So...I've largely been avoiding this topic because I hate being dragged into foreign policy spats, but there's been a lot of controversy over the situation with Russia potentially looking to invade. And, here's my TLDR opinion: It's all posturing, don't worry about it, go home. Seriously, Russia loves to do these strong man tactics with the west, especially with its border neighbors.
To understand the situation, you gotta understand the history of Ukraine. I'm under the impression that for much of its history, it's kind of been a disputed territory, essentially translating literally to "the borderlands", and basically being a borderland to Russia. It was apparently given statehood in 1848, but was invaded by the Bolsheviks in 1917 and became a soviet republic in 1922, and part of the USSR proper. Then in WWII the Soviets extended their reach all the way to Eastern Germany, while the western allies extended to West Germany, and thus, this became the foundation for the cold war. That said, during the Cold War, we can see a view of Europe in this way, with one side being allied, and the other being soviet.
Basically, Europe was geopolitically divided into two major blocs, which were built around mutual defense pacts. NATO in the west, and Warsaw in the east. And notice how the core USSR has a lot of satellite states around it. A lot of meat sheilds that prevent the allies from invading Russia directly.
Well, as we know, the cold war ended, the USSR broke apart, and in the years since, the balance of power has tipped in the region, with the map now looking like this. Look at how far east the blue has extended. And look at how states bordering Russia like Ukraine and Georgia are considering joining NATO.
That's why Russia is angry. Russia wants to look out for Russia. And part of its national security strategy involves keeping those border states around it more under its own sphere of influence. This is why Russia will occasionally invade these countries, like in 2008 (Georgia invasion) or 2014 (where Russia invaded and took over a tip of the Ukraine). The 2014 one was interesting because the reason Russia wanted that tip of the Ukraine was because it wanted the port. Russia, despite being surrounded by oceans, has no warm water port. Since they're in the arctic circle, they freeze, and their ports are unreliable. And given how global trade is the lifeblood of the world these days, and given how the US could effectively block global trade out by relying on its allies near Russia, the US is now in a position, post cold war, to be able to shut russia down whenever it wants. it can surround it with military bases in NATO friendly nations, and and it can shut down its trade routes, damaging the country economically.
Russia does not like being in this state of dependence. They dont like the idea of the US being able to do this. So, they tend to lash out sometimes. And then they threaten to invade, and then they build up troops, and we build up troops, and hopefully nothing happens because actual invasion could lead to all out conflict, but sometimes Russia will do so. And then the US is faced with a hard position, what do we do about it?
I mean, if we fight back, it's WW3. And a lot of out agreements with the rest of the world are based on the idea that if a country we're sworn to protect gets invaded, we will fight. Now, we have no formal agreement with Ukraine, if anything that's what this is about. Russia doesn't want Ukraine to be part of NATO, because then we WOULD be required to defend them. And now they're potentially looking to invade.
So...Russia invades, what do we do about it? I don't have an answer. Quite frankly, I'm just hoping that the people in charge on both sides can figure out a way to avoid that scenario. If they invade, and we do nothing, we look weak. I want to remind people that Russia here is looking a lot like the Nazis in 1938. Hitler invaded the Sudetenland, and it was controversial. There were arguments claiming it was originally part of Germany and should be part of Germany, and then Neville Chamberlain negotiated with Hitler and let him have it, and proclaimed there was "peace in his time". Except...then Germany invaded Poland, and everyone else, and WWII began.
So appeasing dictators like Putin when they want to invade countries is BAD. That's literally how WWII happened. Hitler decided to invade, the allies, tired of war, didn't bother calling him on it, and then they were dragged into war anyway. If Russia invades Ukraine and we do nothing, they might decide to go after other countries nearby. They might sense weakness and start invading stuff until we basically push back and say NO.
But, at the same time, in this post 1945 world, we have another added factor: nukes. I mean, if we go at it and Russia goes at it, thats WWIII. And you DO NOT want WWIII. WWII was destructive enough, imagine how much destruction could be had if the US, along with allied powers like Germany, France, and the UK, which all have pretty large militaries themselves, decide to go at it with Russia? While the allies would probably win, imagine how many lives would be lost in the process, and if it goes nuclear, well, it's gonna go south in a BIG way.
I'm gonna be honest, i think we would win the conflict, but the thing is, it would be a bit of a pyrrhic victory. So...I'm NOT eager for war here. But, at the same time, we cant just do nothing if Russia attacks, so this is just one of those unthinkable situations, such as China invading Taiwan, or North Korea invading the south, or Japan. You dont want these things to happen. If they do happen, you have a war on your hands, and given overwhelming military might, i think the US would win, but....yeah. It would be bad if it happened, and it would be bad, if you didn't do anything about it.
Personally, I'm of the stance the US should act reactively vs other major powers like Russia or China. Try not to provoke them, but if they do something stupid, well, we have to follow our promises and game plans or the entire world falls apart. Even though thr world will fall apart anyway if we do because WWIII would be crazy destructive.
Honestly, I think that's the double edged sword involving our military position. Mutually assured destruction has deterred major powers from fighting, but if it DOES happen, it will be BAD. WWI and WWII were really bad. I mean, they were some of the most horrifying conflicts ever fought on this planet. And a third one would be disastrous. Let's hope it doesn't come to that, and hope that the mere threat of counter response keeps the Russians at bay. I mean it's worked for the past 75 years, it should hopefully work now.
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