Wednesday, April 14, 2021

Breaking down Biden's major economic plans so far

So, we have had a chance to see how Biden is doing with his economic plans, and I want to take some time to analyze how he's doing so far.

Stimulus bill

So, Biden's first big signature accomplishment is the $1.9 trillion stimulus bill. Man that's a lot of money, let's look at what's in it. To summarize:

$1400 checks

$300/week unemployment extension

Child tax credit

COVID tests/vaccines

Funds to reopen schools

Support for business

Funds for local governments

Help for paid leave and health insurance

Okay, so...general thoughts. If we broke this plan down into just a flat UBI payment for all adults, it would amount to just short of $7500 a person. This bill is okay, but it really could be better. For the most part, it is a huge band aid. This money will be spent and gone in only a few months, and Biden won't have a ground breaking legacy at changing the economy with it. Most of the help is means tested. You need to file taxes to get the check and it only applies to people making under $75,000. The unemployment extension only applies to people who get unemployment, and is additional aid to those already getting checks. I don't like this idea much simply because by adding requirements to it, it not only makes it exclusive, but it also discourages people from finding work. Not that I have anything against people not working, but this is doing it in a way where if you work you lose benefits, which is doubly prohibitive. Like, this is standard democratic stuff. The idea of helping everyone doesn't really cross their mind so they talk a big game with a massive band aid.

One thing I do think stands out somewhat is the child tax credit. Again, tax credit, not a UBI, but it's...kind of close. And this is the one thing I think Biden wants to be permanent. This makes me happy because it basically is a mini UBI for kids. It's still a band aid on a gunshot wound, but hey, at least we're moving in some positive direction here. 

Other than that I'm kind of lukewarm. Some stuff is just, standard. COVID tests/vaccines, yeah, needed. Funds to reopen schools, what?! I mean, really, I don't get why Biden is so obsessed with opening schools this school year. Do it in August/September, dude. The virus is still active, most people aren't vaccinated, kids definitely aren't vaccinated. 

Beyond that, I just can't help but think that this plan would be far better if they just did a UBI trial balloon here. Maybe make the payments $5000-6000 instead of $1400 (perhaps spread over 5-6 months?, UBI trial anyone?), and then spend the rest on the other stuff needed. Otherwise this just seems like a lot of money that goes toward just...maintaining a crappy status quo. I get it. Democrats dont believe in fundamentally changing the economy, and they largely don't believe in UBI and my long term anti work goals. Biden believes "work has dignity" after all. 

I mean, at least we got a partial UBI for kids out of this. That's something. 

Infrastructure Bill

So this is where the real meat and potatoes comes in, and Biden has a $4 trillion infrastructure bill. It should be noted that's $4 trillion over 10 years, so $400 billion a year, people tend to post misleading costs with this. This would be paid for with improvements to the corporate tax code and stuff like that. 

I'm going to be honest, I actually like this bill somewhat. It's not as progressive as I would like as our tax code used to be much higher on corporations, but he also fixes a lot of problems with corporations dodging taxes too, so it's not bad. 

People are going to be disappointed the infrastructure bill is not much bigger, but I'm actually pleased with Biden being a bit more moderate on this one. And here's why. I've never been big on the idea of massive jobs programs. I don't want to solve our economic issues via jobs programs like the green new deal. However, I also recognize that we do need these infrastructure improvements, we need to make our infrastructure more green, and it does need to be updated. This is, from an economic perspective, a band aid. But that's all I really support from a jobs program anyway. Because the purpose of work is to do things. We need things done, this program does things. It's not a permanent solution. But that's okay. That's all I want. A mild program done for 10 years, to update everything, and then focus on UBI.

This is also, by the way, why I supported Bernie in 2020 over Yang. I liked Yang, but besides backing off of healthcare, I also recognized that the urgency of climate change was something that needs to be addressed now, and I was willing to give the Bernie approach a try to fix it. This is the Bernie approach scaled down in a way to be leaner and meaner. It might not be as effective at providing jobs and ending poverty from an economic standpoint, but that's okay. That's what UBI is for for me, jobs programs are a band aid.

Conclusion

I mean, Biden has been a let down on many things for me. He hasn't passed a minimum wage, he isn't moving on student loan cancellation, his healthcare plans are pathetic, but I have to say he isn't doing a terrible job so far. He is clearly moving in ways to at least try to make the Bernie crowd like him. His stimulus plan is okay, although outside of potentially the child tax credit, it lacks a legacy and is a largely a massive means tested band aid. His infrastructure bill is something I can live with. Will he earn my vote in 2024? It remains to be seen, but I'm gonna be honest, it depends who else runs. I'm not really aligned with the Biden administration, but I can say a couple good things about it once in a while. The stimulus is a 6/10 from me and the infrastructure bill is a solid 9/10. Let's see what else he tries to do.

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