Monday, February 28, 2022

Putin's actions seem to be backfiring hard

 So...as I watch coverage of the ukraine conflict, I cant help but feel like we're seeing a massive realignment in international politics, and it's not going well for Russia. Russia claims a core argument for invading Ukraine was it being afraid of it joining NATO. Well...congratulations, Putin, you just guaranteed its existence for the past 50 years. Sweden and Finland are considering joining. Kosovo wants to fast track its membership. Germany is expanding its military budget and will be meeting its 2% nato requirements which weren't being enforced (accomplishing a goal Trump had but failed to get anywhere in pushing). And even SWITZERLAND is freaking taking a side and sanctioning Russia.

Meanwhile, Russia's invasion makes it look like a joke. They've already lost more soldiers than we did of all of Iraq. They're losing entire columns of tanks and vehicles to anti tank fire, and so far I only know of them taking ONE decently sized Ukrainian city. They have poor logistics, their troops are low on morale, and Ukraine so far is arguably WINNING. Russia though it could blitzkrieg it's way into the country, but it's failing miserably, and looking like a paper tiger in the process.

The economic consequences are imploding their economy too and turning their billionaire class against them. And ultimately Putin is looking more and more desperate as he threatens to use nukes, because nothing else is going his way. 

Honestly, does Putin not understand he shook up the hornet's nest and turned the entire international community against him? Or is he just in too deep to pull out at this point? Either way, the further he digs in, the worse it gets for him. He's turning the entire international community other than other authoritarian regimes and puppet states against him. He's guaranteeing the relevance of NATO for the next generation. And if he fails to succeed in Ukraine, Russia's influence is going to be weaker than ever. 

Seriously. I'm not kidding. Putin lost as many troops in 4-5 days as we did in 8 years of Iraq. When we invade, it goes smoothly, it's the occupation of territory for years afterwards is the problem. Putin is losing manpower and machinery like crazy. They look  so weak right now. Like they don't have their crap together and that despite their intimidating military force, that force is nowhere near what the west can manage. If they cant even succeed in Ukraine, they really dont stand a chance vs the west. The only thing keeping them relevant is lots of meat shields to throw at the enemy and nukes. 

While I can't imagine NATO ever invading Russia like Putin seems to fear (and I believe doing so would be a disaster), NATO is winning the moral and geopolitical arguments outside of Russia's borders. And I wouldnt be surprised if we fast track Ukraine into NATO after all of this. BOOM, now NATO is literally on Russia's doorstep, which is exactly what it was trying to prevent. Congratulations, Vlad, you played yourself.

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