, and are making their way to the democrats as these weird moderate neocon types. There aren't many of them, but the democrats seem deadset on bringing over disaffected conservatives into the movement, and these guys are prime targets. So a lot of these guys might just call themselves "independents". They might be part of Lincoln Project or "Forward", and yeah, they're kinda taking over the democrats as well as they seem to kiss up to corporate moderates at the expensive of their left flank.
I dont think there's many of them. but to be fair, there weren't that many libertarians to begin with. I mean, Ron Paul voters were always only like 5-10% of the republican base. And again, if most of them were absorbed back into the base and became MAGA, well, yeah, you're talking like minute amounts of voters here.
6) What about me?
So...I WAS one of these guys once. To summarize my own political journey, I'll say this.
2004-2006ish- My fundie Christian days. Basically one of the Christian nationalist nuts who are still a huge part of the party.
2006-2007- Moderating due to going to college, become more libertarian.
2008-2010- Conservative/libertarian- Huge ron paul stan. Was also like a 20-22 year old college student at the time.
2011-2012- Kinda realized something was wrong with conservatism as my entire worldview shifted from Christianity toward New Atheism. Caused me to become very progressive left.
2012-2014- Rebuilding my own ideology. Became a social libertarian. Think proto-Yang gang but with more populist/bernie impulses.
2014-present- Been some version of that since. There's been moments where I've identified as more "leftist" (2017-2019 for example), there have been times I identified as more moderate, but ultimately, my views have mostly been my views. And if I go back and read what I wrote 10 years ago, I still agree with like 95% of it. I had SOME bad takes once in a while, but eh, at this point it's evolution and not revolution.
Given I AM a social libertarian, can I say my former libertarian phase had an impact in that? Sure. I mean, in a way, I'm still a libertarian, I just evolved. And I do think that some former libertarians were Yang gang in 2020. However, I also dont think this is most people. I honestly am most inclined to say that most of them probably became MAGA of some kind, or they still exist, they're just less vocal given the MAGA direction of the party. Like as a block I dont think they shrank much. I mean, in 2024 they seemed to lose like half to two thirds their normal supporters, but to be fair, third party votes ebb and flow depending on how tied people feel to the party duopoly, and to be fair, they also might've been RFK supporters this time around too. Ya know a lot of third party voters actually voted for RFK despite him dropping out and endorsing trump. Yeah....
So....I guess they're mostly MAGA? Yeah, they're probably mostly MAGA now. That's my final answer.
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