So, this is going to be a quick one for me, but I want to take a sneak peek at 2024 and get an idea of how bad the damage is going to be. Basically, I'm going to take 2020's map and election results, and then I'm going to shift the results however many points of difference there is between 2024 polling and 2020 election results. We all know Biden won narrowly, and would've lost the election with only around a 1.2% shift last time, so let's look at what a theoretical 2024 map would look like.
Basically, in 2020, Joe Biden won with 306 electoral votes, to Trump's 232, with a popular vote lead of 4.4%.
This included many narrow victories, such as:
Georgia- +0.3% (16 electoral votes)
Arizona- +0.4% (11 electoral votes)
Wisconsin- +0.6% (10 electoral votes)
Pennsylvania- +1.2% (20 electoral votes)
Basically, GA, AZ, and WI alone would be enough to shift the electoral college by 37 points, leading to a 269-269 tie (which would be a narrow win for biden), with PA shifting it hard in Trump's favor, leading to a 289-249 victory for Trump.
The problem is, that Trump is currently up 5.4% in the popular vote in recent polls. This represents a 9.8% shift from 2020's election results, which is absolutely devastating to Biden.
If the election were held today, with a 9.8% shift from 2020, it would be a bloodbath for Biden. Keep in mind, 1.2% would be enough to shift it to a clear Trump win, with 0.6% being enough to bring it into 269-269 territory (which would mean a Trump win of 272-266 under the 2024 rules).
If the election results shifted 9.8%, the following states would flip to the GOP:
Michigan - +2.4% Biden in 2020
Nevada - +2.4%
Nebraska 2- +6.6%
Minnesota - +7.1%
New Hampshire- +7.3%
Maine- 9.1%
This would lead to a devastating 329-209 electoral map in favor of Trump. The next state to fall would be Virginia, which under this model would only hold on by 0.3%. Beyond that, it would get much more difficult for Trump to make inroads, but at this point, New Mexico, Colorado, and even Oregon would be in play. This is not a good map for democrats.
That said, if the 2024 election were held today, it would be a complete massacre for democrats. To be fair, both Trump and Biden may not run, or may not win their primaries if they do run. Biden's age and popularity is in question on the democratic side, with Harris being the obvious successor (oh dear god no). On the GOP side, DeSantis could be the republican fill in for Trump. While polling might be different then, Biden vs Trump is the most likely scenario, and it's going to be a bloodbath if it happens.
Oh well, as far as I'm concerned, democrats dug their own graves on this one. I mean, I tried to advocate for better candidates and policies, but no one wanted to listen. Whatever, screw it. You vote for stupid, you get stupid. What can I say?
No comments:
Post a Comment