So, guys, it's happened. Russia is doing it. They're invading eastern Ukraine. I already discussed the core geopolitical forces at work encouraging this, but that's not the official story Russia is putting out. While Russia is thinking in terms of geopolitics, Putin is claiming that the Russian population there want's to declare themselves independent from Ukraine, and they're "recognizing" it and sending in a "peace keeping force".
This is nonsense by the way. Russia was astroturfing this movement for years, explicitly so they could pull this crap. Most of the support here is fabricated to my knowledge, with Russia using social media manipulation in a blatant attempt to manufacture consent. Most Ukrainians do NOT support becoming part of Russia.
This is not uncommon for Russia. They pulled the same stuff in 2014 with Crimea, after all. But let's face it. Most Ukrainians want to be independent of Russia, and Russia wants that land to serve as a buffer zone between them and the west. That's what's really going on. It's just raw, naked geopolitics and imperialism. As I like to say with politics, there's the reason, and then there's the reason behind the reason. One his a politically correct pretext, the other is the real reason.
Anyway, now that Russia did it, we're in dangerous territory. This could ignite WWIII, if this doesn't make WWIII inevitable. I want to remind you guys of WWII. Hitler invaded the Sudetenland under a similar pretext as Putin is using now. And at first, the western allies tried to appease him by letting him do what he wanted. But then he started invading other crap and WWII eventually started.
That's the danger we're in now. We could turn a blind eye to this, but Putin could treat that blind eye as weakness and keep pushing his luck until we DO get in a conflict. At the same time, if we respond too aggressively, it could ignite a conflict here and now. Let's not forget how a rigid system of strategic alliances led to the powder keg that was WWI. We ended up getting some Arch duke shot, leading to one country declaring war on another, and then one country backing up another, and another backing up another, until everyone is fighting over something stupid and arguably avoidable.
And given how much more terrifying war is now, if we ever got into an all out war again, this might be bad. So we don't want all out conflict with Russia. But if Russia is gonna bring it, we might have to call them on it at some point.
For now, the US is responding with economic sanctions. Which i think is smart. It's a response. It could mess up Russia's economy. And this is why Russia is acting out in the first place. Again, Russia is in a state where the US and NATO can be highly effective at shutting down Russia's economy on demand. All we need to do is flip a few switches.
But for now, we don't seem to be offering boots on the ground support. Which is good. We COULD call Russia on their BS, but if we do, again, that could lead to one heck of a hot war we don't want to have. It's been common practice since the cold war never to engage russia directly, but to covertly help its enemies when they invade them. And they do it to us too. So that's how politics is played between two nuclear powers. The goal is to make these actions COSTLY without getting involved directly. If Russia wants to play games, we can play games. Confronting them directly should be a last resort only.
I want to note that despite that relative noninterventionist stance, I support Ukraine 100% in this situation, and see Russia as completely in the wrong. They're being aggressive, they're being bullies. And again, they need to be called on it. But let's use other tools in our vast arsenal before we consider a hot conflict with them.
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