Lessons learned from examining who I would vote for in every election

 So, after reflecting upon yesterday's experiment, I drew some interesting conclusions about American politics, that I feel like discussion today.

1) The length of a political realignment is gradually lengthening

It's been speculated that party alignments are due to life cycle effects and generations dying out and being replaced with other generations of people. This seems in line with that, since the first two alignments only lasted 8 elections. The second two lasted 9 elections. The fifth one lasted twelve elections, and assuming 2016 doesn't retroactively get considered a realignment (I don't think it is and I'll get to that soon), this one is looking to last twelve or more elections, and has already gone on for 11. 

2) Alignments start out relatively good, but begin to suck

The first several elections tend to unite the country behind a certain consensus. We might see one party control government for up to 20 years. This was especially true when Lincoln and Roosevelt took over and ushered in a realignment. But those consensuses never last and parties start to break apart as the alignment goes on. 

3) The second half of an alignment tends to suck

After the administration that creates a new alignment and perhaps a successor of two that tend to ride on its coattails, the alignment quickly goes south and becomes less and less responsive to peoples' needs. We start seeing fracturing coalitions and increased third party support as things begin to fall apart. The last three or so elections of an alignment tend to suck and have no good choices. The last election might even devolve into a four way election between various factions within vying for power. 

4) "Big tent" coalitions rarely last

This is a cautionary tale for democrats, who love to push their "big tent" philosophy on constituents. The democratic republicans had a big tent, and their coalition ended up splitting three ways in 1824, for example. This also happened to the new deal coalition that had dixiecrats and progressives splintering off in the 1940s and 1960s. The fact is, when parties get too big, they tend to develop conflicts of interest, leading to groups breaking off.

5) The two parties are horridly unresponsive at dealing with important issues

Democrats today love to act like changes are done incrementally, but this does not seem to be the case. Parties can go back and forth for decades arguing over minutae and minor issues that, in the grand scheme of things make no sense. Jacksonian democrats and whigs went back and forth arguing over things like decorum and incrementalist policies surrounding slavery. The third alignment post reconstruction was dominated by discussions over tariffs and coinage of metals. Populists and progressives in the fourth alignment argued over band aids on the gaping hole that is capitalism as it exists. The modern alignment, well, just read this blog. 

The fact is, real issues can fester for decades and never be addressed by the major parties, who tend to avoid them due to corruption, monied interests, or simply not caring about the plight of people. 

6) Third parties often arise to deal with major issues not being addressed by the major parties, and can often be way ahead of their time

Abolitionist parties arose as early as the 1840s, with the whigs and democrats arguing over bullcrap incremental shifts in thinking. Progressive and socialist parties arose in the 1870s and 1880s and remained a constant part of politics well into the 1920s. They argued for banning child labor, safety regulations, and an 8 hour work day, things we accept as standard today, but weren't implemented until FDR. 

Honestly, I feel vindicated in my choice to vote for third parties. I might be 20-60 years ahead of my time at times, but those issues did get addressed eventually and those who voted third party were often on the right side of history, even if they weren't popular at the time.

7) Some alignments always suck

The second alignment is an awful alignment in my opinion. It ultimately ended in civil war, in my opinion, because it just never did anything. Every election in that era seemed terrible. I have literally nothing good to say about that era of politics. 

8) Some third parties always suck too

While progressive third parties are often ultimately on the right side of history, many of them were terrible. While the socialist and progressive parties of the 1880s-1920s were a thing, so was the prohibition party who focused on banning alcohol. What a disaster that was. One major third party during the first and second alignment was an anti masonic party. Seems kind of Alex Jones-ey, but okay. The dixiecrats were obviously terrible. The libertarian party seems to have been a Koch project to bring back extreme right wing ideals from pre 5th alignment back into the spotlight. So just because third parties can be ahead of their time doesn't mean they're always right. 

9) We are heading toward a realignment, but we are not there yet

I don't know how this is going to turn out, but I believe that we are heading toward a political realignment right now. I've been saying it since I started this in 2016. However, I do have to somewhat update my own views on where we are. I believe the new tentative realignment date is 2028 or 2032. We are in the tail end "this sucks" aspect of our current alignment. And I've been noticing since 2016 there are four major factions in American politics. You have: establishment republicans, establishment democrats, Trumpers, and Berniecrats. 

There can be various sub groups too, for example, Yang Gang, libertarians, but the ones I mentioned are the four big ones.

I suspect both parties will likely fall into civil war before we see a new alignment. The current situation is a powder keg, and something has to give. The big tent coalition of the democrats is just too big and there is going to be a rift between the Berniecrats and the neoliberal faction of the democratic party. And we're already seeing Trumpers appearing to get ready for war with establishment republicans and conservatives.

This is not necessarily a bad thing. These issues NEED to be worked out for the long standing well being of our democracy. We need to have these four factions air their grievances so that they can shift and move around and form the two parties we will have for the next 40-50 years. I just hope we don't end up with alignment 2 electric boogaloo again. Because Trump reminds me of Jacksonian democrats, and the modern centrist democrats are starting to sound like the whigs. Which brings me to another thing.

10) Removed from their immediate historical context, a lot of dirty politics ends up seeming horribly minor and immature

Reading about people hating so and so in 2021, when so and so has been dead for over a century makes me realize how little traditional political infighting matters. People are getting so hyped up over Trump this and Trump that, but at the end of the day, Trump is just gonna be another Andrew Jackson or something. And no one is gonna care. Same with riling people up over foreign threats. It almost never pans out. Who cares if Adams or Jefferson seem to close to France or England? I mean it all seems awfully petty, but the parallels between today and those political fights are uncanny. We really waste energy on too much bullcrap that doesn't matter. 

11) In retrospect I always should have been against the democrats

Honestly, tracing democratic party history post 1968 just, frustrates and enrages me. I knew it would. But the party was always hostile to progressives, always took them for granted, and then moved to the center and ignored them. You could argue it was necessary in the 1990s, but given how they refuse to budge left in a meaningful way, and how they're trying to welcome Reaganite suburbanite types into the party, yeah, they need to get the wind taken out of their sails. While I would have staged my rebellion against them in 2016, I really should have been against the democrats from 1996 on in my hypothetical. I just acknowledge that the times might have caused me to temper my expectations in order to protect the new deal legacy. But given modern democrats seem to have a hate boner for FDR these days for many many reasons, yeah, it just makes me realize how far we have fallen from grace in that sense.

That said, that's what I learned from this. It really helps me look at today's situation with more clarity, and you know what? I feel like I was right all along. It is a good thing to support third parties, reject the democrats, etc. This is healthy for democracy. I feel justified in my refusal to support them, now more than ever. We really are like maybe 7 years from a realignment, and the left needs to do everything it can to throw its power around do we don't get stuck in a bad alignment that doesn't serve us.