So, Super Tuesday really culled the herd so to speak. A lot of the non dominant candidates saw the writing on the wall and decided to drop.
On the democratic side, Dean Phillips is now OUT. And I doubt he's doing a unity thing with Nikki Haley, he actually went and endorsed Biden outright.
On the republican side, things were a lot less cordial, with Nikki Haley refusing to endorse Trump outright and basically saying it's up to him to earn our votes.
The media keeps acting like there's this huge grudge between Trump and Haley and their supporters, and while I get the vibe between the two candidates themselves that yeah there is some bad blood there, the media really is hyping it up like OMG GUYS TRUMP'S REALLY BAD OFF, HALEY SUPPORTERS ARENT GONNA UNIFY, but then I look at the polling and it's overwhelmingly pro Trump. I mean, let's face it, I've been doing regular election updates, I did one the other day, Trump has nothing to worry about, he's strong, it's Biden who we have to worry about.
Because let's face it, Biden's 2020 coalition is crumbling. Trump's base IS united against him empirically, it's Biden's base that you have to worry about. Biden is down like 6 points compared to where he was in 2020, and a lot of that is him being unable to get out his own supporters, particularly leftists complaining about gaza. Im not saying this is the only reason, and even if all of those guys rejoined Biden, he'd still be down somewhat, but it is hurting him.
As such, I'm seeing a shift toward triangulation, with him making a good faith effort to grab Haley's supporters. I doubt most of them will go for it, but it does represent a rightward shift that seems to be creating tensions on the internet today. The left is, of course, calling him a sell out and a neocon and pushing the both sides are the same thing in response to this, but the blue maga people are like "well what did you expect? you ain't voting for him, so he needs to make that up somewhere else." And I agree.
The fact is, the cease fire now leftists ARENT reliable voters. Despite having a clear message of "wanting a cease fire now", they are sending a lot of mixed signals of what they actually mean, and have been deeply critical even as Biden pivots left to try to appease these guys. I myself have wondered, gee are these guys gonna back Biden? And having talked to a lot of them, I don't think they will. I think they're looking for an excuse to break with Biden over something and this happens to just be the unifying issue. And the ideology these guys have is so extreme NOTHING Biden could do is good enough barring just going full darth vader and throwing israel down the bottomless pit like he did the emperor.
I myself said that yeah, he's gonna need to make this up somewhere, and it's looking now like the move is to run to the center and try to win over moderate republicans. Which, I find cringe, dont get me wrong, i HATE this triangulation stuff as it represents capitulation and selling out of my own concerns and ideology too, but given most lefties aren't reading the room, and understanding that the left has limited bargaining power this time, I kind of have to begrudgingly support this move.
Let's face it, in 2016, the argument for the democratic party moving left was that it was popular. Bernie outpolled Hillary, and both looked like they could win 2016 easily. The whole "we need to move to the center for electability" thing didn't hold any water and was a trite campaign talking point that was a totally unnecessary compromise of our ideology. The right was on the run, 2016 could've broken the GOP as we knew it. A shift left would've been a left wing version of Reagan's "morning in America" and it would've been over, gg, no re.
In 2020, I was still in the 2016 mindset that we could still win this. 2016 seemed to be a repudiation of Hillary, rather than Trump being popular, and Bernie...still could've won in 2020 IMO. The lesson of 2016 seemed to be "yeah, don't F over your voter base". And even Biden seemed to learn that lesson in retrospect with how he governed in 2021-2023. Granted, it wasnt enough for me either at the time, and I also sought to continue the protest voting, but as we got nearer to 2024, I'm seeing the writing on the wall. And that is, Biden is deeply unpopular. There is no clear alternative to replace him. He's what we're stuck with, and him losing would represent a shift RIGHT, not LEFT. We're now in a position where the dems are screwed. It's like being stuck in the carter years again. Everything is getting blamed on Biden, the voter base is shifting right, and here are these freaking leftists screaming for a cease fire in gaza. And Biden is looking at the polls, he's trying to triangulate right on immigration, he's trying to appease the left by giving SOME aid to gaza and now apparently trying to broker a cease fire, and what's the left doing? NOT GOOD ENOUGH! BLAH BLAH BLAH BLAH BLAH!!! GENOCIDE JOE!!!!
...and you wonder why he's shifting right and trying to win moderate republicans. Y'all arent cooperating with him. Again, it's fine to pressure Biden, to "hold his feet to the fire", but at the same time, you gotta reward the dude when he DOES do some good things. He aint gonna give you 100% of what you want, and I get it, he aint my ideal candidate either. But when you try to crap on him when he meets you part of the way, it's like....yeah why even try? He can probably get more support from the center, who are reasonable, and don't ask for insane things that are literal "what color would you like your dragon" level asks. And you know what? This is gonna hurt all of us. Because future democratic presidents are gonna slam the door in our face just like they used to, and we're not gonna get anything.
Again, read the room. If the left has a solution to everything, I'm all ears. Because I dont see an alternative to Biden who can beat Trump, my own Marianne Williamson vote when I cast it is gonna be a mere virtue signal for UBI and M4A. But let's face it, there is no ideal leftist candidate who will come in and save the day. The left isn't popular this election cycle. And attacking Biden like this is just gonna be counterproductive. Like, I wanna remind you guys, i DID vote green both in 2016 and 2020, even I'm voting Biden this time. And when it comes to the general, I advise you do too. Vote your conscience in the primaries, but in the general, we gotta back this guy or we're gonna face a right wing backlash like we haven't seen in this country since the 1980s. Seriously, there isnt been an election in my lifetime (unless you count 1988, i was technically alive for that but i dont even remember it) where the right has had such an edge as they do now. Virtually all republican wins have been narrow. It's been the dems who have won by blowout margins if anything. And right now, Biden is down 3.6% in the electoral college last I looked. He's down 2% in the popular vote, which translates to being down like 5% in the electoral college. This aint gonna be a huge huge HUGE blowout for trump, but as it stands, this is a repudiation of the democrats. Im not gonna deny to some extent this is their fault, I feared they would dig themselves into a hole like this by going centrist in the first place, but at the same time, a lot of it isn't his fault, and a lot of the grievances against him just aren't justified.
So yeah. I suggest we all get comfortable holding our nose and voting for Biden. Not saying we have to like it, but this entire election keeps coming back around to "ugh, Biden it is, I guess...", and I just don't see an option other than that in the general. We can either support this guy, and hope for the best, or we can contribute to sabotaging and undermining the guy, which will throw the election to Trump, and possibly cause great damage not just to the nation, but our movement at large. Seriously you think this is gonna help the left? It's not. It's just gonna enable the overton window to move right. We have no ground to stand on here. I suggest people on the left read the room and come back to reality. I hate to sound like a blue MAGA guy here, but I'm just calling it as I see it.
No comments:
Post a Comment