So, as discussed in my previous article on laffer curves, having a full UBI with full medicare for all is not going to be practical. Assuming a 70% laffer curve rate, with a 47% top marginal tax rate currently, and medicare for all raising taxes by 11%, we have a 12% marginal tax rate to play around with to make a basic income work. My current full basic income plan would have a 20% flat tax to fund it, along side spending cuts, and shifting this down to my old $12,000 numbers shifted this to 17%. That said I'm going to see what kind of basic income I can get with 12% funding.
Adjusting my model to 12%
Assuming a $13.291 trillion tax base to draw from, we can raise $1.595 trillion in this way. With the $187 billion carbon tax, $156 billion in military cuts, and $291 billion in welfare cuts from my original proposal, we can raise an additional $634 billion, bringing us up to $2.229 trillion. Roughly targeting the $9000/3000 numbers with social security cuts from my overall scaling proposal, reducing social security by 19%, we could raise $220 billion, bringing us up to $2,449 trillion. This would yield, roughly, $9,138 for adults and $3,045 for children. Might as well say $9,000/3,000.
However, let's say we wanted to get the adult benefit up to $10,000. Would it be possible?
Well, an additional $1000 a month would cost $244 billion or so. It could be possible to raise that from Elizabeth Warren's wealth tax, which could bring in as little as $100 billion and as much as $375 billion.
More military spending cuts could bring in an extra $100 billion.
Shifting the social security budget cuts from 19% to 21% could bring in an additional $23 billion.
Assuming a median of $188 billion from the wealth tax, and the additional $123 billion, we could bring in $311 billion, which should be enough to fund an extra $1000 a year. And also perhaps boost the children's benefit a bit too. After all an additional $333 a year would be $23 billion, so it could be done.
That said, I would say we could fund up to a maximum of $10000/$3333 a year, although it may be more comfortable to stick with $9000/$3000.
This would only be around 2/3-3/4 of what my original proposal is, but again, this is the limits of feasibility given a full M4A plan. If you want a higher UBI, you will need to pursue a public option rather than medicare for all.
How would this affect people? ($9,000/3,000)
Single adult, no job
UBI: $9,000
Wages: $0
Taxes: $0
Net Income: $9,000
Single adult, minimum wage
UBI: $9,000
Wages: $15,080
Taxes: $1,810
Net Income:$22,270 (48% increase in income)
Single adult, median income ($36,000)
UBI:$9,000
Wages: $36,000
Taxes: $4,320
Net Income: $40,680 (13% increase in income)
Single adult,break even point ($75,000)
UBI: $9,000
Wages: $75,000
Taxes: $9,000
Net Income: $75,000
Single adult, $100,000
UBI: $9,000
Wages: $100,000
Taxes: $12,000
Net Income: $97,000 (3% effective tax rate)
Single adult, $250,000
UBI: $9,000
Wages: $250,000
Taxes: $30,000
Net Income: $229,000 (8.4% effective tax rate)
Family of four (2 adults, 2 children), no job
UBI: $24,000 ($9000*2 + $3000*2)
Wages: $0
Taxes: $0
Net Income: $24,000
Family of four, median income ($69,000)
UBI: $24,000
Wages: $69,000
Taxes: $8,280
Net Income: $84,720 (22.7% increase in income)
Family of four, break even point ($200,000)
UBI: $24,000
Wages: $200,000
Taxes: $24,000
Net Income: $200,000
Family of four, $500,000
UBI: $24,000
Wages: $500,000
Taxes: $60,000
Net Income: $464,000 (7.2% effective tax rate)
Two average social security recipients ($3086/month)
UBI: $18,000
Social Security: $37,032
Cuts: $7,036
Net Income: $47,996 (29.6% increase in income)
Two social security recipients, maximum benefit ($7,790/month)
UBI: $18,000
Social Security: $93,480
Cuts: $17,761
Net Income: $93,719 (0.3% increase in income)
Discussion
Honestly, I like this plan better than my $6000 plan, but still obviously prefer a "full" UBI. Still. It's a progressive plan. I like it. And if it works with medicare for all, it's something. I just don't like it because I would like a full UBI above the poverty rate if possible. But, assuming we can't do both medicare for all AND basic income sustainably, I could live with this. Still, I may be looking at the public option in the future and weighing its pros and cons.
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