So, in a twist that surprises literally no one, Donald Trump has swept the Super Tuesday states so far. He did lose Washington DC to Nikki Haley the other night, and might lose Vermont to Haley (edit: he just did), but other than that, the country seems very united behind Trump.
Joe Biden is also doing about as good as you'd expect, although apparently he lost American Samoa to some dude I never heard of named Jason Palmer. The vote count was 51-40, so not many people voted, and an upset was possible because of such a small sample size. Dean Phillips and Marianne Williamson did horrible, and most defectors seemed to endorse uncommitted, telling me their top issue is the cease fire now stuff. The results vary by state, but most worrying, around 20% of people so far are voting uncommitted in Minnesota, and 12% in North Carolina, both swing states. In most other areas, the "uncommitted" vote so far is under 10%, although often significantly ahead of the combined support for Phillips and Williamson, who seem to be way down in the single digits, sometimes scoring as low as 2-3%.
I'll come back to why I find this concerning a bit later, but first, i want to tackle mainstream media's obsession. Their narrative is very different from how I see this. They're looking at Trump's wins and being like "oh, I don't know, 20-40% are voting for Nikki Haley, will the party unite behind Trump for November?" Of course they will. I saw one of the youtubers I follow talk about a poll recently about how Trump's support is identical to what it was in 2020, the reason the polls have shifted is people aren't unifying behind BIDEN. And that's MY real concern. People will unite behind Trump, the base loves Trump, and sure, never Trumpers exist, but it's cope to expect mass defections from Trump based on current polling. Trump's base is ride or die on the guy. Enthusiasm is high. The real question is whether Biden can match it, and that's the real kicker, isn't it?
The fact is, Biden is unpopular, and his voter base is all over the place. He was never what most people wanted, many fell in line just to get Trump out, and a lot of people are feeling regret over that, wishing they joined me in voting green, because what choice do they have in 2024? The same one they had in 2020. And while in 2020, both sides were fired up, but Biden edged the Trump base out narrowly, now Trump's base is STILL united behind him, whereas Biden's is not.
And this cease fire now campaign is just another symptom of this. It's like in civilization games where happiness gets low enough and people start revolting. We're getting that here, with people revolting within the democratic base against Biden. To some extent, it was inevitable, Biden was never what most people wanted, even me, and I called this a while back. But, as I said, the most organized revolt is over a ceasefire in gaza. And by ceasefire, they dont actually mean a cease fire, but a more permanent peace deal. With kinda sums up the intelligence level of a lot of the people we're dealing with. They don't even know what they're for. But they're angry against Biden, and they're using this as their issue to make a stand on. IN my experience, most of these guys are leftists who were looking for an excuse to defect, and are doing it over this. Many of them are very extreme, and seem to have unrealistic standards. As Biden TRIES to pivot that way, they're criticizing him for not being sincere, or doing it fast enough, or doing it properly, it's like they're moving the goal posts. They wont say the goalposts are moved, but rather they were never met at all, but after 5 months of this crap, I'm SO DONE with these people. Their standards are unrealistic, and Im starting to think theyre a lost cause. Because a lot of them are too radical to deal with anyway. Keep in mind what I've been saying about liberals and leftists. I'm a liberal, I might use electoral pressure to defect from the dems sometimes to force them left, but these leftists, man, are something else. They have an entirely different and more radical value system and it's like nothing a liberal can or will ever do is good enough for them, as they're just gonna screech for more and more extreme solutions. Ive been watching this behavior since 2020. These are the guys who were for "force the vote" and attacking AOC, and screaming at people in public, and just acting like self righteous uncivil jack###es. I really am not sure that the left ever CAN appeal to these people properly. And now they're kinda rat####ing the entire democratic party over this issue, pushing standards that are unrealistic and Biden will never reach without just burning bridges with israel completely and potentially starting a major regional conflict. It's insane.
Will these people make enough of a big deal to influence the election? I can't say they, by themselves, are entirely responsible for Biden's bad poll numbers, but they could impact it. Keep in mind, Biden won last time by 1.2% in net in the electoral college. He only has that much error to lose compared to last time if Trump's support stays identical to 2020. And right now, he's down by like 6 compared to 2020. 4 in the most easily winnable states, but sometimes as much as 8-10 in some states. This is BAD.
I don't think Trump has to worry about his party unifying behind him, they already are, and while they might lose some defectors here and there, primary leads are commanding, and Trump's support within the party seems very high, with a lot of people very enthused for him. It's the wavering support for Biden that concerns me. Im not sure that the base that united behind him last time and barely won it for him will do it again. We dont need to lose many supporters vs 2020 to flip it to Trump. Keep in mind Biden BARELY won in my own estimation. And Im shocked the dems did as well as they did in 2022. But right now, the reason the polls are as they are is because the base IS united behind trump. They ARE telling pollsters they will be there for Trump. What isn't happening is people rushing to back up Biden. THis kind of enthusiasm gap is what led to Clinton losing in 2016. We are repeating that right now, except unlike in 2016 where the polls were generally ahead for Clinton, Biden is now significantly behind. Im not saying that things cant change for Biden. We still got 8 months until election day, and if you recall my original forecasts in mid 2016, i thought Trump was screwed by similar margins as Biden is now, and look who won. So it's not impossible, but when I have Trump at an 82% chance, yeah, that's pretty bad for Biden, and he seriously needs to get his head in the game and start the difficult process of herding cats to support him. Because that's basically what the democratic base is right now. it's like herding cats. Except all the democrats seem to know how to do is to bully and intimidate voters, which won't work. Although im not sure appeasing them will work either. I really hope they can figure out an electoral strategy here, because not even I have one at this point. I feel like Im watching the titanic run into the iceberg in real time. I see it, I know it's there, people who are in the know, know it's there, a lot of people are pretending it doesnt exist or acting like it will magically melt or disappear or that it's a mirage, but uh...yeah. It's here, and we need to figure out a way around it NOW.
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