Election Update 10/20: Return to the mean or beginning of the decline?

So, new polls numbers released in the last week seemed to reverse a lot of the trends that Biden had going for him. He was up by double digits, and it looked like he had a commanding lead in the electoral college. Biden is still in a fairly strong position, but looking at realclearpolitics' polling data, Biden appears to be in free fall in some areas of the country, losing several points in key states vs last week. While he still maintains his electoral college lead mostly, the race is much more narrow, and he's only winning by 3-4 points in the electoral college rather than by 6-7 last week. That's not good. Regardless, probability is still on his side, but if he continues like this, like Clinton did in 2016, he might be in for a bad time. He currently is tracking similarly to Hillary in 2016....

National popular vote: Biden +8.6%

4 Way: Biden +7.6%

Biden still seems to have a commanding lead in the popular vote. It's less than last week, but it's still very significant. Regardless of what is happening in the electoral college, Biden is in a very strong position in regard to the popular vote. However, the popular vote isn't what wins elections. The electoral college does. Let's see what he's doing there.

Changes: Minnesota declined a bit to 6.3%, after being up 8-10 points for several weeks. This puts it in swing state status. On the flip side, we finally have a decent Alaska poll and I'm deciding to include it too. Much like Missouri and South Carolina I HIGHLY doubt it will flip and most keep these states outside of "swing" status because the "fundamentals" there lean heavily conservative, but my model is JUST focusing on the statistics, and if it's below 8 or so points, I think it's a good idea to include it. That said, this race appears to be tightening up with more states in the swing category overall. This brings Biden down to 216 starting electoral votes and Trump down to 103.

States	Winner/Margin	Z score	% D Win	% R Win	EV D win	EV R win
Michigan	Biden +7.3%	-1.825	96.6%	3.4%	232	322
Nebraska CD2	Biden +6.5%	-1.625	94.8%	5.2%	233	306
Minnesota	Biden +6.3%	-1.575	94.2%	5.8%	243	305
Wisconsin	Biden +6.2%	-1.550	93.9%	6.1%	253	295
Nevada	Biden +5.2%	-1.300	90.3%	9.7%	259	285
Pennsylvania	Biden +3.8%	-0.950	82.9%	17.1%	279	279
Arizona	Biden +3.1%	-0.775	78.1%	21.9%	290	259
North Carolina	Biden +2.0%	-0.500	69.1%	30.9%	305	248
Iowa	Biden +1.2%	-0.300	61.8%	38.2%	311	233
Georgia	Biden +1.2%	-0.300	61.8%	38.2%	327	227
Florida	Biden +1.0%	-0.250	59.9%	40.1%	356	211
Maine CD2	Biden +0.3%	-0.075	53.0%	47.0%	357	182
Ohio	Trump +0.2%	+0.050	52.0%	48.0%	375	181
Texas	Trump +4.4%	+1.100	13.6%	86.4%	413	163
Alaska	Trump +6.0%	+1.500	6.7%	93.3%	416	125
South Carolina	Trump +6.3%	+1.575	5.8%	94.2%	425	122
Missouri	Trump +7.5%	+1.875	3.0%	97.0%	435	113

Let's unpack this a bit. Yes, Biden still has, on paper, a commanding lead. If the election went perfectly, as the odds predict, Biden will go 357 to Trump's 181. However, it's a very SOFT lead, if that makes sense, at least compared to last week. As we know in 2016, I predicted Hillary would win 272-266. Then Trump overperformed by about 2-3 points statistically. Many of those states, such as Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, etc., are in that range. And they're big states. If Trump overperforms by 2 points, he has 248 electoral votes to Biden's 290. From there, say things get weird like in 2016 where he pulls in Pennsylvania, which is only up 3.8, and either Arizona, Nevada or another rust belt state like Wisconsin. Good night, Biden. A lot of people are acting like this is over, it's all locked up. No, we're 2 weeks from the election. Hillary took a similar path where she fell apart shortly before election day. I do believe there are mitigating factors to this outcome like mail in voting, but if things are off a little bit, the outcome could change a lot. Meanwhile I don't think Biden can really gain much more than he already has. He could win back Ohio which is currently a coin flip, but the odds of him flipping Texas is about the odds of Trump actually winning the election outright. Alaska, South Carolina, and Missouri are only included for formality's sake. 

Regardless, statistically, a Trump victory is not that high yet. Biden has a 82.9% chance of winning and Trump has a 17.1% chance. This might not seem like a lot, but Trump is almost 3x more likely to win than he was last week (17% chance vs 6% chance), so that is a fairly big swing. Still, Biden holds a huge statistical advantage. The nightmare scenario above is only the worst cast scenario. Of course that worst case scenario has happened before so I felt the need to discuss the possibility of it happening again.

Senate forecast

I'm removing the Texas race as it is no longer competitive. We're back to a 46-46 baseline.

States	Winner/Margin	Z score	% D Win	% R Win	Seats D win	Seats R win
Minnesota	Smith + 7.2%	-1.800	96.4%	3.6%	47	54
Iowa	Greenfield +4.8%	-1.200	88.5%	11.5%	48	53
Michigan	Peters +4.3%	-1.075	85.9%	14.1%	49	52
Maine	Gideon +4.2%	-1.050	85.3%	14.7%	50	51
North Carolina	Cunningham +3.2%	-0.800	78.8%	21.2%	51	50
Georgia	Perdue +0.9%	+0.225	41.1%	58.9%	52	49
South Carolina	Graham +2.3%	+0.575	28.3%	71.7%	53	48
Montana	Daines +3.3%	+0.825	20.5%	79.5%	54	47

All in all, the democrats still hold a 78.8% chance of winning the senate, while republicans hold a 14.7% chance. The chance of a tie is 6.5%. This has shifted slightly in the republicans' favor, but is very similar to last week's predictions overall. All in all, the map looks like this.

That said, there have been some interesting changes in the presidential race at least. Biden's lead has started to erode, and while this could be due to a lot of mundane reasons. Bad polling, simply regressing to the mean as Trump recovers from COVID, it is a cause for concern to me. If I did not experience 2016, I would not think much of it, but I remember Hillary followed almost the same exact trajectory. We won't know for another few days or even a week if this is, indeed, a meaningful shift, but it is cause for alarm if you want Biden to win. 

On the flip side, the senate races barely changed at all. A few races got more competitive, like Minnesota and Georgia, but on the flip side, others got less so, such as Graham's seat in South Carolina. Not a lot has fundamentally changed here. 

 That's all folks, see you next week, or in a few days if I feel like doing another one of these and the conditions justify it. 

Mid October Election Predictions (10/13)

So it's been two weeks. A lot has happened since then. Trump had an awful debate where he just yelled over Biden and Biden seemed kinda weak in response. Then another debate where Pence tried a similar strategy with Harris and it didn't work well. And then Trump got COVID and recovered, and likely had it at the debate. It hasn't been a good two weeks for Trump. And polling reflects that. Biden is now in a very strong position to win, overtaking anything I predicted in 2016 with Hillary. While democrats shouldn't claim victory just yet because remember 2016, it's looking very good for Biden and I don't see how Trump can realistically recover. That said let's look at the data.

 General Election - Biden +10.0%

 4 Way -  Biden +8.8%

Now keep in mind, I don't think a spoiler effect exists here, rather the polling averages haven't shifted as much in the 4 way from last time due to less polling. Still, in both matchups, Biden has a commanding lead outside of a 4 point margin of error. The 2 way results report double digits between Biden and Trump. In both the 2 way and 4 way polls, Biden is at 51.6%, which means even if Trump won every undecided vote and third party vote at this point, he still can't win and would top out around 48%. Yikes. I'd say it's over, but hey, remember 2016.

 For the swing states, I'm removing New Hampshire from my analysis  because it's up by 10.5%, outside of the margin of error. It will be assumed "safe" for the purposes of this analysis as the chance for Trump to win it is under 2%. As for the rest:

States	Winner/Margin	Z Score	% Biden Win	% Trump Win	Electoral Votes if Biden Wins	Electoral Votes if Trump Wins
Pennsylvania	Biden +7.0%	-1.750	96.0%	4.0%	246	312
Michigan	Biden +7.0%	-1.750	96.0%	4.0%	262	292
Nebraska CD2	Biden +6.5%	-1.625	94.8%	5.2%	263	276
Wisconsin	Biden +6.3%	-1.575	94.3%	5.7%	273	275
Nevada	Biden +5.2%	-1.300	90.3%	9.7%	279	265
Florida	Biden +3.5%	-0.875	81.0%	19.0%	308	259
Arizona	Biden +2.7%	-0.675	75.1%	24.9%	319	230
North Carolina	Biden +2.7%	-0.675	75.1%	24.9%	334	219
Iowa	Biden +1.2%	-0.300	62.0%	38.0%	340	204
Ohio	Biden +0.6%	-0.150	56.0%	44.0%	358	198
Maine CD2	Trump +0.2%	+0.050	48.0%	52.0%	359	180
Georgia	Trump +0.4%	+0.100	46.0%	54.0%	375	179
Texas	Trump +4.4%	+1.100	13.6%	86.4%	413	163
South Carolina	Trump +5.5%	+1.375	8.5%	91.5%	422	125
Missouri	Trump +7.5%	+1.875	3.0%	97.0%	432	116

Ouch. Biden has a 94.3% chance of winning and Trump only has a 5.7% chance. A Biden win is just short of statistical significance. Now, again, does that mean he will DEFINITELY win? Well, many ballots are being cast now. And I doubt Trump can regain the energy he lost. Even if he regresses to the mean and gains say, 3-4 points, he would only be at 259 electoral votes with Florida. You'd literally need a Trump +6-7 scenario for him to WIN, which is extremely unlikely. Like, 4-7% level unlikely. Trump is toast. The electoral map is a commanding 358-180 win for Biden.

I mean, for reference, the highest I ever gave Hillary by this methodology is like a 85% chance, with Trump having a 15% chance. And Hillary's numbers fluctuated a lot with her going into the 50s. A bad day for Biden is a good day for Hillary. 

Now, how does the senate look?

Well for starters I added Texas into the mix as it's now technically "in play". I don't expect it to go red as it's barely in play but it's worth looking at. This brings the GOP's "safe senators down to 45. 

States	Winner/ Margin	Z Score	% Dem Win	% GOP Win	Senate Seats if Democrat Wins	Senate Seats if Republican Wins
Arizona	Kelly +8.0%	-2.000	97.7%	2.3%	47	54
North Carolina	Cunningham +5.7%	-1.425	92.3%	7.7%	48	53
Michigan	Peters +4.9%	-1.225	89.0%	11.0%	49	52
Iowa	Greenfield +4.8%	-1.200	88.5%	11.5%	50	51
Maine	Gideon +3.7%	-0.925	82.3%	17.7%	51	50
South Carolina	Graham +0.5%	+0.125	45.0%	55.0%	52	49
Georgia	Perdue +2.8%	+0.700	24.2%	75.8%	53	48
Montana	Daines +3.3%	+0.825	20.5%	79.5%	54	47
Texas	Cornyn +7.6%	+1.900	2.8%	97.2%	55	46

Based on this, the democrats have an 82.3% chance of winning the senate by the trend model. The republicans have a 11.5% chance by comparison. This means there's a 6.2% chance it's a 50-50 split. This is up from last time for the democrats, but is still far less certain than what will happen with the presidency.

All in all, it looks like the GOP are screwed. As I said I ain't even doing the house, but I doubt that is particularly going well for them either given they need virtually all swing seats just to achieve a narrow majority. Yikes. While we still have 3 weeks and a lot can change, this looks like a blow out for the democratic party. Bye Trump, you're fired! Or you will be a month from now, probably. 

For the record I'm probably gonna be doing these more frequently between now and the election. We're getting close so I'll likely be doing them once a week now unless literally almost nothing changes, and I will especially be paying close attention in the last week or two leading up to the election. If things change, I want it to be documented here so we can analyze what happens.

VP Debate opinions

 So, this time Mike Pence and Kamala Harris had a debate last night. I won't go on about it long, but I feel like this is a good follow up to last week. Long story short, my initial reaction was that Harris won commandingly. And here's why.

Mike Pence had similar talking points to Donald Trump but was less likely to talk over everyone else. This made him appear weaker than Trump last week, because both Trump and Pence have literally nothing to work with. Pence's strategy was to lob every wild accusation and attack at Harris, and almost none of them hit. Pence also dodged and evaded virtually every question thrown at him. While I argued Trump won last week because I feel like he controlled the narrative of the debate, Pence failed to do that. The attempted blows did not connect and made Pence seem unhinged, and he had little to offer of substance for himself.

On the other hand Kamala Harris had it together. She was very aggressive relative to Biden and had good answers to most questions. She dodged a few, such as the court packing one, but she ultimately did a very good job at defending Biden's platform. She was calm, in control, and when Pence tried to talk over her a couple times like Trump did, she handled him like an adult handles a child. She said I'm speaking and then went on with it.

That said, I feel like Harris' performance was very much improved from Biden's last week and reached the peak I expected from the ticket, while Pence performed more like I expected Trump to last week and while he didn't fall apart, he dodged, lied, and obfuscated his way through it. 

Now, the real question is who the public thinks won. I was surprised to learn after watching Trump vs Biden that a lot of people didn't like Trump's performance. Honestly, this is a bias on my own part, I tend to think the American public particularly undecided voters aren't very informed, and go with "who sounds better". Biden came off as weak and uninspiring, Trump was very aggressive and dominated the discussion, and normally I would suspect most neutral parties would go for the person with a better debate form who controlled the debate. Instead people wanted their 1.5 hours back and said Biden won...if anyone. Most were just too frustrated with the whole affair. 

This time, it seems a lot more...mixed. A lot of people suddenly like Pence but think Harris was overbearing or something. WHAT?! Admittedly there was a bit of a gender gap, with mostly males thinking this, and it seemed to be an instance of sexism, but I did NOT get that at all when I watched that. To me Harris was in control whereas last week Biden was not. Pence lost control and since the Trump/Pence ticket literally has nothing but shady debate tactics, I actually gave them a lot of credit. But to see the opposite reaction this week with backlash against Harris is weird to me. Almost makes me feel like the Hillbots in 2016 had a point with some voters. To be fair the polling shifted back toward Harris, but it seems to largely be along the lines of who people are voting for anyway, with people preferring the candidate they're closer to them. 

But yeah, it's weird. I admit I'm more likely to be democratic party bias, but I really don't like either. As I've stated many times I voted Stein in 2016 and I'm voting Hawkins this time. I really don't like either party and while democrats are better than republicans, to me I just see "crazy republican vs moderate republican." And I generally grade debate performance based on who I think did a better job regardless of party affiliation. I've seen people I agree with flop in debates. I've seen people I can't stand win. If I felt Pence did a good job I would've said so, but I felt like Harris was just far more substantive and that Pence seemed evasive and his wild accusations didn't connect. I felt Trump pushed Biden into a corner last week and Biden didn't really respond strongly, but here I felt the roles were reversed. And it's strange, the public actually hated Trump last week and some people disliked Harris this week. I just don't get it. I mean with Harris it appears to be a legit case of actual sexism at work, but I guess that aggression doesn't work if you come off as childish like Trump does either? We'll have to see I guess.

Anyway I'm tempted to make another election forecast but I'll wait another week. Biden has gained a lot of ground in the past week between the debate and Trump getting COVID, but at the same time I don't know if this lead will be permanent or is just a fluctuation. We'll have to see. Probably will make and release it next Tuesday as that seems to be when tons of polls from the weekend and previous week come in. I don't want to make something only for it to not be relevant in 2 days.