So, between candidates dropping out and stuff like that, the New Hampshire race has shifted. So I'm just going to throw out the latest numbers here on the subject.
Trump- 54.3%
Haley- 36.8%
DeSantis- 7.5%
DeSantis dropped out, and it's hard to know where his supporters will go, so....
Anyway, Trump's up 17.5%, he's over 50%, and even if every Desantis voter went to Haley, Trump is still likely to win. Heck, if they did that, then Haley would have 44.3%, and be down 10% vs Trump.
And at 10%, with a 4 point assumed margin of error like I normally go for....
We're talking Haley having a 0.62% chance of winning. Which means Trump has a 99.38% chance of winning. And that's the BEST CASE SCENARIO.
So yeah. I ain't predicting a breakthrough moment here.
And of course, while I'm here, might as well do the democratic side:
Democratic primary
Biden- 70.0%
Williamson- 7.0%
Phillips- 3.3%
It's over before it started. And this is with Biden not even on the ballot. We're screwed. For as much as I talk about Marianne Williamson and Dean Phillips, neither of them have a shot. Won't stop me from voting for them when the time comes but let's face it. I'm as irrelevant as one of those anti war protesters screaming for a cease fire and gluing themselves to the sidewalk.
This is a very depressing election year.
So yeah. Trump and Biden are gonna win, they have a near 100% chance (MAYBE a 99.4% chance at worst assuming EVERY DESANTIS VOTER goes for Haley, which they won't). And yeah. There will be no upsets. And this is the only place where we can have an upset. This is depressing.
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