Primary predictions

 So it has come to my attention that the iowa republican primary is in 4 days. I'm likely not going to keep making detailed predictions over coming months, as it's a waste of time, but I do want to explain the situation before it begins.

Republican primary

So the republicans are going to have a traditional primary schedule. They're gonna start out with Iowa with a caucus, then New Hampshire will go a week later. Then Nevada and the Virgin Islands, then South Carolina, and then a few other states before super Tuesday on the 5th of March. 

I bring up tradition because...the democrats...aren't doing that. I'll go into what they're doing and give some choice words on the matter when I get there, but yeah, the parties are behaving a bit differently this year.

As far as the polls go nationally:

Trump- 61.1%

Haley- 11.3%

DeSantis- 10.9%

And I'm not even gonna go into the others since they stand no chance and half have dropped out by now anyway. 

But yeah. Trump has a 49.8% lead. That's over 12 margins of error away (assuming 4 points), and WELL out of the statistical probability of actually being challenged. Trump has a de facto 100% chance of winning.

It is far more likely Trump would be forced to stop campaigning due to legal or health issues at this point, than to be beaten at the ballot box. Even if they all went in on Haley, and everyone who wants someone other than Trump went for Haley, they would only have a combined 30.0%, and Trump would still be up by 31.1%, or around 7.78 margins of error. Still a near 100% chance. I mean, you can basically stop counting after 12 points in all honesty. This is in "Biden winning California" territory (and given Biden's abysmal numbers that might actually be slightly more statistically likely than Haley beating Trump). 

So yeah. It's over.

Still, it is good to look at early primary states, sometimes you see insurgent candidates putting all their money and resources there, hoping that they can beat an entrenched challenger one state at a time by raising their profile early and generating news coverage. After all, if the first states are close, then that could signal to people in other states that the deadline is near and that they should consider someone else. Sometimes that can have a snowball effect, toppling a challenger. So what's going on in the early states?

Iowa

Trump- 53.6%

Haley- 17.2%

Desantis- 15.2%

New Hampshire

Trump- 43.3%

Haley- 29.0%

Christie- 12.0%

Nevada

Trump- 69.0%

Desantis- 10.5%

Ramaswamy- 5.0%

South Carolina

Trump- 52.0%

Haley- 21.8%

DeSantis- 11.0%

And yeah, Trump still holds an iron grip on all four states. New Hampshire is the weakest, where Trump is only up by 14.3%, but keep in mind, that still amounts to like a 99.9998% chance or something. The only way the establishment of the GOP could pull off a win is if everyone backed out and cleared a lane for Haley. Admittedly, Christie just did so, so maybe Haley's numbers will become more competitive, but yeah, I'm not really seeing a path to victory here for anyone but Trump.

As I said, far more likely for Trump to be nailed for legal troubles forcing him to drop out, or having a freak health issue, than actually losing the primary season. People on the republican side very much want him. As I said, de facto 100% shot for Trump based on the data (note: might actually mean something like 99.9999% or something). 

Democratic primary

So....the democrats are doing something a bit differently. They aren't doing Iowa first this year, and New Hampshire, they actually got in quite a few legal battles over that one. 

No, the democrats decided that Iowa and New Hampshire are not representative of the population, and we need a state that's more "diverse".

So...they went with the state that they have zero percent chance of winning in the general, south carolina. 

Why? I'll tell you why. Because old southern black people like Biden. That's why. Remember what I said above about how it's possible for an insurgent candidate to win early states like Iowa and New Hampshire, and this could cause them to get taken more seriously where there's a snowball effect where they can upend expectations and potentially win the nomination?

yeah...the democrats...don't want that. Remember 2020. Bernie had a strong showing in Iowa and New Hampshire. He WON nevada. But then south carolina, they wanted Biden. And then the democrats decided to manufacture consent around Biden. Biden is the guy. We need Biden. Old black people in south carolina want Biden, so we want Biden too (I emphasize age and location because these are some of the most conservative black voters in the country, if they chose younger black people from a more liberal state, that wouldn't fit their narrative anywhere near as well). 

It was all about getting the guy they wanted in the first place. Biden got clobbered early on, but after they hit south carolina they went all in with the "diversity" argument and went for Biden.

It's dishonest and hacky. What the democrats are doing here, is they basically want to manufacture consent for biden. Biden is the guy, they dont want a serious primary, so basically they pushed the whole "well we need a more diverse state to choose". Okay. So why not Georgia, which is right next to south carolina, arguably equally diverse, and is actually a swing state? or north carolina, which is actually a swing state. or Michigan, or Pennsylvania. No it's not about diversity. It's about the fact that south carolina has the moderate demographics they want to set the stage for a moderate candidate, so they went with south carolina first.

This is what i mean when i say the democrats rig primaries. It's not the same as Trump claiming 2020 was rigged. 2020 was fair. Everyone voted at once and everyone's voice was heard. And there was no funny business with ballots. What I mean by rigging is them setting up the process in a way to create the outcome that they want. And that's what the democrats are doing here. It's not about diversity. It's about ensuring Biden goes as unchallenged as humanly possible, because these guys don't want a fair primary. Any other election cycle, I would be screaming bloody murder over this. I just have bigger fish to fry right now and think the conditions on the ground are a bit different. But I do notice, and it does infuriate me, and I AM calling it out. 

Of course, so is new hampshire. And they got all uppity over not being first too. To be fair, i dont LIKE the iowa and new hampshire first system either, i think it's very unfair and gives these states an outsized influence while my own state of PA never goes first. I do think the process should be more fair, and I dont really support giving one state a right to go first just because they decided to amend their constitutiuon requiring it. Still, the process should be chosen randomly, or with different states going in different orders every year.I just dont like what the democrats are doing with choosing south carolina for obviously bad faith reasons.

But anyway, new hampshire then decided screw you we're doing it first anyway. Biden decided to stay off the ballot there, although he can be written in. And the democrats fired back by saying they're not recognizing the results of the new hampshire primary. You dont play by the DNC's rules, and they'll just pretend you don't exist.

Again, this is scummy. Im not saying new hampshire is fully in the right either. I dont think theres anything sacred about one state deciding to go first every time, it seems unfair to me, but i sadly have to agree with them over the DNC because the DNC is basically being scumbags here. They dont care about democracy, they dont want a fair primary. They just want the pretense of one while getting the results they want. There. I said it. 

With that out of the way, the democrat's primary schedule is the following:

New Hampshire, then South Carolina, then Nevada and the virgin islands, then Michigan, and then they have super Tuesday, which is generally where they bring the hammer down on insurgent candidates by having tons of moderate friendly states go next to reverse whatever early leads candidates like Bernie in previous cycles would get, but again, they just wanna get straight to the point of ensuring Biden is unchallenged.

So what does polling look like?

Well, nationally, it looks even worse than it does on the republican side. Probably because most people don't even realize there is a primary going on and there are other candidates.

Biden- 69.8%

Williamson- 7.9%

Phillips- 3.2%

So Biden is up by 61.9%. That's over 15 margin of errors away from flipping. So Biden also has a de facto 100% chance of winning his primary. He's literally more likely to develop health issues due to his age than to lose at the ballot box.

As for states:

New Hampshire

Biden (write in)- 58.0%

Phillips- 9.8%

Williamson- 5.0%

South Carolina

Biden- 64.0%

Phillips- 5.0%

Williamson- 3.0%

Nevada

Biden - 78.0%

Williamson- 2.0%

Phillips- 1.0%

Michigan

Biden- 79.0%

Williamson- 9.0%

Phillips- 5.0%

So yeah, even in new Hampshire, Biden is over 50 points ahead. And it just gets worse from there. The other candidates barely register. While I do see an outside chance of some establishment cooperation leading to Nikki Haley possibly gaining some ground in the republican primary, in the democratic primary, the other candidates stand zero chance. 

Biden has a de facto 100% chance of winning. 

Conclusion

As such, I expect this to be a quite uncompetitive primary season. I expect a boring Trump vs Biden rematch. And given the numbers on that, Trump is looking good to win again. Which is scary. 

I mean, as much as I despise the DNC for how they're handling the primary here, Trump winning is another level of scary, and we should be concerned about the results of this election cycle here. 

But yeah. Both Trump and Biden have roughly a 100% chance of winning their respective primaries. If I had to guess which is more likely to have an insurgent candidate come out of nowhere, it's probably on the republican side, but honestly, it seems like this primary season is a lost cause. Which is why Im barely paying attention to numbers and already focusing on the general. 

I plan on voting in my primary. Right now Im supporting Williamson. But yeah, I expect it to be a futile vote. Most people are just gonna choose Biden. And we're gonna be stuck with him. 

I won't be doing further predictions on this unless I see a major upset forcing me to do so. Unless things really change, these predictions are going to hold true.