Thursday, February 24, 2022

This Ukraine situation is screwed up

 So...this isn't going to be a long article, more a blurb, but I've been following the coverage for the past day, and this is messed up. Russia didn't just invade the two regions they claimed they were acting to "protect" (read: annex), they invaded the whole country. And civilians have been fleeing for their lives, some have died, some Ukrainian soldiers died. Ukraine isn't letting men under the age of 60 to leave because they're going to start conscripting, and I've been hearing reports of radiation spikes near Chernobyl, which the Russians now occupy.

It's not all bad news though. The russians have been pushed back in a lot of ways. They're losing a lot of soldiers and equipment, and morale among Russian soldiers is very low. Some are surrendering, some are deserting, tanks are getting blown up, planes and helicopters shot down. So they are incurring heavy losses. Apparently the Ukrainians retook an airport which is good. And Russia is facing massive protests at home. So that's good. While I wish no ill will against the Russian people, as many of them are forced into this mess, honestly, I hope this invasion is as costly to the Russians as possible, and I like the fact that they're being bled dry and that Ukraine isn't being a complete pushover. The world is largely united behind them, while Russia seems largely condemned.

I stand 100% behind Ukraine here, and completely condemn Russia. Yes, I know some of the online left likes to push the fact that NATO expansionism is making Russia nervous and causing them to lash out. I've actually been making that argument for years. At the same time, given this brazen aggression, yeah, no, screw Russia. Much of NATO's expansion east has been voluntary on the part of the countries involved, as they seek attention from a belligerent power like Russia, with Ukraine having been trying to get into NATO for years, and NATO kind of sitting on the issue purely out of not wanting to piss off Russia. So, no, screw Russia. We're not being imperialist here, and for anyone wanting to know why NATO still exists and why it's expanded eastward in the first place, THIS IS ####ING WHY!

Seriously, I know hating on the US is popular among the online left, but this is the game we're playing all the time. Most acts of "imperialism" on our part are mostly to draw parts of the world to our sphere of influence, where if we didn't, Russia and China would be doing this crap all the time. The world is not a nice place, and we act as a world empire explicitly to minimize the the influence of rival powers. And between this and watching China take passes at Taiwan with aircraft, I want to remind people this is why we have such a huge military. A lot of it is so that we can fight both Russia and China at the same time if needed. Our strategy is to have such overwhelming military force no one tries to challenge us. And while I do think we go a little overkill, the past few days have done a good job justifying that explicit strategy.

The US isn't perfect. Don't get me wrong. We do a lot of shady crap. But, to some extent, we act as we do explicitly because if we didn't Russia and China would have free reign to do whatever they want, and trust me, they would be far worse. 

Speaking of the US's response so far. It's mostly sanctions so far, and I approve of that. I've been leery of what we should be doing here, recognizing if we do nothing it could embolden more aggression, but at the same time, if we get involved directly, it could spiral to WW3. So remaining out of it militarily but imposing sanctions that seem to have some teeth and seem to be screwing up economy really good. That's appropriate given the circumstances. Keep in mind Ukraine isnt part of NATO. It's been wanting to get in, but we've been sitting on our hands with it. And Russia, whose geopolitical strategy seems to rely on expanding as far west as possible to prevent troops from gathering on its borders and being able to invade, the way they're doing right now, has been completely opposed to it, hence the invasion (allegedly). It's possible though, and it's been argued that Russia wants to reconstitute the old soviet union, of which Ukraine was a part of. So...yeah. 

Anyway, that's all I have to say on the subject in general. Honestly, I hope this doesn't spiral to WW3. And I hope the Ukranians give the Russians hell. They probably won't win in terms of a formal military conflict (although given their size they're doing an admirable job), but if they can make occupying Ukraine as painful as possible, they might eventually have to give up and leave.

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