So, I discussed the geopolitical situation in Ukraine recently, and the real reasons Russia was invading, but then RealLifeLore on youtube came out with a lengthy video discussing all that in more detail than I provided and so much more. I recommend everyone watch it, but to supplement it, this isn't just about the geopolitical positioning of NATO. That is a large part of it, and Russia is less safe from a potential hypothetical NATO invasion if Ukraine joins NATO. However, it goes a lot deeper, the causes are also economic and energy related.
Tell me, what is it said America always invades over? OIL. And that plays a huge role here. Well, natural gas. You see, Russia has a weak economy. Despite having the largest land area, when you live in a frozen wasteland 9 months of the year, you dont have a very strong and diversified economy. Russia gets a lot of its economic success from petro dollars. They are the #1 natural gas supplier to Europe, and that's how they make their money. But, Ukraine threatens that. First of all, it does so through putting tariffs on gas that goes through its territory, causing Russia to have to reroute natural gas around the country in order to avoid paying Ukraine anything. Second of all, Ukraine has a metric crapton of natural gas within its borders. Crimea was, as far as I knew, about getting access to a warm water port. But it was also about getting access to the massive natural gas and oil reserves off of its coast. There's also a lot of reserves in the eastern region of Ukraine where the separatist movements are.So....Russia wants that stuff. First of all, because their economy is based on this stuff and it seeks to expand its access to the stuff, but also because Ukraine is a potential competitor. In recent years they've been trying to make deals with Exxon and Shell to extract the stuff, and Russia can't have that. Europe really doesn't WANT to be reliant on Russia for natural gas. Mainly because of this crap. It's a national security disaster. Russia weilds a lot of power in Europe because they CAN just shut off access to their gas overnight, and that undermines some aspects of NATO's security. So if they can get their gas from Ukraine instead, then they can cut off Russia, making it irrelevant on the world stage.
That said, Russia is making a VERY desperate move here and going all in on invasion here. They went full on invasion of the whole country, hoping to blitzkrieg their way into keeping it in their sphere of influence and out of the hands of the west. And it's going poorly. Four days in, apparently they barely gained any ground. Their early shock and awe campaign isn't sustainable, and they lack supply lines to keep their advance up. Meanwhile the Ukranians are hunkering in. And this is making Russia desperate. Now they're apparently bringing in vacuum bombs, which are essentially weapons of mass destruction one step down from nukes. And I am getting kind of nervous that if Russia can't take Ukraine via more conventional means, they might rely on such weapons to force the Ukranians to surrender. I was kind of wondering why they were so desperate, but if Russia sees this as the do or die moment of their empire, where if they don't take Ukraine now, they will recede into irrelevance, I can see why they would do this. This is the last gasp of an empire that has been dying for over thirty years now, and if they don't act now, they might have lost the war for the 21st century. And you know what? I hope Ukraine breaks them. They're doing a good job so far. I don't know if they'll continue to do so if they go all vacuum bomb on them, but they're trying. Slava Ukraini! (I think/hope I said that right?)
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