Ron Desantis dropped out

 So, Ron Desantis dropped out of the race. I was actually thinking of writing on this subject before it happened, as I've been seeing a lot of media seemingly pressuring him to drop out, and I wasn't sure if I agreed with it.

The thing is, the dude came in second in Iowa. He actually did have an argument to make. He beat Nikki Haley, and he should fight it out with her over becoming the de facto anti Trump choice. But it seems like the fix was in and decided it was Haley. DeSantis didnt poll particularly well in most states after Iowa, and as I said, him coming ahead of Haley complicated things. I think that he was expected to drop out after Iowa and a third place finish, but that would've made it harder for the rest of the party to display a united force behind Trump. Because Haley and DeSantis were splitting the anti Trump vote, and New Hampshire is the one state where another candidate COULD, in theory, defeat trump most easily. Not saying it would happen, but in a de facto 2 person race, there's a chance of it, as Trump only had 43% of the vote last I checked. If the other 57% united behind someone else, they could pull off an upset.

At the same time, DeSantis backed Trump, so maybe it wasn't establishment pressure at all. Or maybe that is his little way of saying F U to the establishment for pressuring him. It did kinda irritate me, seeing so many news articles saying the dude who came in second had a floundering campaign that was going nowhere and that they should drop out to back the third person who got fewer votes so far. So maybe there is some salt there, or maybe this is just me overthinking the situation, there is no real behind the scenes conspiracy, and DeSantis just decided he couldnt win. Maybe, if anything, he struck a deal with Trump to back him in exchange for a cabinet position. Maybe he expects most of his supporters to shift to Trump over Haley, giving Trump a more decisive win. I don't really know. This could go in a number of ways, and I'm not sure which it actually will. 

But yeah, we're down to a two person race in effect on the republican side (ignoring people like Asa Hutchinson who dont even got 1%). And that means this is gonna heat up. I still think Trump will walk away the winner, and I still am inclined to say a de facto 100% chance based on numbers alone, although i would like to see those numbers now that it's a two person race. Maybe different candidates dropping out will shift support elsewhere, and it's possible the numbers were a bit dated. Still, I give Trump the upper hand, and don't see Haley as having a strong chance at beating Trump, even 1 on 1. I mean, when Trump has 61% of the national vote, haley will only, at most, get 39%. That's a 22% deficit. That's 5.5 margins of error. That means she's done. No chance. But we'll see what happens.